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Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The market has made this the clear favourite at 3.8, and there is something to back that up — she finished third here at the Curragh just 22 days ago, beaten by the narrowest of margins. That recent form, combined with familiarity with this track, makes her the obvious benchmark in the field. None of her three races have come on dry ground though, so today's conditions are still a question mark despite the confidence the odds imply.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (3 career races)
- Market favourite (3.8)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The market has made this the clear favourite at 3.8, and there is something to back that up — she finished third here at the Curragh just 22 days ago, beaten by the narrowest of margins. That recent form, combined with familiarity with this track, makes her the obvious benchmark in the field. None of her three races have come on dry ground though, so today's conditions are still a question mark despite the confidence the odds imply.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (3 career races)
- Market favourite (3.8)
A first-time runner with no form to assess, but the jockey-trainer pairing of Colin Keane and G M Lyons is one of the most potent in Irish racing — they win together roughly 1 in 5 races. She is by Pinatubo, one of the highest-rated two-year-olds seen in Europe in recent years, which hints at real quality in the bloodline. Debutantes from powerful yards with top riders often arrive ready to perform, and this one fits that profile.
- Racecourse debut
She was beaten by just a fifth of a length last time out at Limerick — as close as you can get without winning — and that near-miss is the most compelling recent piece of form in this field. She holds the highest official rating here at 78, suggesting she is at least on a par with, or better than, the others who carry ratings. The question is whether she can convert that near-miss into a win on ground she has never raced on before.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (3 career races)
The most experienced horse in the field with four races under her belt, and she has finished in the top three in three of them — a level of consistency none of her rivals can match. She was beaten by just half a length at Killarney five days ago, so she arrives here in the form of her life and racing quickly while that momentum is fresh. The only worry is that none of those runs have come on dry ground, making today's conditions an untested variable for a horse who otherwise looks the one they all have to beat.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Runs again after just 5 days
Ridden by Ryan Moore, who wins roughly 1 in 3 races with this trainer — that is one of the strongest jockey-trainer combinations in the sport — but the horse's own form is patchy at best, with a best finish of third from three races. Her most recent run was a well-beaten seventh, which is the wrong direction of travel heading into this. The pedigree of the partnership demands respect, but the form makes it hard to be confident.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (3 career races)
Nine months off the track is a long time, and she returns without a single win or placed finish from her two previous runs — the longest absence in this field by some distance. Oisin Murphy is a top-class jockey, but this is his first time partnering this horse, so there is no established relationship to lean on. Very hard to make a case for her on what we know.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (2 career races)
- Absent 267 days (longest in field)
Making her racecourse debut today, so there is literally no form to analyse — everything about how she will handle race day is unknown. She is by Cotai Glory out of a Pivotal mare, a breeding profile that hints at speed over a sharp distance like this 7f. Debutantes can surprise, but you are backing potential rather than evidence.
- Racecourse debut
One run, one placed finish — and crucially, that debut came right here at the Curragh three weeks ago, making her the only runner with course experience at this track. That's a meaningful edge in a field full of horses finding their way, and today's dry conditions should be no issue. Jockey Ben Coen wins roughly 1 in 8 races with this trainer, which is a steady partnership worth respecting.
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
Just one race on the clock — a fourth place at Leopardstown — and that was on ground very different to today's dry conditions, which is an unknown we simply can't account for. The odds have collapsed dramatically, drifting out to 21.0 from a very short price, which suggests those closest to the horse don't fancy its chances here. The thinnest profile in the field, and not much to build a case on.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
One race, an eighth-place finish, and then eight months off the track — that is the complete CV, and it raises more questions than it answers. Coming back from such a long absence without any winning form to point to makes this one very hard to assess. Even in a wide-open field like this, the lack of evidence makes it difficult to get excited.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
Two races, two finishes well back in the field — seventh and eighth — and neither came on dry ground, so today's conditions are uncharted territory. Running again after just seven days is a quick turnaround, and at odds of 101.0, the market has little faith. Honestly, there is not much here to suggest a big run is coming.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (2 career races)
- Runs again after just 7 days
Finished 13th on her only outing seven days ago, beaten by 31 lengths — a bruising introduction to racing by any measure. Back again just a week later, which is a rapid turnaround after such a difficult experience, and the 101.0 odds tell you what the market thinks. There is simply nothing here to suggest a turnaround is coming this quickly.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
- Runs again after just 7 days
One Look is the clear top-rated horse, 5 lbs clear of her nearest rivals, and this course is her favourite playground — three wins from six races at the Curragh, including over this exact distance, is a record none of her rivals can get close to. She finished second here just three weeks ago and arrives fit and familiar with every inch of this track. The one note of caution is that she has never won on fast, dry ground in three attempts, which is worth keeping in mind given today's conditions.
- Top rated by 5lbs
- Course specialist (3 wins from 6 here)
- Has won over this course and distance
- Market favourite (2.04)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?One Look is the clear top-rated horse, 5 lbs clear of her nearest rivals, and this course is her favourite playground — three wins from six races at the Curragh, including over this exact distance, is a record none of her rivals can get close to. She finished second here just three weeks ago and arrives fit and familiar with every inch of this track. The one note of caution is that she has never won on fast, dry ground in three attempts, which is worth keeping in mind given today's conditions.
- Top rated by 5lbs
- Course specialist (3 wins from 6 here)
- Has won over this course and distance
- Market favourite (2.04)
With three wins from just five races, Dreamasar has the best win rate in this field by some distance — roughly 1 in every 2 races, which is remarkable at any level. She drops down two classes from the company she usually keeps, which on paper looks like a golden opportunity. The concern is her last run, where she finished fourth and beaten nearly four lengths at Newcastle, and her odds have drifted slightly suggesting punters aren't entirely convinced.
- Drops 2 classes from usual level
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 2)
Nyra is the highest-rated horse in the field — 5 lbs clear of the favourite — and yet has never actually won a race in two outings, which makes her a fascinating puzzle. Like Moody, she has never raced on dry ground, a shared concern for both of the market's mid-range players today. Her odds have drifted significantly from 5.5 to 8.0, suggesting the market is growing cautious, and it's hard to argue against that with no wins on the board and untested ground conditions.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (2 career races)
Rhapsody is the lowest-rated runner in the field, rated 8 lbs below the field average, and faces a steep climb against this quality of opposition. Her last win came in much lower-grade company at York nearly a year ago, and she finished fourth at Ascot last time out, beaten over two lengths. The odds shortening from 15s to 9s is eye-catching and Ryan Moore is a top rider, but on ratings alone she has the most to prove here.
- Mid-range in the market (9.0)
Two races, two wins — Moody has a perfect record and is arguably the sharpest on recent form among the dangers to the favourite, with her last win coming at Gowran Park just over ten weeks ago. The big unknown is that she has never raced on dry ground before, which is a genuine question mark on today's fast conditions. She is lightly raced and there is clearly more to come, but how she handles the ground is the key unknown.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (2 career races)
This is a horse who has won at the very highest level before, including a Class 1 win at Newmarket, but her last two runs have been awful — beaten 12 and a half lengths at Ascot and 10 and a half at Newmarket. She arrives here needing to bounce back sharply, and the odds drifting inward slightly from 17s to 15s suggests a little quiet optimism, but the recent form makes it hard to get excited.
- Best record on this ground (1 from 6)
Subsonic has one notable thing in her favour that most rivals don't — she has actually won over this course and distance before, at the Curragh nearly ten months ago. However, her last two runs have been poor, including an eighth-place finish at Navan, and she has never won on dry ground in three attempts. At odds of 41.0, the market is treating that course win as a distant memory, and the current form makes it hard to argue otherwise.
- Has won over this course and distance
- Never raced on dry ground
- Best record at this trip (1 from 3)
With 17 races and just one win, Spicy Margarita is by far the most experienced horse in a field that averages eight races per runner — but experience hasn't translated into results. She has never won at the Curragh in six attempts here, and her odds drifting from 51s to 67s tells you the market has little faith today. Racing on dry ground for the first time adds another unknown to an already difficult profile.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Most experienced (17 runs, field avg 8)
The best career win rate in this field — winning roughly 1 in 3 races — and arrived here off the back of a Class 2 win at Epsom last month, which is solid form. The problem is he has never won on normal or dry ground in four attempts, and today's fast, dry conditions look like a significant question mark against his name.
- Best record on this ground (1 from 4)
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The best career win rate in this field — winning roughly 1 in 3 races — and arrived here off the back of a Class 2 win at Epsom last month, which is solid form. The problem is he has never won on normal or dry ground in four attempts, and today's fast, dry conditions look like a significant question mark against his name.
- Best record on this ground (1 from 4)
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
The market favourite at 8.5, and for good reason — three wins from just 10 races is an impressive return for a four-year-old, and he won right here at the Curragh two races ago. His record on dry ground is strong, winning half of his four attempts on that surface, which makes today's conditions a positive rather than a worry.
- Market favourite (8.5)
Three straight top-three finishes, including a third right here at the Curragh 20 days ago, shows a horse in solid current form. However, he has never raced on dry ground before and has failed to win in four attempts on normal ground — both of which are real concerns given today's fast, dry conditions at the Curragh.
- Never raced on dry ground
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
One of the stronger recent-form horses in the race, with three straight top-three finishes including a win at Chester 21 days ago — and his record on normal ground is outstanding, winning half of his 14 races on that surface. The complication is that today's dry conditions shade towards firmer ground, where his record drops sharply to just 1 win from 13 attempts.
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
The most exciting profile in the field on pure numbers — two wins from just four races, with a top-three finish in three of them, is a remarkable record for a three-year-old stepping into a 21-runner field. The concern is he's never raced on dry ground, so today's fast conditions are a completely unknown quantity for a horse still early in his career.
- Never raced on dry ground
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
Joint-top-rated in the field alongside Keke, and was only beaten by under a length when third here at the Curragh just 20 days ago — so this track clearly suits. Four wins from 14 races at a young age shows a horse still on the way up, though the market has drifted noticeably from a very short opening price, which is worth noting.
- 2nd highest rated (OR 101)
Just one win from 21 races is a difficult record to look past, and that single win didn't come on dry ground — where this horse has never won in eight attempts. Struggled on left-handed galloping tracks too, which is exactly what the Curragh is, making this a hard horse to get excited about here.
- Mid-range in the market (17.0)
One of only a handful of horses in this field who has actually won at the Curragh before — twice — which is a significant edge in a 21-runner race. Wins roughly 1 in 3 of its races across a 24-race career, and arrives here on the back of a win at Naas, though the market has drifted sharply from what looked like a very short price. That drift is a concern, but the course form is real and shouldn't be ignored.
- One of few course winners (2 wins here)
A horse whose best form has come on all-weather surfaces — winning 4 of 6 races on that surface — but who has never won on dry or firm turf in seven combined attempts. Back-to-back poor runs at Cork and the Curragh suggest he's not firing at the moment, and today's dry ground looks like it's working against him.
- Among the fancied runners (14.5)
One win from 23 races — roughly 1 in every 23 attempts — makes this one of the most difficult horses to fancy in the field. Has been beaten in 11 straight attempts on left-handed galloping tracks, and the Curragh is exactly that, making this a horse that looks to be running out of chances here.
- Among the more experienced (23 career races)
The only horse in the field who has won over this exact course and distance, which is a genuine standout fact in a field of 21. Drew in stall one, which is statistically the worst part of the track at this course and distance, and at 8 years old with a moderate win rate, he needs everything to go right — but that course-and-distance win is a hard fact to ignore.
- Has won over this course and distance
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
Our selection, rated alongside the joint-top pair but currently drifting out to 26s in the market — making him look interesting on paper for those who follow form over price. Three straight top-three finishes including a win and a second at this track suggest current form is strong, though he has never raced on dry ground before, which is a genuine unknown at this course and distance.
- Never raced on dry ground
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
- Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Finished 12th here at the Curragh just 20 days ago, and has yet to win at this track in five attempts — a consistent blank against his name at the venue. His last winning race came nearly a year ago, and with a rating below the field average, it's hard to see what changes today.
- Mid-range in the market (19.0)
In the form of her life right now — a win and a near-miss second at Fairyhouse in the last 17 days shows a horse peaking at exactly the right moment. The worry is she's yet to win at the Curragh in five attempts, and her best form has come over longer distances than today's six furlongs.
- Placed in 2 of last 3 races
One of the least experienced horses in the field at just nine career races, and has never won on dry ground in five attempts — which today's conditions demand. Finished a close second at Naas 24 days ago showing some form, but the ground question and a rating below the field average make this hard to recommend.
- Relatively inexperienced (9 career races)
Both career wins have come right here at the Curragh, which makes her one of the few genuine course specialists in this field — that's worth noting. However, she's failed to win in 8 attempts on left-handed galloping tracks overall, and hasn't won on dry ground, creating a real contradiction between course form and ground conditions.
- One of few course winners (2 wins here)
Won right here at the Curragh 20 days ago, which is an obvious positive, but has never raced on dry ground before — a significant unknown given today's conditions. Three straight top-three finishes show strong current form, though his overall win rate of roughly 1 in 7 across 22 races suggests he's not a horse who wins consistently.
- Never raced on dry ground
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
By far the most experienced horse in the race with 55 career runs — the field average is just 20 — and crucially, two of his seven career wins have come right here at the Curragh, making him one of only a few genuine course specialists in this field. He carries the lowest weight, which helps in a big field, but his record on dry ground is poor and he's rated 8 to 12 pounds below the top horses.
- Carries lowest weight in field
- Course specialist (2 wins from 6 here)
- Most experienced (55 runs, field avg 20)
Returning just six days after his last run, which is a very quick turnaround in a competitive field, and the jockey-trainer combination here has yet to win together in four attempts. He's also never raced on dry ground, and has failed to win in 10 attempts at right-handed galloping tracks — the Curragh fits that profile exactly.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Runs again after just 6 days
- Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Returning from a 211-day absence — the longest break of any horse in this field — which makes him by far the biggest unknown on the card. Has never raced on dry ground, and his only win came on an all-weather surface at Dundalk, leaving several unanswered questions heading into a competitive 21-runner turf race.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Absent 211 days (longest in field)
The lowest-rated horse in the field, sitting 12 pounds below the field average, and has never raced on dry ground before in 16 career attempts. Racing again just seven days after his last run and with no wins together for this jockey-trainer combination, the data here points firmly in one direction.
- Lowest rated, 12lbs below average
- Never raced on dry ground
- Runs again after just 7 days
The market favourite at 4.1 and shortening, and she backs that up with the best record on today's dry ground in the entire field — three wins from six races in these conditions, or 50%. She's also the only runner whose price has shortened heading into the race, suggesting confident money is coming in. A fourth-place finish at Ascot last time out is the only mild concern, but this horse clearly loves fast ground and the market is saying so loudly.
- Best record on this ground (3 from 5)
- Market favourite (4.1)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The market favourite at 4.1 and shortening, and she backs that up with the best record on today's dry ground in the entire field — three wins from six races in these conditions, or 50%. She's also the only runner whose price has shortened heading into the race, suggesting confident money is coming in. A fourth-place finish at Ascot last time out is the only mild concern, but this horse clearly loves fast ground and the market is saying so loudly.
- Best record on this ground (3 from 5)
- Market favourite (4.1)
Joint top-rated alongside Jakajaro at 110, and she's the second choice in the market at 4.8 and shortening — the editorial tip has her heading the danger list for good reason. She wins roughly 1 in every 2 races she's entered, a better win rate than any other fancied runner here, and her form figures show consistent top-two finishes. The one open question is whether she can replicate her best after a fourth at Ascot last time, but she arrives fresh and confident money is backing her.
- 2nd in the market (4.8)
The most experienced horse in the field with 26 races under his belt, and he comes in as one of only two runners rated above the field average at +3, but his last run was a 13th-place finish at Ascot which is hard to ignore. His record on dry ground is a concern — just one win from nine races in those conditions, which is precisely what he faces today. There are more compelling options in this field.
- One of the more successful in the field (7 career wins)
The editorial selection and joint top-rated alongside Havana Anna at 110, making him the highest-rated horse in the field by five pounds over the average. He's the most seasoned runner here with 31 races to his name — nearly double the field average — and his two wins in the last six races suggest he's in decent nick. The one honest concern is that he has never won on dry ground in five attempts, which is precisely what he faces today.
- Most experienced (31 runs, field avg 16)
The best career win rate in the entire field — four wins from just seven races, meaning he wins more than half the time he races — and he has the best record at today's five-furlong trip too, winning two from three at this distance. The problem is a 16th-place collapse at Ascot last time, which is impossible to paper over ahead of a Group 2. If that Royal Ascot run was a blip rather than a trend, Ryan Moore is the man to find out.
- Best record at this trip (2 from 3)
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 2)
The standout course expert in this field — four wins from eight races at the Curragh makes this the track he calls home, and no other runner here matches that record. The catch is that today's dry ground is entirely new territory for him; every single one of those course wins came on softer conditions. Recent form has been modest too, so he needs to prove he can handle fast ground before punters get too excited.
- Course specialist (4 wins from 8 here)
- Never raced on dry ground
He's been remarkably consistent lately with three straight top-three finishes including a win at York, but his odds have drifted badly from 11-1 out to 20-1 which suggests the market isn't convinced he can step up to Group 2 company — and he drops two class levels to get here, so that's the right question to ask. His record on dry ground reads zero wins from three races, which is a red flag for today's conditions. Hard to fancy at this level.
- Drops 2 classes from usual level
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
She's a course specialist with two wins from four races at the Curragh, so she knows this track, but she arrives rated 12 pounds below the field average — the biggest gap of any runner here — which tells its own story about the class jump she faces. A sixth-place finish at Ascot 29 days ago on a similar stage doesn't inspire confidence. At 34-1, the market has made its view clear.
- Course specialist (2 wins from 4 here)
One of only a handful of runners with a previous win at the Curragh, which counts for something at a track where knowing the layout matters. However, his recent form is alarming — a 19th-place finish at Ascot just 29 days ago, and no wins in his last six races. On dry ground he has zero wins from four attempts, so the conditions don't help his cause either.
- One of few course winners (1 wins here)
Arrives here dropping two class levels from his usual company, which on paper makes this a more manageable task, and he's won three of his last 19 races with a string of consistent top-three finishes recently including a win at Cork 34 days ago. The odds of 29-1 reflect the class jump up to Group 2 level, which is a significant ask. His record on dry ground is also blank — no wins from three attempts — and that combination makes him a long shot here.
- Drops 2 classes from usual level
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
The market favourite and second only to Carry The Flag in the official ratings, which explains why punters have been backing him in. He's lightly raced with just two outings, but his Ascot run — sixth, beaten less than two lengths — came in what is typically a stronger contest than this, which is an encouraging sign. Ryan Moore, who wins roughly 1 in 3 races alongside this trainer, takes the ride.
- Lightly raced (2 career races)
- Market favourite (2.22)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The market favourite and second only to Carry The Flag in the official ratings, which explains why punters have been backing him in. He's lightly raced with just two outings, but his Ascot run — sixth, beaten less than two lengths — came in what is typically a stronger contest than this, which is an encouraging sign. Ryan Moore, who wins roughly 1 in 3 races alongside this trainer, takes the ride.
- Lightly raced (2 career races)
- Market favourite (2.22)
The only horse in this field who has already won at this exact course and distance — a fact that sets him apart from every rival. However, he then ran at Ascot and finished 15th, beaten over seven lengths, so the jury is out on whether that Curragh win was as strong as it looked. This is only his third race, he's lightly raced and unexposed, but the Ascot flop is hard to ignore at the odds.
- Only course winner (1 from 1 here)
- Only winner at this distance
- Has won over this course and distance
- Lightly raced (2 career races)
The top-rated horse in this field by some margin and the only one to win roughly 2 in every 5 races — the best record here. He's finished in the top three in every race he's ever run, bounced back from a poor Ascot run with a win at Naas, and carries the expert verdict firmly in his favour. The wearable cheekpieces are worth noting, and his excellent record on dry ground makes today's conditions ideal.
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 2)
Shares the same official rating as Confucius, so on paper these two are level — but Immortal Guard has never raced on today's dry ground, which is a genuine unknown. He has placed in every race he's run, including a win and a third at this course, so the track holds no fears. However, he hasn't raced for 55 days and steps up to Group 2 company for the first time, making this a tougher ask.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (2 career races)
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
Won at Fairyhouse just over a month ago and arrives here in good form, having also run second at this course earlier in the season. Like Immortal Guard, he's never raced on dry ground, so today's fast conditions are an untested factor. He's drifted in from a longer price, which suggests punters see something here, but he lacks an official rating to compare with the top horses.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (2 career races)
Won on debut at Navan but then finished 14th at Ascot, beaten nearly ten lengths — a result that mirrors what several others in this field experienced there. He drifted out in the betting from an already long price, and the jockey-trainer combination has yet to win a race together. With no official rating published, it's difficult to place him against the top horses on merit.
- Lightly raced (2 career races)
Officially rated 8 lb below the likes of Carry The Flag and Confucius — the lowest-rated runner in the field by a clear margin. He won at Listowel and placed three times in a row before a very poor Ascot run, finishing 16th beaten 12 lengths, and the step up to Group 2 level looks a big ask. At odds of 29, the market is telling a clear story here.
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
The clear top-rated horse in the field at 119, a full nine pounds clear of her nearest rival on the figures — in a race like this, that kind of advantage is significant. The editorial verdict selects her as the winner, pointing to her superior rating and solid recent form, which includes back-to-back wins at Epsom and Navan before a fourth-place finish at the Curragh last time. The market agrees, making her the favourite at 3.2, and on the numbers alone she is the one to beat.
- Top rated by 9lbs
- Market favourite (3.2)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The clear top-rated horse in the field at 119, a full nine pounds clear of her nearest rival on the figures — in a race like this, that kind of advantage is significant. The editorial verdict selects her as the winner, pointing to her superior rating and solid recent form, which includes back-to-back wins at Epsom and Navan before a fourth-place finish at the Curragh last time. The market agrees, making her the favourite at 3.2, and on the numbers alone she is the one to beat.
- Top rated by 9lbs
- Market favourite (3.2)
Has been in the top two in all four of her races and won her last two, including at Ascot just 30 days ago — she arrives in the best form of nearly any runner here. Rated 109, she is the second-highest-rated horse in the field and is dropping down in class from her usual level, which in theory gives her a head start over rivals stepping up. The main question is whether a horse who has only raced four times can handle the step up to a race of this size and quality.
- Drops 3 classes from usual level
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
Has finished in the top three in every single one of her four races, including a near-miss second at Ascot last time out — beaten just a fifth of a length — which shows she can compete at a high level. Rated 108, she sits respectably in this field and arrives with three consecutive top-three finishes behind her, making her one of the more consistent horses lining up today. The lack of a win at this level is the one gap in her record, but the consistency is hard to ignore.
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
Three races, three wins — an unbeaten record, but the same caveat applies as for Rebel Moon: we have almost no data to work with, and she has never once raced on dry ground. Rated 103, she is towards the lower end of this field, and while winning all your races sounds impressive, the quality of those races has not been tested at anything close to this level. A fascinating wildcard, but there are too many unknowns to see her as a genuine threat to the top-rated horses here.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (3 career races)
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
Has never raced on dry ground, which is a significant unknown given today's conditions — everything we know about her has come on softer surfaces. She was well beaten at Epsom last time (18 lengths back in sixth), and at a rating of 105 she is six pounds below the top-rated Inis Mor and a full 14 below favourite Thundering On. Ryan Moore is a top jockey but the ground question is real and hard to ignore.
- Never raced on dry ground
The best career win rate in the field by some margin — three wins from five races — and she arrives having won at Goodwood 56 days ago, so the form is live. Rated 110, she is the third-highest-rated runner today and drops down in class from her usual level, which means this race is easier on paper than what she has already shown she can handle. The wild card is a heavy defeat at Newmarket (12th, beaten almost eight lengths) sandwiched between wins, which is hard to explain and worth keeping in mind.
- Drops 3 classes from usual level
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 2)
Two races, two wins — a perfect record, but also the thinnest profile in this field; we simply do not know how good she is yet. She has never raced on dry ground, and stepping up to a Group 1 race after just two outings is a significant jump in both class and experience. Her odds drifting from 15.5 to 19.5 suggests the market has some reservations, and honestly those reservations are fair given how little we have to go on.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (2 career races)
Like several rivals today, Cameo has never raced on dry ground, which adds a layer of uncertainty. She was well beaten at Epsom (18 lengths back in fifth) and only third at Naas last time, and at a rating of 102 she is the joint-lowest rated horse in the field. The odds of 70/1 reflect a horse with questions to answer rather than one expected to compete at the top of this race.
- Never raced on dry ground
Never raced on dry ground, and the data flags a poor record on normal conditions — zero wins from three attempts — which is a real concern given today's dry surface. She has been beaten nine and a half lengths at Epsom and over five at Chester in her last two, and while she has a previous win at the Curragh, her odds drifting from 29/1 to 48/1 suggests punters are not overlooking these concerns.
- Never raced on dry ground
One of only a handful of course winners in this field, which counts for something at a track like the Curragh, but her recent form tells a different story — sixth last time out here, beaten over six lengths, and a string of mid-field finishes before that. Rated 104, she sits well below the leading fancies on the figures, and at 48/1 the market is not convinced a turnaround is coming.
- One of few course winners (1 wins here)
The editorial verdict calls her the second-closest danger to the favourite on the figures, yet she has not won in her last six races and arrives rated 101 — the lowest in the field alongside Cameo and Sparan Nua. She is a Curragh specialist with two wins here from five attempts, which is a genuine asset, but blinkers are on today suggesting the team feel she needs an extra nudge to find her best.
- Course specialist (2 wins from 5 here)
Top-rated in this field and one of only two horses here to have won more than once, Genchev looked a real prospect after back-to-back top-two finishes at Navan — but a 17th-place finish at Ascot last time out raises real questions. The odds drifting sharply from 1.2 out to 5.0 suggests the market isn't convinced he can bounce back, and that Ascot flop is hard to ignore.
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 6)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?Top-rated in this field and one of only two horses here to have won more than once, Genchev looked a real prospect after back-to-back top-two finishes at Navan — but a 17th-place finish at Ascot last time out raises real questions. The odds drifting sharply from 1.2 out to 5.0 suggests the market isn't convinced he can bounce back, and that Ascot flop is hard to ignore.
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 6)
The market favourite with the fewest races under her belt — just three — Vanir arrives on the back of a win at Fairyhouse and is clearly held in high regard, but there's a big unknown here: she has never raced on dry ground, and today's conditions are a first. She's the one to beat on current form, but that question mark over the fast surface makes her a risk at the price.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (3 career races)
- Market favourite (3.2)
Our selection for the race, and it's easy to see why — three straight top-three finishes including a win two races ago paint the picture of a horse moving in the right direction. The one genuine concern shared with most of this field is that she has never raced on dry ground, so today's conditions are uncharted territory.
- Never raced on dry ground
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
Perfectly consistent without ever winning — three races, three places — Noble Honour is the kind of horse that always shows up but hasn't yet found a way to get to the front. Rated 8lbs below Genchev at the top of the field and also unproven on dry ground, she looks more likely to fill a place than take the prize.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (3 career races)
No wins and no places from three races, with finishes of sixth and seventh bookending a gap in the record — this is the thinnest profile in the field. Wearing blinkers for the first time may sharpen things up, but facing better-credentialed rivals on ground he's never raced on makes this a tough ask.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (3 career races)
The lowest-rated horse in the field by some margin — 8lbs below the average — and yet to win from four races, Tanzanite Diamond is carrying the least weight but has plenty to find on official ratings. Racing on dry ground for the first time adds another unknown, and at 17.0 the market clearly isn't expecting a surprise.
- Lowest rated, 7lbs below average
- Carries lowest weight in field
- Never raced on dry ground
The market favourite and our selection, she has run twice at this exact course in her last three starts, finishing second and third — so she clearly handles the track. She's proven on dry ground and over today's five furlongs, which makes her better-placed than most of her rivals who face at least one unknown today. A horse who keeps running into the places, and the rating edge over the lower half of the field is real.
- Market favourite (4.5)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The market favourite and our selection, she has run twice at this exact course in her last three starts, finishing second and third — so she clearly handles the track. She's proven on dry ground and over today's five furlongs, which makes her better-placed than most of her rivals who face at least one unknown today. A horse who keeps running into the places, and the rating edge over the lower half of the field is real.
- Market favourite (4.5)
Top-rated in the field by 3lbs, this three-year-old finally broke its duck at Navan recently and followed up with a close second at Bellewstown 16 days ago — so the form is live. The big question mark is ground: Namiid has never raced on dry conditions like today's, which is a genuine unknown for a horse otherwise threatening to go one better. Cheekpieces go on, and the drift in the market from a very short opening price is worth noting.
- Top rated by 3lbs
- Never raced on dry ground
Back up after just six days following a well-beaten ninth at Dundalk, and there's a meaningful gap in her form — she hasn't raced on dry ground before today. The high draw in stall 17 adds another layer of difficulty at this course and distance, and the jockey-trainer partnership has yet to win together from three attempts.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Runs again after just 6 days
Three top-three finishes in a row — including wins at Navan and Bellewstown either side of a third at Naas — make this five-year-old one of the most in-form horses in the field right now. The problem is he's never raced on dry ground and has never won on it, so today's conditions could undo that impressive recent momentum. Draw in stall 13 is mid-range, which doesn't help.
- Never raced on dry ground
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
The standout marker here says placed in 2 of her last 3 races, but the raw data tells a harder story: 7th, 18th, and 10th in her three most recent runs, beaten by large margins each time. The jockey-trainer combination has yet to win together from eight attempts, and at 26/1 the market is under no illusions about her current form.
- Placed in 2 of last 3 races
The best career win rate in the field — winning 1 in every 4 races — looks impressive on paper, but the last three runs tell a different story: beaten over 9 lengths at Down Royal most recently and 10 lengths at Thirsk before that. This three-year-old clearly has ability, but needs to rediscover the form that earned those earlier wins to be competitive here.
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
The most experienced horse in the race alongside Tawaazon, and his recent form is genuinely solid — third at this course 22 days ago and fifth at Limerick just a week ago, beaten under 2 lengths on both occasions. The concern is that he has never won on dry ground: his best efforts have come on standard or softer conditions, and today's dry track is unfamiliar territory for him.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Runs again after just 7 days
Won at Naas 14 days ago and carries that confidence into today, making him one of the in-form horses in the race. However, like several others here, he has never raced on dry ground, so today's conditions are an open question. The jockey-trainer combination has yet to score together from eight attempts, which is a mild concern.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Best record at this trip (1 from 3)
One of only two horses in the field with multiple wins at this course — a genuine edge in an 18-runner field. But his last three runs are all finishes of sixth or worse, including a 10th here 20 days ago, so the course form is from an earlier chapter of his career. At eight years old, the bounce-back can't be taken for granted.
- One of few course winners (2 wins here)
The most experienced horse in the race by a wide margin — 62 career races compared to a field average of around 20 — but he's also rated 11lbs below the field average, the lowest mark here. His best form has come on soft or heavy ground, and he has never won on the dry conditions on offer today. At eight years old and rated this low, he faces a steep climb against younger, better-rated rivals.
- Lowest rated, 11lbs below average
- Most experienced (62 runs, field avg 20)
Won at Bellewstown 15 days ago and arrives here in the best recent form of her career — four places and a win from six races overall. The Curragh hasn't been kind to her in the past, with an 11th-place finish here 45 days ago, so she needs to show she can transfer that Bellewstown form to a different track. At 15/1 she's one of the more interesting each-way possibilities among the longer-priced runners.
- Placed in 2 of last 3 races
Won at Down Royal 29 days ago but has never won in 10 attempts at this course — a striking record that makes today's assignment particularly tough. His best form has come on wetter ground, and he has failed to win in 14 races on good conditions, which is the closest equivalent to today's dry surface. Experience and consistency won't be enough if the track and ground are against him.
- Among the more experienced (31 career races)
Drawn highest of all in stall 18, which is a disadvantage over this trip at the Curragh where the low draws hold a clear edge. He's also never raced on dry ground, and was beaten over 7 lengths on his latest run at Cork — the market has drifted sharply and his price of 29/1 reflects genuine doubts rather than just unfashionable odds.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Along with Harry's Hill, she's one of two course winners in this field, with two wins at the Curragh to her name — a real positive in a big field. But her last three runs are 7th, 6th, and 10th, beaten by significant margins each time, and she has never won on dry ground across 27 career races. The course form is there in principle; the recent form is not.
- One of few course winners (2 wins here)
Carries the lowest weight in the field, which gives a small theoretical advantage, but this three-year-old is winless from five races and has never raced on dry ground. A second at Fairyhouse 51 days ago is the only placed finish of his career, and the jockey-trainer partnership is brand new today. Not enough evidence to suggest he can trouble the principals here.
- Carries lowest weight in field
- Never raced on dry ground
Racing again after just six days following a sixth at Dundalk, and has never raced on dry ground — two flags to factor in before anything else. A 3rd at Down Royal 29 days ago shows there's ability in the locker, but the 11th here 45 days ago and the quick turnaround make this a tough ask. The draw in stall 9 is fine, but there's too much to prove on today's conditions.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Runs again after just 6 days
Six-year-old who hasn't won in nearly two years and was beaten nearly 19 lengths at Fairyhouse just 10 days ago. He does have a decent record on fast, dry ground — winning 1 from 4 on that surface — which is at least one reason to think today's conditions suit better than most. At 51/1, the market says the good ground form isn't enough to make him a serious contender.
- Best record on this ground (1 from 4)
Still winless from five career races and hasn't run for 175 days — the longest absence of any horse in the field by a distance. Returning from that kind of break in an 18-runner race on a track and trip she's never tackled before is a difficult ask. The data here is thin, and honest assessment says this is an unknown quantity stepping into deep water.
- Absent 175 days (longest in field)
The clear market favourite and top-rated horse in this field by some margin, Loriko has won back-to-back races at Uttoxeter and Huntingdon and arrives in the kind of form any rival would fear. Trained and ridden by the Skelton team, who have combined for over 500 wins together, this is a horse that finishes in the top three in almost every race it runs. The odds have drifted from what was a very short price, which is worth noting, but on raw form and class it stands out from the rest of this field.
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
- Market favourite (1.74)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The clear market favourite and top-rated horse in this field by some margin, Loriko has won back-to-back races at Uttoxeter and Huntingdon and arrives in the kind of form any rival would fear. Trained and ridden by the Skelton team, who have combined for over 500 wins together, this is a horse that finishes in the top three in almost every race it runs. The odds have drifted from what was a very short price, which is worth noting, but on raw form and class it stands out from the rest of this field.
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
- Market favourite (1.74)
The second-highest rated horse here, Master Haku arrives from Ireland with a question mark hanging over its last run — it was pulled up at Kilbeggan 48 days ago after a 23-length defeat the time before. Crucially, it has never raced on normal ground conditions like today, so how it handles the surface is a genuine unknown. There is a win in there from earlier this year, but recent form makes it hard to trust at this stage.
- Never raced on normal ground
The standout angle here is that Nobotheratall has the best record in the field on normal ground conditions, winning twice from five races on it — no other runner can match that specific experience. The six-year-old is also in decent recent form, winning at Kelso before running second at Hexham, and while it is rated well below the top two, it clearly handles these conditions well. The jockey-trainer partnership wins roughly 1 in 10 races together, which is modest, but the ground form is a genuine factor in its favour.
- Best record on this ground (2 from 5)
The least experienced runner in the field with just four races to its name, Show Your Hand ran two very close seconds before being pulled up last time out at Worcester 17 days ago. That pulled-up run so recently is a concern, and this is a new jockey-trainer combination with no history together. There is a glimpse of ability in those two near-misses, but at 18-to-1 against more established rivals, it needs to bounce back sharply.
- Relatively inexperienced (4 career races)
The most experienced horse in the field by a long way — 18 races compared to a field average of 8 — and still waiting for a first win, which tells its own story. At 101-to-1 and rated 36 points below the field average, this is comfortably the lowest-class runner here, and a 65-length defeat last time out makes it hard to argue otherwise. It is wearing cheekpieces and the jockey has never ridden it before, so there is very little here to suggest today will be any different.
- Most experienced (18 runs, field avg 8)
Eleven races and no wins is a difficult record to look past, and a ninth-place finish last time out at Pontefract — beaten nearly 30 lengths — does nothing to inspire confidence. The youngest horse in the field at four years old, it has no official rating listed here and its last run was on the flat, making it hard to assess exactly where it stands over hurdles. At 126-to-1, the market is telling a clear story.
- Winless from 11 career races
The market favourite, and it's easy to see why — this horse has never finished outside the top two in four career races, winning half of them outright. He drops down two class levels from where he's been racing, meaning this is a notably easier test than he's used to. With back-to-back wins heading into today and the best record on this ground of anyone in the field, he arrives with every reason for confidence.
- Drops 2 classes from usual level
- Best record on this ground (2 from 3)
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
- Market favourite (3.0)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The market favourite, and it's easy to see why — this horse has never finished outside the top two in four career races, winning half of them outright. He drops down two class levels from where he's been racing, meaning this is a notably easier test than he's used to. With back-to-back wins heading into today and the best record on this ground of anyone in the field, he arrives with every reason for confidence.
- Drops 2 classes from usual level
- Best record on this ground (2 from 3)
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
- Market favourite (3.0)
Carries the lowest weight and has the lowest rating in the field — 10lbs below the average — which is the biggest weight advantage of any horse here and can make a real difference over hurdles. He's raced just 8 days ago and finished third at York, so he's fit and ready. His record on normal ground is his best of any surface (3 wins from 15 races), which suits today, and the market has taken notice — he's shortened from 13/1 to around 8/1.
- Lowest rated, 10lbs below average
- Carries lowest weight in field
Wins more than 1 in every 3 races from just 11 outings — a genuinely impressive ratio that puts her among the best win rates in this field. She comes off an 86-day break after winning at Perth, and there's a big gap in her form between that win and her previous runs at Cheltenham over 600 days earlier. Whether she returns fresh and sharp or rusty from the layoff is the key question.
- Mid-range in the market (13.0)
Three wins in a row — most recently at Uttoxeter just 20 days ago — puts Newtown Rambler among the hottest horses in this field on current form. Like Louis Veron, he drops two class levels today, so the competition is measurably softer than what he's been beating. Wins roughly 2 in every 5 races across his career, and a young apprentice rider takes the mount, which could be a factor in a closely-matched field.
- Drops 2 classes from usual level
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
Back-to-back wins including a recent victory at Southwell give this horse solid recent form, and he drops two class levels today — the same advantage shared by several rivals. His record on normal ground is strong at 3 wins from 7 races (43%), which suits conditions perfectly today. At around 9/1 he's shorter than most of the field and represents a case the market is quietly making.
- Drops 2 classes from usual level
One of only a handful of course winners in this field, which counts for something at Market Rasen. Wins roughly 1 in every 4.5 races overall, and his record on normal ground is exceptional — 5 wins from just 9 races at that condition. The concern is a poor recent run at Haydock and a layoff before that; he's not in the sharpest form right now.
- One of few course winners (1 wins here)
Top-rated alongside Indemnity but stands out as the horse with the best overall win rate in the field — winning roughly 2 in every 5 races across his career is genuinely exceptional. Back-to-back wins at Kempton and Haydock coming into this race make him the most in-form of the highly-rated runners. The market has drifted on him, but the form figures say he's a serious player.
- Best record at this trip (3 from 6)
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
The youngest horse in the field and the only one yet to win a race — zero wins from four career outings so far. He's been off for 111 days, the longest absence of any runner here, and returns with no wins to his name and an uncertain fitness profile. That said, he was beaten just a short head at Ascot last time out, and at only four years old he's the least exposed horse in the race with room to improve.
- Absent 111 days (longest in field)
Like Indemnity, Howth is one of the few horses in this field to have already won at Market Rasen, which is a genuine advantage on an unusual track. His overall win rate is modest at roughly 1 in 7, and the data flags a troubling pattern — zero wins on normal ground from 8 attempts and zero wins on left-handed or right-handed galloping tracks, which covers most tracks including this one. At 41/1 the market is not convinced.
- One of few course winners (1 wins here)
This horse has finished second in two of his last three races — consistent, but the wins have dried up across 24 career outings, with just 4 victories at roughly 1 in every 6 races. There's no standout reason to prefer him over the market leaders, and his odds of 21/1 reflect that honest assessment. He keeps turning up and placing, but this looks a tough race for him to finally convert.
- Placed in 2 of last 3 races
Drops three class levels today — the biggest class drop of any horse in this field — which on paper is a big positive. Wins roughly 1 in every 5 races overall, but the data flags a concerning record on normal ground with zero wins from 4 attempts at that condition, and today's normal ground is exactly what he's been unable to handle. His best form has come on wetter surfaces.
- Drops 3 classes from usual level
Our selection according to the editorial verdict, but the data makes this a genuinely puzzling call — Charlus has won just once from 12 races and his last three runs include a pulled-up at Aintree and a 22nd place finish at Cheltenham. At 46/1 he's drifted dramatically from his opening price of 19/1, suggesting the market has seen nothing to change minds. The fitness edge and progressive profile cited by the editorial are things to take on trust rather than obvious from the numbers.
- Outsider at 46.0
Finished second here at Market Rasen just 36 days ago, beaten by only half a length — that recent near-miss at this exact track is the most relevant piece of form in his record. With 3 wins from 38 career races he's not a natural winner, but he clearly knows his way around here. The jockey-trainer partnership has yet to win together in 8 attempts, which is a nagging concern.
- Drops 2 classes from usual level
The market favourite at 4.33 and it's not hard to see why — three consecutive top-three finishes including a win, and the powerful Harry Skelton and Dan Skelton partnership behind him who together win roughly 1 in 5 races at an extraordinary volume. He drops two classes from his usual level today, meaning this is an easier race on paper than he's been tackling, which is a significant factor the market has clearly priced in. The standout question is whether he can transfer that form to a track and trip he hasn't yet proven himself at.
- Drops 2 classes from usual level
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
- Market favourite (4.33)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The market favourite at 4.33 and it's not hard to see why — three consecutive top-three finishes including a win, and the powerful Harry Skelton and Dan Skelton partnership behind him who together win roughly 1 in 5 races at an extraordinary volume. He drops two classes from his usual level today, meaning this is an easier race on paper than he's been tackling, which is a significant factor the market has clearly priced in. The standout question is whether he can transfer that form to a track and trip he hasn't yet proven himself at.
- Drops 2 classes from usual level
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
- Market favourite (4.33)
He ran second at Market Rasen just 36 days ago, so he knows this track and clearly goes well here — that's an encouraging sign in a field where course experience is rare. Five wins from 18 races on good ground with a 42% win rate on that surface is a strong number, and normal conditions today play right into his hands. Dropping two classes from his usual level gives him more room to breathe, and at 11-1 he looks a fair each-way option.
- Drops 2 classes from usual level
The market's second choice and the field's best career win rate — winning roughly 1 in 3 races over a long career is a serious number. The concern is straightforward: he hasn't run in 99 days, the longest absence of any horse in this field, and his last outing ended when he fell at Aintree. Normal ground like today suits him better than most — he's won 8 from 16 races on this surface — but fitness after that lay-off is the real question.
- Best record on this ground (8 from 16)
- Absent 99 days (longest in field)
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
Three consecutive top-three finishes, including a win at Cartmel just 20 days ago, makes this one of the most in-form horses in the race right now. He wins roughly 1 in 3 on normal ground — comfortably the best ground record in the field for this surface — which is a significant plus today. The one worry is his record on galloping tracks, where he has failed to win in five attempts on both left and right-handed courses of that type.
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
Eight wins from 39 races is a solid career record, but this six-year-old is making his first run over fences in a chase — the data provided is largely flat-race based, including course wins at Southwell on standard all-weather ground, which is a very different test to what he faces here. A new jockey partnership today adds further uncertainty. The market has shortened him slightly but he remains a risky proposition stepping into this format.
- Drops 2 classes from usual level
A win rate of roughly 1 in 4 across his career is a decent number for a seven-year-old, but his last run was an eighth-place finish at Uttoxeter just 20 days ago — a sharp step down from the close second he managed there the time before. He has no wins on normal ground from four attempts, which is a real concern for today. The market has drifted him out from 7-1 to 9-1 and that feels about right.
- Placed in 2 of last 3 races
The only horse in this field to have won around Market Rasen's track, scoring here just 29 days ago — that course experience is a genuine edge over these rivals. Rated 15lbs above the field average, he arrives fitter and fresher than most, which is why he's the selection despite drifting slightly in the market. At 10 years old he's seen it all before, and on normal ground he's a different horse — wins roughly 1 in 4 on this surface.
- Only course winner (1 from 3 here)
His odds have more than doubled since they opened — drifting from 11.5 out to 22 — which tells its own story about how the market reads his chances. Two third-place finishes at Cartmel give him recent consistency, but he has never won on normal ground in three attempts, and this is a stiffer test than Cartmel. Hard to make a strong case at a drifting price.
- Placed in 2 of last 3 races
The lowest-rated horse in the field and carrying the lightest weight — 9lbs below the field average — which gives him a physical advantage if the weight difference translates on the day. Three consecutive top-three finishes shows he's in a good moment right now, and his market has shortened considerably from 26-1 to 19-1. The risk is a poor record on left-handed galloping tracks like Market Rasen — no wins from five attempts — which is difficult to ignore.
- Lowest rated, 9lbs below average
- Carries lowest weight in field
- Drops 2 classes from usual level
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
One of the most experienced horses in the field with 32 races under his belt, but the record is modest — winning roughly 1 in 8 races over his last stretch of form. He has struggled badly on left-handed sharp tracks and right-handed tight tracks, and while Market Rasen is a different shape, there's nothing in the recent form to suggest a revival is coming. A distant sixth last time out in Ireland doesn't inspire confidence.
- Among the more experienced (32 career races)
Nine years old, 38 races in, and still knocking on the door — a fifth, third and second in his last three runs shows he's competitive without quite getting the job done. He drops two classes from his usual level which helps on paper, but there's nothing in the data to specifically recommend him for Market Rasen's course or conditions today. A drifting price of 28-1 suggests the market agrees.
- Drops 2 classes from usual level
The market has pushed him out to 26-1 despite a rating that sits 8lbs above the field average, and it's hard to argue with that pessimism given his last two runs — beaten nearly 50 lengths at Kilbeggan and nearly 24 at Punchestown. He has no wins on normal ground and struggles on left-handed galloping tracks like this one, which doesn't point to a turnaround today.
- Best record at this trip (1 from 3)
- Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
At 70-1 he's the longest shot in the field, and the data doesn't offer much reason to look past that price — he has won just once on a left-handed galloping track like Market Rasen from 11 attempts, and has no wins on normal ground at all. The 11-year-old ran third at Uttoxeter 55 days ago which shows some life, but that's a big step up in quality from this Premier Handicap field. Honest horse, wrong day.
- Outsider at 70.0
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The market has made him favourite at 3.15, yet this horse has never won in 18 career races — the joint-worst win record in the field — with just one placed finish to show for all those efforts. He also carries a rating 10 points below the field average, meaning the handicapper currently thinks less of him than most rivals here. The public support is a genuine puzzle based on what the data shows.
- Market favourite (3.15)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The market has made him favourite at 3.15, yet this horse has never won in 18 career races — the joint-worst win record in the field — with just one placed finish to show for all those efforts. He also carries a rating 10 points below the field average, meaning the handicapper currently thinks less of him than most rivals here. The public support is a genuine puzzle based on what the data shows.
- Market favourite (3.15)
The most experienced runner in the field with 36 career races, and he genuinely likes normal ground — winning around 1 in 6 times on it, which is a solid record. However, his last two runs produced a ninth and a fourth, and he's never won on a right-handed galloping track like Market Rasen from six attempts. That's a significant red flag for today.
- One of the more successful in the field (3 career wins)
Second in the market at 6.5 despite having never won or even placed across five career races — that's a puzzling price for a horse that has finished fourth at best. The jockey has never ridden this horse before, which adds another unknown. Until Sledgehammer shows it can finish in the first three, the market support is hard to justify on the evidence available.
- 2nd in the market (6.5)
Comes into this race in the best recent form of any runner — a win at Fakenham five weeks ago followed by a third just 11 days back suggests this horse is firmly in its groove. Wearing cheekpieces and suited by distances of 2 miles and beyond, this trip plays to his strengths. The one flag is a blank record on left-handed sharp tracks, and Market Rasen fits that profile.
- 2nd in the market (6.5)
The course specialist in this field: three wins from 11 races at Market Rasen, which is the best course record of any runner here, winning roughly 1 in every 4 times he turns up at this track. He was third here just 36 days ago, so he knows the place well and arrives in fair recent form. Wearing a visor and with a jockey who knows him well, he's a serious each-way consideration.
- Has won over this course and distance
- Best record at this trip (2 from 8)
The most compelling case on paper: the only horse in the field to have won over this exact course and distance, and he wins roughly 1 in 4 races on normal ground — the best ground record in the field. He also carries the best career win rate here at around 1 in 7. The worry is his last two runs at Hexham were both heavy defeats, so he needs to show he's bounced back from those.
- Has won over this course and distance
- Best record on this ground (4 from 17)
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 7)
The editorial pick despite drifting dramatically in the market — currently 12/1 despite carrying the joint-highest rating in the field. He's been placed in more than half his career races and won twice from 17 outings, and a run just 19 days ago means he's race-fit. The big concern is that fourth at Stratford last time out was well beaten, so he'll need to step up sharply.
- Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Carries the lowest weight and the lowest rating in the field — 19 points below the average — and races again just six days after finishing seventh at Stratford. One win from 24 career races, a win rate of roughly 1 in 24, makes this the hardest horse to back with any confidence. The rapid turnaround and the weight of evidence both point in the same direction: this looks a tough assignment.
- Lowest rated, 18lbs below average
- Carries lowest weight in field
- Runs again after just 6 days
The market favourite and one of the two highest-rated horses in the race, Special John wins roughly 1 in every 4 outings — the best win rate in this field. Was beaten a whisker last time out at Fontwell and won the race before that, so the form is pointing the right way. The big question is whether the market knows something: the odds have drifted sharply from what would have been a very short price.
- Best record on this ground (1 from 4)
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
- Market favourite (3.8)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The market favourite and one of the two highest-rated horses in the race, Special John wins roughly 1 in every 4 outings — the best win rate in this field. Was beaten a whisker last time out at Fontwell and won the race before that, so the form is pointing the right way. The big question is whether the market knows something: the odds have drifted sharply from what would have been a very short price.
- Best record on this ground (1 from 4)
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
- Market favourite (3.8)
The youngest in the field at six and arriving on the back of three straight top-three finishes, including back-to-back wins — that's the hottest recent form in this race. He's never won here before, but his consistency on normal ground is solid and he carries less weight than the top two in the ratings. A young, improving horse with momentum is always worth respecting.
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
Our selection and the second-highest rated horse here, Yes Day leads our own ratings by seven pounds over the rest of this field — a significant edge on paper. The worry is a record of zero wins from nine races on left-handed tracks that tend to spread the field out, and this is exactly that kind of course. Wearing blinkers to sharpen focus, but the recent form includes a pulled-up run and a distant third, so it needs to bounce back.
- 2nd highest rated (OR 111)
Has the best record of any horse here over this trip of three miles, and that distance experience matters in a stamina test like this. The concern is a 70-day absence and a distant fourth last time out, so he arrives here short of match practice and not in the sharpest form. Worth keeping an eye on if conditions play to his strengths, but there are question marks.
- Best record at this trip (1 from 3)
The lowest-rated horse in the race, sitting 15 pounds below the field average, and still looking for a first win from three career outings. Carries the lightest weight in the field, which helps, but the jockey-trainer partnership has yet to win together from 13 attempts, which adds another layer of doubt. Finishing in the top three twice does show the horse is trying, but this looks a tough step up.
- Lowest rated, 15lbs below average
- Carries lowest weight in field
- Lightly raced (3 career races)
The only horse in this field to have won at Market Rasen, and he's done it four times here — no one else can claim that kind of course knowledge. At 11 years old he's the most experienced runner by some distance, with 42 races under his belt, and he's run over this course and distance before. His recent form has been modest, but every time he lines up here you have to take him seriously.
- Only course winner (4 from 21 here)
- Has won over this course and distance
The most lightly raced horse in the field with just one career run to their name — a 12th-place finish here at Market Rasen just 13 days ago. That's a tough introduction, and turning it around this quickly against more experienced rivals makes this a very difficult ask. The data simply isn't there to build a case, and honesty demands saying so.
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
Second in the market at 7/1, and his recent form justifies the interest — second at Market Rasen just 13 days ago, then second again at Worcester eight days ago. He clearly likes this course and is running consistently well, though he carries one of the lower official ratings in the field and has managed just one win from 11 career races. Whether consistent placing form converts into a win here is the question.
- 2nd in the market (7.0)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?Second in the market at 7/1, and his recent form justifies the interest — second at Market Rasen just 13 days ago, then second again at Worcester eight days ago. He clearly likes this course and is running consistently well, though he carries one of the lower official ratings in the field and has managed just one win from 11 career races. Whether consistent placing form converts into a win here is the question.
- 2nd in the market (7.0)
One of only a handful of horses in this field who has actually won at Market Rasen before, which is worth more than it sounds on an idiosyncratic track. He arrives off the back of a win at Newmarket 22 days ago and shares the second-highest official rating alongside two rivals. The concern is his record on normal ground — just one win from 17 races on similar conditions.
- One of few course winners (1 wins here)
The market's favourite, and it is not hard to see why — she won at this exact course just 29 days ago and has back-to-back wins coming into this race. She is the only horse in the field who can claim that kind of red-hot recent form at this venue, which counts for plenty. Her record on normal ground reads two wins from eight races, so the conditions suit.
- Market favourite (5.0)
Joint-rated as one of the main dangers alongside Ballygeary by the editorial team, despite a modest win record of one from 13 races. His last run was a well-beaten sixth at Uttoxeter, which is hard to excuse, but a third at Worcester earlier in the season showed he can place at this level. His record on left-handed galloping tracks — zero wins from five races — is a genuine concern at Market Rasen.
- Among the fancied runners (8.5)
Rated nine pounds below the field average — the lowest-rated horse in the race — which means he is climbing the class ladder after winning at Worcester 17 days ago. Those two previous runs before his win were very poor, beaten 26 and 31 lengths, so the form is hard to read with confidence. His record on conditions similar to today — zero wins from five races on softer or soft-adjacent ground — adds another layer of doubt.
- Lowest rated, 9lbs below average
The standout course specialist in the field — four wins from 14 races at Market Rasen is a record none of his rivals can match here. He has been running consistently into third place at Uttoxeter recently, suggesting he is fit and competitive, and the editorial team flag him as capable of running well. The one worry is that his recent form has come on left-handed tracks where his overall record away from Market Rasen is poor.
- One of few course winners (4 wins here)
The editorial team rate him as one of the main dangers, and he has a strong claim — he has won at this course and distance before, which is a specific box few rivals can tick. A third-place finish 20 days ago at Uttoxeter shows he is in reasonable nick, though his wider record at left-handed tracks (one win from 13 races) is a concern. The jockey-trainer combination has managed just one win from 42 races together, which is not encouraging.
- Has won over this course and distance
- Best record at this trip (1 from 3)
The best career win rate in the field — roughly one win in every four races — and the only four-year-old taking on older horses here, which means he carries the lightest weight in the race. His form over long distances is particularly strong, with a 40% win rate at two miles or more, which suits perfectly today. Three placed finishes from his last three completed runs suggest he is running consistently well.
- Carries lowest weight in field
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
Has won two races in a row, including one at this course 71 days ago — so he arrives with strong recent form and course form combined, which is a compelling combination. His record on normal ground is the best in the field: three wins from seven races, winning roughly 1 in every 2 races on these conditions. At 19/1 in the market, he looks like he could be underestimated.
- Best record on this ground (3 from 7)
Zero wins from seven career races makes Saxon Cross one of the two least experienced and yet-to-win horses in the field, alongside Arnie Moon. His last run was a distant sixth at Uttoxeter, beaten nearly 34 lengths, which is hard to put a positive spin on. At 34/1, the market has assessed him accurately as a long shot.
- Relatively inexperienced (7 career races)
Our top pick for this race, though not the market's — Glory And Honour sits at 26/1 despite topping our own ratings by six pounds over the field average, which is a notable gap in a tightly-graded field. At 10 years old with 62 races under his belt, he is comfortably the most experienced horse here, and he won at Hexham just six weeks ago. The big question is whether the market knows something our figures don't.
- Most experienced (62 runs, field avg 21)
- Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
The least experienced in the field alongside Saxon Cross, with just seven races to his name and no wins yet — which makes his second-highest joint rating of 110 a bit of a puzzle. He fell at Exeter on his last completed run before finishing fourth at Worcester, so reliability has been an issue. There is not enough evidence yet to confidently back him in a 13-runner field like this.
- 2nd highest rated (OR 110)
The clear top-rated horse in the race — 7 lbs clear of the next-best on our figures — and the market favourite at 2.5 having shortened from 2.75. Has won three Class 1 races in the last year and arrives here just 15 days after finishing second at Sandown, making it the freshest and most battle-hardened runner in the field; the one concern is a record of zero wins from six races on fast, dry ground, which today's conditions could deliver.
- Most experienced (21 runs, field avg 8)
- Market favourite (2.5)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The clear top-rated horse in the race — 7 lbs clear of the next-best on our figures — and the market favourite at 2.5 having shortened from 2.75. Has won three Class 1 races in the last year and arrives here just 15 days after finishing second at Sandown, making it the freshest and most battle-hardened runner in the field; the one concern is a record of zero wins from six races on fast, dry ground, which today's conditions could deliver.
- Most experienced (21 runs, field avg 8)
- Market favourite (2.5)
The market has warmed to Al Zanati, shortening from 6s to 4s, and it carries a weight advantage of 9 lbs over the older horses here which is worth noting. However, it arrives off a 65-day break following a well-beaten sixth at York, and as a three-year-old taking on a proven Class 1 winner in Persica, it faces a stiff ask despite the jockey-trainer team behind it winning roughly 1 in 3 races together.
- Drops 2 classes from usual level
The only runner in the field wearing cheekpieces — headgear added to sharpen focus — and the odds have drifted out from 4.5 to 5.5, suggesting the market isn't convinced. A 7th at Sandown sandwiched between otherwise respectable efforts makes the form hard to read, and its best results have come over shorter distances than today's 1m 2f.
- Mid-range in the market (5.5)
The best win rate in this field at 1 in 3, but that record is flattered by a Dubai campaign that doesn't carry over to today — its last run at Ascot was a distant 10th, beaten over six lengths, and the odds have drifted significantly from 7s out to 10s. Of the six horses here, this one arrives in the shakiest form despite the strong overall career numbers.
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
Brutally honest assessment: three races, zero wins, zero places, and today will be the first time it has ever raced on dry ground. The lowest-rated horse in the field by some distance, sitting 12 points below top-rated Persica, and the data simply doesn't give you much to work with.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (3 career races)
The public's favourite at 4.0, yet the analysts rate this horse below the top two on their figures — an interesting mismatch worth noting. Wins only roughly 1 in every 9 races, which is modest for a market leader, and a sixth at Newcastle last time out was underwhelming. The ground suits, but this horse will need to find more than it has shown recently to justify favouritism.
- Market favourite (4.0)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The public's favourite at 4.0, yet the analysts rate this horse below the top two on their figures — an interesting mismatch worth noting. Wins only roughly 1 in every 9 races, which is modest for a market leader, and a sixth at Newcastle last time out was underwhelming. The ground suits, but this horse will need to find more than it has shown recently to justify favouritism.
- Market favourite (4.0)
The form horse of the field — back-to-back wins at Newbury and Kempton in the last 25 days, and six consecutive top-three finishes overall. Crucially, that Newbury win came at this very course, giving it the best record on today's ground of any runner here. The market has drifted it out from 5.0 to 6.6, which is puzzling given a horse arriving in the form of its life.
- Best record on this ground (2 from 7)
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
The best win rate in the field by some distance — winning roughly 1 in every 3 races is rare at this level. The obvious concern is that today's dry ground has produced zero wins from five attempts, which is a real red flag at this price. William Buick takes the ride, but he and this trainer have yet to win together in four attempts.
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
Has been shortening in the market and brings a strong record at today's trip, winning 38% of races over this distance range — among the best in this field. The dry ground also suits, with 2 wins from 5 races on similar conditions. A poor ninth at Newcastle last time gives slight pause, but the step back up in distance looks a positive move.
- One of the more successful in the field (4 career wins)
Second in the market and arriving here on the back of a win at Chester 71 days ago, which keeps the form fresh enough. Rob Hornby, who rides today, wins roughly 2 in every 5 races on this horse — a notably strong partnership. The one concern is a poor record on slower ground, though today's dry conditions remove that worry entirely.
- 2nd in the market (6.2)
The only confirmed course-and-distance winner in this field, with two wins from six races here at Newbury including a Class 2 success at this track just weeks ago — that local knowledge is a genuine weapon. Carries the lightest weight of any runner today, which gives a small physical advantage. The market has pushed it out to 8.0 despite that recent Newbury second, suggesting doubts, and its rating sits 7lbs below the field average — but course specialists at this level are always dangerous.
- Lowest rated, 7lbs below average
- Carries lowest weight in field
- Course specialist (2 wins from 6 here)
- Has won over this course and distance
The pick of the analysts despite drifting in the market from 19s to 23s — punters clearly aren't convinced. Carries the highest rating in the field, which reflects genuine ability, but a 15th-place finish at Ascot last time out is hard to ignore, and this horse wins only roughly 1 in every 10 races. The good ground today plays to its strengths, but it needs to bounce back sharply to justify the selection.
- Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Soldier's Tree is the market favourite and the editorial selection, and its consistency is the reason — it has finished in the top three in every single one of its five career races. It has been rated at 118, the highest official rating of any runner in this field once adjusted, and arrives on the back of two consecutive third-place finishes at Ascot and Salisbury, showing it is in good shape. With only one career win to its name, the question is whether it can finally convert that reliability into victory.
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
- Market favourite (3.6)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?Soldier's Tree is the market favourite and the editorial selection, and its consistency is the reason — it has finished in the top three in every single one of its five career races. It has been rated at 118, the highest official rating of any runner in this field once adjusted, and arrives on the back of two consecutive third-place finishes at Ascot and Salisbury, showing it is in good shape. With only one career win to its name, the question is whether it can finally convert that reliability into victory.
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
- Market favourite (3.6)
Rated 103, Binhareer is one of the lower-rated horses in this field and faces a tough ask against rivals ranked well above it. A narrow second-place finish at York 66 days ago showed promise, but a distant sixth at Ascot last time out suggests it struggles when the quality rises sharply. With Soldier's Tree and Symbol Of Honour rated 5 points higher, this one needs a career-best to compete.
- One of the more successful in the field (3 career wins)
Symbol Of Honour has the best win rate in the field — winning 1 in every 3 races — and boasts a remarkable record at this exact distance, winning 5 from 9 races over six furlongs. Crucially, it has won at Newbury before and has a 60% win rate on fast, dry ground, which matches today's conditions perfectly. The one concern is a poor record on right-handed tracks like Newbury, where it has yet to win in five attempts.
- Has won over this course and distance
- Best record on this ground (3 from 5)
- Best record at this trip (5 from 9)
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
Song Of The Clyde is the youngest horse in the field at just three years old, but it is also one of two course winners here, having scored at Newbury just 63 days ago. It wins on dry ground at an impressive rate — two wins from four attempts — and its overall win rate of 33% rivals Symbol Of Honour as the best in the field. A 7th at Ascot last time out breaks its otherwise consistent record, but previous Newbury form gives it a genuine foothold in this race.
- One of few course winners (1 wins here)
On paper, Jasour's rating of 116 makes it one of only two horses capable of threatening the favourite — but recent form tells a very different story. A 17th-place finish at Ascot last time out, beaten by over 32 lengths, is a serious red flag, and it has gone 0 wins from 7 races on normal dry ground. Its odds have drifted sharply from 9.5 to 16.5, suggesting the market has little faith in a turnaround.
- One of the more successful in the field (3 career wins)
Noble Champion carries the highest rating in the field at 112, four pounds clear of its nearest rivals, but has not won in over a year and pulled up in its last completed race at this level. A ninth-place finish at Newcastle just 21 days ago does nothing to inspire confidence, and it has never won on normal dry ground in four attempts. The market has it as a 19-1 outsider despite the lofty rating — a telling gap between potential and current form.
- Top rated by 4lbs
- Absent 354 days (longest in field)
- Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Mitbaahy is one of only two horses in this field with a previous win at Newbury, which counts for something on a track where course experience matters. However, it has never won on fast, dry ground in six attempts, which is a significant concern given today's conditions. At seven years old and with a 12th-place finish at Doncaster on its recent record, it arrives needing things to fall perfectly.
- One of few course winners (1 wins here)
Just one race on record — a second place finish at Newmarket, beaten by just a nose — which means there is almost no data to work with beyond that single outing. What we do know is that a near-miss on debut at Newmarket is a genuinely promising start, and odds of 7.4 suggest the market sees more potential here than the bare record shows. Coming into a field of 26 with one race of experience is a big ask, though.
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?Just one race on record — a second place finish at Newmarket, beaten by just a nose — which means there is almost no data to work with beyond that single outing. What we do know is that a near-miss on debut at Newmarket is a genuinely promising start, and odds of 7.4 suggest the market sees more potential here than the bare record shows. Coming into a field of 26 with one race of experience is a big ask, though.
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
Our selection, and the top-rated horse in this 26-runner field at 94 — three pounds clear of the next best, which is a meaningful edge when things are tight. Two wins from four races and three top-three finishes in her last three outings paint a picture of a horse who keeps delivering when it matters, with a win at Sandown just 15 days ago the most recent example. The draw in stall 20 is on the unfavourable side based on Newbury's bias towards lower numbers, so she'll need to overcome that.
- Top rated by 3lbs
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
- Market favourite (5.9)
One of the highest-rated runners in the field at 91, sitting just three pounds off top-rated Bint Archange — but Vollering has only raced twice, so there is still plenty we don't know. The concern is a last run that saw this horse finish 5th at Naas, beaten 10 lengths. Drawn in stall 26, the widest in the field, which is a significant disadvantage at Newbury over 5f based on historical data here.
- Lightly raced (2 career races)
Two races, two top-two finishes — second on debut at Goodwood, then winner there next time out. The form is progressive and the record is clean, but the important caveat is that both runs came on softer ground, and today's dry Newbury surface is something this horse has never encountered. The draw in stall 2 is one of the most favourable in the field based on Newbury's historical bias towards low numbers.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (2 career races)
The form line reads as two races — a second at Lingfield and a win at Yarmouth — but officially only the Yarmouth run counts as a career race on the record, making this one of the most lightly experienced horses in the field. A recent win is always a positive sign, and odds shortening from 19.5s to 17s suggests a little market support. There's just very little to go on beyond that one outing.
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
Only two races under the belt, but both have produced something — a 4th on debut followed by a win at Leicester, giving this horse one of the tidiest records in the field. Rated 85 and one of the shorter-priced runners at 8.6, the market clearly respects the potential here. The big unknown is that we're essentially working from a very small sample of just two races.
- Lightly raced (2 career races)
Just two races in, but the most recent one — a second at Newbury only nine days ago — is directly relevant to today's course and distance. That gives Minster Boy a meaningful course advantage over many rivals in this field who have never raced here. Odds have shortened from 21s to 15.5s, suggesting some market interest off the back of that run.
- Lightly raced (2 career races)
The standout angle here is that Kodi Bear Light is identified as the only horse in this field with a win specifically over this 5-furlong trip — that's a concrete distinction in a race where experience at the distance can matter. Three races in and the record shows a win and two places, though the last run was a 6th at Beverley. Drawn wide in stall 23, which based on Newbury's historical data is a disadvantage worth flagging.
- Only winner at this distance
- Best record at this trip (1 from 3)
- Lightly raced (3 career races)
One race, one win — a perfect debut record — but that single run came on softer ground at Chepstow, and today's dry Newbury surface is something this horse has never experienced. Winning first time out is always eye-catching, but stepping into a 26-runner field like this on just one outing is a significant jump in difficulty. Odds drifting from 11s to 18.5s suggests the market has some reservations.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
Three races in and still searching for a first win, with finishes of 7th, 7th and 6th telling a consistent story of mid-pack struggles. Rated 67, which puts this horse 27 points below top-rated Bint Archange — that is a very big gap to bridge in a race this competitive. Odds that have drifted from 17s out to 34s suggest punters aren't rushing in.
- Lightly raced (3 career races)
Rated 86, which puts this horse among the better-credentialed runners, but the key flag is that it has never raced on dry ground — all three career runs have come on softer surfaces. Today's dry conditions at Newbury are a genuine unknown, and after finishing 5th last time out at Chester, there are questions to answer. The trainer-jockey combination of K.R. Burke and Clifford Lee wins roughly 1 in 5 races together, which is a solid partnership.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (3 career races)
Four races, four placed finishes, zero wins — this horse keeps hitting the frame but can't get to the front. Crucially, like several rivals, Ballisty has never raced on dry ground, so today's fast Newbury surface is uncharted territory. Wearing blinkers, which are often fitted to sharpen a horse's focus, but at 51s in a 26-runner field, the risk is clear.
- Never raced on dry ground
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
Rated 88, one of the higher-rated horses in the field and identified as a chief danger in our verdict — but the last run was an 8th at Sandown, beaten 10 lengths, which is a sharp contrast to the win at Bath before it. Like several rivals, Bill The Bull has never raced on dry ground, and today's conditions are an unknown. Drawn in stall 3, which is among the most favoured positions on this track.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 5)
Won on debut at Thirsk but has gone 25th and 9th in the two races since, including a heavy defeat at Royal Ascot last month — a sharp drop in form that the market has noticed, with odds drifting to 91s from 38s. Three races in, and the trajectory is heading in the wrong direction. Hard to get excited at this price.
- Lightly raced (3 career races)
Four races, no wins, but two second-place finishes suggest this horse is competitive without quite getting over the line. Odds drifting heavily to 151s from 50s is a big concern though — the market is clearly not expecting a reversal of recent form. At a rating of 79, there are more compelling options in this field.
- Outsider at 151.0
Three races, no wins, no placed finishes, and a rating of 61 that makes this one of the lowest-rated runners in the field — 33 points below top-rated Bint Archange. Finishing 5th, 4th and 7th across those three outings, there's no obvious trajectory heading into a field of 26. Hard to make a case at 130s.
- Lightly raced (3 career races)
Three races, three placed finishes — this horse has never finished outside the top three, which is an admirable record of consistency. The problem is that Leucothea has never raced on dry ground, having placed on softer surfaces each time, so today's conditions are a fresh test. At 95s in the market, punters aren't backing it to clear that hurdle.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (3 career races)
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
Three consecutive placed finishes — 2nd, 3rd and 2nd in recent outings — show a horse that is reliably competitive without quite winning, and all of those runs have come on softer or standard ground. Today's dry conditions at Newbury are something Past Passion hasn't encountered yet, which introduces a real question mark. At 81s, the market isn't convinced this form will translate.
- Never raced on dry ground
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
Named as one of the chief dangers in our verdict, rated 92 on our figures — but officially rated 67, which is one of the bigger discrepancies in the field and suggests our figures see more potential than the official mark does. Four races in and this horse has finished in the top three every single time, including a win at Musselburgh. The critical caveat is that all four runs have come on softer ground, and today's dry surface is completely new territory — drawn in the most favourable stall of all at number 1, which partly offsets that concern.
- Never raced on dry ground
Three consecutive top-three finishes, including a win at Nottingham 16 days ago, make Holi Scarlett one of the horses in the best recent form in this field. The record of one win and three places from five races shows genuine consistency, and the form on fast, dry ground is specifically noted as strong — relevant given today's dry Newbury conditions. At 126s, the market doesn't fancy the step up in class, but the recent momentum is hard to ignore.
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
Won 1 from 4 races, which sounds promising, but the last two outings have been 8th and 7th — and the market has gone cold, drifting all the way out to 120s from an opening price of 60s. In a 26-runner field this deep, you need to be improving, and recent form points the other way.
- One of the more successful in the field (1 career wins)
Runs here just five days after finishing 9th at Windsor, and that quick turnaround follows two other 9th-place finishes in recent weeks. No official rating is listed, which limits the comparison, and odds drifting to 201s from 126s tells you where market confidence sits. One of the most difficult horses in this field to find a reason to back.
- Lightly raced (3 career races)
- Runs again after just 5 days
Two races in — a 9th at Chepstow and a 3rd at Brighton — and the record is thin without being encouraging. At 151s in the market with no official rating listed, this horse is among the outsiders here, and there's not enough in the form to argue against that assessment. One of 26 runners still looking for a first win.
- Lightly raced (2 career races)
Three races, three finishes outside the places — 7th, 4th and 8th — and a rating of 61 that puts this horse among the lowest-rated in the field. Odds drifting sharply from 101s to 170s is a clear signal from the market. There is very little in the data to suggest this field is the right place to find a first breakthrough.
- Lightly raced (3 career races)
Two races, two fourth-place finishes — no wins, no places — and a rating of 65 that sits well below most rivals in this field. Odds collapsing outward from 65s to 201s is one of the biggest drifts in the race, and it's hard to find a positive angle in the data. Drawn in stall 25, one of the widest and most unfavoured positions at Newbury, adds another layer of difficulty.
- Lightly raced (2 career races)
Runs here just four days after a race at Ffos Las, which is an unusually quick turnaround for a young horse still finding its feet. Rated just 44 — the lowest official rating in this entire field, and a full 50 points below top-rated Bint Archange — the figures don't paint an encouraging picture. At 251s, the market agrees.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Runs again after just 4 days
Currently the market favourite and stepping down two class levels from where she usually competes — a significant drop that suggests her trainer expects her to be competitive here. She finished just half a length behind Manaar at this same course 37 days ago, so a direct rematch between these two looks like the crux of the race. Like the rest of the field, she has never raced on dry ground, which adds a layer of uncertainty for everyone.
- Drops 2 classes from usual level
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (2 career races)
- Market favourite (2.1)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?Currently the market favourite and stepping down two class levels from where she usually competes — a significant drop that suggests her trainer expects her to be competitive here. She finished just half a length behind Manaar at this same course 37 days ago, so a direct rematch between these two looks like the crux of the race. Like the rest of the field, she has never raced on dry ground, which adds a layer of uncertainty for everyone.
- Drops 2 classes from usual level
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (2 career races)
- Market favourite (2.1)
The only horse in this field who has already won here at Newbury, and she did it with a perfect record — one race, one win. Trained by William Haggas alongside jockey Tom Marquand, who together win roughly 1 in 5 races they contest, this is clearly a horse held in high regard. The one genuine unknown is dry ground: she has never raced on it, and today will be her first taste of those conditions.
- Only course winner (1 from 1 here)
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
This horse has been off the track for over 300 days — the longest absence in the field by a wide margin — so ring rustiness is a real concern. When she did run, she finished third at Newbury in a higher class of race, which hints at some ability, but a ten-month break is a significant hurdle to overcome on return. At odds of 11.0, you are being asked to trust that the long layoff has not dulled her edge.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
- Absent 302 days (longest in field)
Aunt Roberta has just one race to her name and finished sixth in it, beaten nearly ten lengths at this course 37 days ago. With odds of 51.0 and nothing in the form book to build on, she looks like the longest of long shots against two rivals who finished well ahead of her last time. Two races is not much of a sample, but her data so far points firmly in one direction.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
Two races in and still without a win or a placed finish, Scarlet Letter has been beaten seven lengths or more on both outings. The jockey-trainer combination of Jack Doughty and David Menuisier has yet to win together in five attempts, and odds of 67.0 reflect how little the market thinks of her chances here. She drops two class levels today, but her form gives little reason to expect a sudden turnaround.
- Drops 2 classes from usual level
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (2 career races)
Despite being the market favourite, Agrippa's only run ended in fifth place — beaten by one and a half lengths at Doncaster — so there is very little evidence to justify that position at the top of the market. The trainer Richard Hannon sends out winners at a high volume and clearly rates this horse, which may explain the confidence. The odds have still drifted sharply from their opening price, which muddies the picture further.
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
- Market favourite (4.8)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?Despite being the market favourite, Agrippa's only run ended in fifth place — beaten by one and a half lengths at Doncaster — so there is very little evidence to justify that position at the top of the market. The trainer Richard Hannon sends out winners at a high volume and clearly rates this horse, which may explain the confidence. The odds have still drifted sharply from their opening price, which muddies the picture further.
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
- Market favourite (4.8)
Untouchable is another first-time racer, but by Too Darn Hot — a sire who excelled as a two-year-old himself and tends to pass on speed and early maturity — which is exactly what you want for a six-furlong debut on dry ground. Stall 4 is a decent low draw, and at 8-1 it is the best-priced of all the debutants in the field. With no form to judge it against, it is a leap of faith, but the breeding and price make it one of the more compelling unknowns here.
- Racecourse debut
The only horse in this field that has already won a race, Satellite Of Love went to Windsor 56 days ago and came back with a victory first time out — a clean, confident debut. However, the odds have drifted dramatically from a very short opening price, which suggests the market has cooled significantly on its chances here. Worth watching, but the betting movement is a flag.
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
Can't Stop is one of only three horses in this race with any racing experience, and it used that debut run to finish second — a solid introduction that puts it ahead of most of its rivals here on form. It also draws stall 2, one of the lowest and most favourable in the field. At 6.2, it is reasonably priced given it already knows what racing feels like, which counts for something in a field full of complete unknowns.
- Racecourse debut
Sayid Harry Angel makes its debut from stall 10 — the widest draw in the field and, based on historical data at this course, the least favourable position of any runner today. His sire Harry Angel was an elite sprinter, so the speed is in the blood for this six-furlong test, and top jockey William Buick takes the ride, which signals some confidence from the camp. The wide draw is a genuine disadvantage though, and that alone makes this harder to recommend.
- Racecourse debut
Another first-time racer, California School is trained by Roger Varian, one of the most respected handlers in British flat racing, and draws stall 1 — statistically the best position at this course and distance. By Starspangledbanner out of an Invincible Spirit mare, the speed pedigree is there for a six-furlong dash. No form to judge, but the draw and trainer combination makes this one of the more interesting debutants in the field.
- Racecourse debut
First Mate is one of two debutants trained by Eve Johnson Houghton in this race, and jockey Charles Bishop has an established relationship with the yard, winning roughly 1 in 8 races together. By Naval Crown out of an Oasis Dream mare, the breeding points to a horse that could handle fast, dry ground and a sharp six furlongs. No form to assess, but the jockey-trainer combination has genuine substance behind it.
- Racecourse debut
Baddaddan has never raced before, so there is genuinely nothing to go on beyond breeding — by Mehmas out of a Kodiac mare, both known for producing fast, early-developing horses suited to short distances like this. It holds the most favourable draw in the field at stall 3, which gives it a small statistical edge on a track where low-numbered draws perform best. At 26-1, it is a long shot, but the breeding profile fits the race.
- Racecourse debut
Rapid Deployment has one run to its name — a seventh-place finish, beaten over eleven lengths at Lingfield — and today's dry ground is conditions it has never encountered before, having only raced on a different surface. That combination of poor early form and an unknown reaction to today's conditions makes this a hard horse to back with confidence. Ralph Beckett is a trainer worth respecting, but the horse has a lot to prove.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
Chief Minister is making its racecourse debut with no form to speak of, trained by Eve Johnson Houghton, who also saddles First Mate in this same race. The dam is by Kingman, a sire known for producing horses that tend to improve over time rather than burst out of the gates first time — which makes a debut win a bigger ask. At 34-1, the market is not expecting much, and on the available evidence, that looks about right.
- Racecourse debut
Our editorial verdict flags her as the main danger to the selection, sharing the top rating in the field alongside Tavana on our figures at 91 — despite her official rating sitting 4lbs below the field average. She ran a solid third at Newmarket just two weeks ago, and her Class 2 win at Haydock in September shows she can perform at a high level. She arrives in good form and is hard to ignore at 8/1.
- Mid-range in the market (8.0)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?Our editorial verdict flags her as the main danger to the selection, sharing the top rating in the field alongside Tavana on our figures at 91 — despite her official rating sitting 4lbs below the field average. She ran a solid third at Newmarket just two weeks ago, and her Class 2 win at Haydock in September shows she can perform at a high level. She arrives in good form and is hard to ignore at 8/1.
- Mid-range in the market (8.0)
The most prolific winner in the field, having won 3 of her 5 career races — a better hit rate than any rival here. She's also the only horse with a strong record specifically at this seven-furlong trip, winning 2 from 3 attempts. However, her last run at Ascot was a distant 15th, and her odds have drifted sharply from what looked like strong support, which raises real questions about whether something is amiss.
- Best record at this trip (2 from 3)
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 2)
- Market favourite (3.25)
She arrives on the back of back-to-back wins at Catterick and wins roughly 1 in 2 races overall, which is an impressive clip. The concern is straightforward: those wins have all come at Catterick, and this is a step up in class against better rivals on a very different track — she's the lowest-rated horse in the race by 6lbs and carries the lightest weight in the field as a result.
- Lowest rated, 6lbs below average
- Carries lowest weight in field
- Best record on this ground (3 from 4)
The only horse in this field to have won over this exact course and distance, which is a genuine advantage at Newbury — but her last three runs have all been poor, including an 11th at Ascot and a 9th here at Newbury just two months ago. She's also meeting a new jockey for the first time today, adding another unknown. Hard to trust given the recent form, despite that course-and-distance win.
- Has won over this course and distance
Officially the highest-rated horse in the race by 5lbs, which is a significant edge on paper, but she hasn't raced in 350 days — the longest absence of any runner here. She showed genuine quality early in her career, finishing second at a higher level at Newmarket before winning, but two career races is very thin experience for this company, and we simply don't know how she'll return from such a long break.
- Top rated by 5lbs
- Lightly raced (2 career races)
- Absent 350 days (longest in field)
Along with Tavana, she's one of only two course winners in this field, and her record shows real consistency — two wins and four places from seven races. Her concern is that her best performances have come at shorter distances of five to six-and-a-half furlongs, and she's stepping up to seven furlongs today, which is an unproven trip for her.
- One of few course winners (1 wins here)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?Currently the market favourite despite drifting sharply from an opening price of 1.1, which suggests early confidence has cooled significantly. He arrives in good recent form — third and second in his last two runs — but carries the top weight alongside Made All and has won just once in 23 races across his career. The concern is that he holds the highest official rating in the field yet has never once found a winner's enclosure on any ground type tested.
- Market favourite (3.5)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?Currently the market favourite despite drifting sharply from an opening price of 1.1, which suggests early confidence has cooled significantly. He arrives in good recent form — third and second in his last two runs — but carries the top weight alongside Made All and has won just once in 23 races across his career. The concern is that he holds the highest official rating in the field yet has never once found a winner's enclosure on any ground type tested.
- Market favourite (3.5)
The standout angle here is simple: Alvesta is the only horse in this field who has actually won at Cartmel, doing so just 52 days ago, and she ran here again 22 days back and finished third. No other runner can claim that course form, which counts for a lot at a quirky track like this. She's also well suited to distances over two miles, and at odds of 4.1 she represents a compelling case built on facts rather than hope.
- Only course winner (1 from 2 here)
One of the more experienced horses in the field with four career wins from 40 races, and he ran just three days ago at Catterick — unusually quick turnaround that's worth noting. His best results have come on faster ground, and this normal-ground Cartmel surface doesn't obviously suit based on his record of zero wins from 13 races on good ground. Sits joint-top weight with Mr Lincoln, making his task no easier.
- One of the more successful in the field (4 career wins)
At seven years old with 50 career races under his belt, Animato is the most experienced runner in the field by some distance, but his recent form is poor — third, fifth, and sixth in his last three, with the defeats measured in double figures. He has won on faster ground before but has never won on standard ground in seven attempts, which is a concern here. At odds of 11.0, there's little obvious case to make for him reversing that trend today.
- One of the more successful in the field (4 career wins)
The most notable thing here is that this horse runs again just three days after finishing eighth, beaten over 26 lengths at Uttoxeter — an unusually short gap between races that raises questions about why. She has no wins from eight career races and her recent form reads 8-6-3, with the placed run coming 112 days ago. Without a win to her name and with the form lines pointing in the wrong direction, she looks to be among the outsiders in this field.
- Runs again after just 3 days
Ribble River has the best career win rate in this field — winning roughly one in every six races, compared to most rivals who win far less frequently. He has also run at Cartmel before and has a solid record on softer ground types, though his last three finishes of sixth, fifth, and fifth, beaten by huge margins, suggest he's not in the best form right now. The ability is there on paper, but he needs to find much better to justify a bet at 14.5.
- Best record on this ground (2 from 9)
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 6)
The lowest-rated horse in the field by some margin — 14 points below the field average — and after 38 races he has never won, making him one of two winless runners here alongside King Kodiak. He carries the lightest weight in the race, which is the one small advantage, and he has finished in the top five in each of his last six runs including two at Cartmel. Consistent in a finishing-fourth kind of way, but at 31.0 the math doesn't encourage optimism.
- Lowest rated, 13lbs below average
- Carries lowest weight in field
Seven years old and still winless from 16 career races, King Kodiak is one of two horses in this field yet to win. His form is erratic — he finished second at Perth just 41 days ago, beaten by just over a length, then came back three weeks later to finish seventh, beaten 27 lengths. That wild inconsistency makes him hard to trust, and he carries the fifth-lowest weight in the field.
- Winless from 16 career races
The market favourite at 4.5, and the form makes it easy to see why — three finishes in the top three on the bounce, including back-to-back wins at Uttoxeter most recently. The youngest and least experienced of the leading contenders with just 10 career races, but right now this horse is running like one peaking at exactly the right moment.
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
- Market favourite (4.5)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The market favourite at 4.5, and the form makes it easy to see why — three finishes in the top three on the bounce, including back-to-back wins at Uttoxeter most recently. The youngest and least experienced of the leading contenders with just 10 career races, but right now this horse is running like one peaking at exactly the right moment.
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
- Market favourite (4.5)
The top-rated horse in the field by 6 lbs, and the one with the best record on this normal ground — she has won 4 of her 11 races on similar conditions, a better conversion rate than any rival here. She also won at this very course last time out, just 56 days ago, which makes her the obvious benchmark. The big question is her odds drifting sharply from what they opened at, which hints at some behind-the-scenes uncertainty.
- Best record on this ground (4 from 11)
The standout course specialist in the field — she has won 2 of just 4 races at Cartmel, a record no other runner can match, and has won over this exact course and distance before. Her overall record is modest, but strip it back to Cartmel specifically and she looks like a different horse. She finished 5th here 56 days ago, so the course form is live, even if that run was disappointing.
- Course specialist (2 wins from 4 here)
- Has won over this course and distance
- Best record at this trip (2 from 4)
Third-highest rated in the field, and the jockey-trainer partnership has clicked in 8 of their 56 races together, which is a decent working relationship. However, his last run was a 6th-place finish at Sandown just 35 days ago, and he has never won on a left-handed course like Cartmel across 10 attempts — a red flag that's hard to ignore.
- Placed in 2 of last 3 races
Back-to-back wins in her last two races, and she has won 2 of 5 races on this kind of normal ground — the best ground record among the lower-weighted runners. The jockey has ridden 11 winners for this trainer from 74 races together, so there's a proper working relationship in place. She does step up in class here, but the form is hard to dismiss.
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
Wins roughly 1 in 4 races — the joint-best career win rate in the field — and has a strong record at distances over 2 miles. The worry is that this horse ran just 7 days ago, the quickest turnaround in the field, and finished 7th that day; this is also the first time this jockey-trainer combination have worked together, which adds uncertainty.
- Runs again after just 7 days
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
Finished second last time out at Newton Abbot, beaten just 1.5 lengths, which is a solid recent reference point after two very poor runs before that. He's rated 17 lbs below the top pick here, which means he's giving away a significant weight advantage on paper. The editorial flags him as a danger, but the figures suggest he'd need the favourites to underperform.
- Mid-range in the market (13.0)
The only other horse in the field to have won over this course and distance, which counts for plenty at a tricky track like Cartmel. The concern is a 168-day absence — the longest of any runner here — and two poor efforts before that break, finishing 5th and 11th in stronger company. Has plenty to prove on fitness alone.
- Has won over this course and distance
- Absent 168 days (longest in field)
Came into this race off a win at Kelso 55 days ago, but pulled up here at Cartmel on his most recent start just 20 days ago — a sharp turnaround that raises obvious concerns. His best form is tied to Kelso, where he has won 3 times, and there's little evidence he transfers that form to different tracks. Carrying one of the lowest weights in the field helps, but his Cartmel record is not encouraging.
- Among the more experienced (34 career races)
The oldest horse in the field at 10, carrying the lowest weight, and rated 18 lbs below the field average — the widest gap of any runner here. He has never won at Cartmel across 8 attempts, which is a damning stat for a horse with 44 career races of experience. Three consecutive placed finishes at Hexham show he's still running consistently, but this track and class look against him.
- Lowest rated, 17lbs below average
- Carries lowest weight in field
The least experienced horse in the field by some margin, with just 4 career races to his name, and the last two ended without completing the course — a fall at Hexham and a pulled-up at Sedgefield. This is also the first time this jockey and trainer have worked together. There is very little evidence to work with here, and what exists points to risk rather than reward.
- Relatively inexperienced (4 career races)
The market favourite at 5.7, and the form backs it up — he won at Hexham 27 days ago and was a photo-finish second at Market Rasen before that, making him the most visibly in-form runner in the race. He also has the best record on today's conditions of any horse in the field, winning two from five on normal ground. The concern is that he has never raced at Cartmel before, while several of his rivals know this quirky track inside out.
- Best record on this ground (2 from 5)
- Market favourite (5.7)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The market favourite at 5.7, and the form backs it up — he won at Hexham 27 days ago and was a photo-finish second at Market Rasen before that, making him the most visibly in-form runner in the race. He also has the best record on today's conditions of any horse in the field, winning two from five on normal ground. The concern is that he has never raced at Cartmel before, while several of his rivals know this quirky track inside out.
- Best record on this ground (2 from 5)
- Market favourite (5.7)
The horse who cannot stop finishing in the top three at Cartmel — three consecutive runner-up or better finishes here, including a win 22 days ago, make this the most in-form course specialist in the field. He also has the best record at this exact trip, having finished in the top three twice from three attempts at 2m 6f. The catch is that his overall win rate is modest at roughly 1 in 8, and he has never won on the sort of track layout Cartmel presents on paper.
- Course specialist (3 wins from 7 here)
- Best record at this trip (2 from 3)
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
She won at Cartmel 22 days ago, which is a big point in her favour on a track where course experience counts for a lot. What makes that win unusual is that it came after two very poor performances — eighth and sixth — so it is hard to know which version of this horse turns up today. She is also the lowest-rated runner in the field by some margin, carrying 12lbs less than the field average.
- One of the more successful in the field (4 career wins)
The editorial selection, and there is a clear case for him: he shares the joint-best win rate in the field — winning roughly 1 in every 3.5 races — and has been kept busy, racing three times in the last 77 days. He is rated 2lbs below top-rated Tommie Beau but is considered the sharper, more progressive horse right now. The worry is a poor record on today's ground conditions, having failed to win in six attempts on similar surfaces.
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
Three consecutive top-three finishes — including a win at Uttoxeter 20 days ago — means Oakley arrives in reasonable form, and his record on today's ground (two wins from eight on normal conditions) is respectable. He is rated at the field average, so carries no weight advantage, and has never raced at Cartmel before. Solid but not obviously well-placed to trouble the leaders.
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
Back-to-back wins at Aintree and Chepstow before a narrow second at Uttoxeter 35 days ago — that is a purple patch of form that deserves respect in any field. She wins roughly 1 in every 6 races overall but has hit a real vein recently, and her record on normal ground is the best of any horse in this field: three wins from ten attempts. Cartmel is a first visit, but the form says she belongs here.
- Placed in 2 of last 3 races
The undisputed Cartmel expert in this field — three wins from eight races here is a record no other runner comes close to matching. At 11 years old with 45 races and 12 wins behind him, he is the most battle-hardened horse in the race by some distance. He was runner-up here just 54 days ago, but today's normal ground is a concern: he has won only once in eight races on similar conditions.
- Course specialist (3 wins from 8 here)
- Most experienced (45 runs, field avg 24)
This horse has not run for 196 days — the longest absence in the entire field — after pulling up in a top-level race at Sandown, which makes her a genuine unknown today. Her record on today's normal ground is also a red flag: zero wins from five attempts on similar conditions, compared to an impressive three wins from four on softer ground. She may need this run to find her feet again.
- Absent 196 days (longest in field)
The top-rated horse in the race on official figures — narrowly ahead of Peaky Boy and Tommie Beau — and a horse whose CV includes a top-level win at Cheltenham in November 2023. He has not won in his last five races though, and has been pulled up once in that run, which will give punters pause. His record on soft or wet ground is also poor, though today's normal conditions are more to his liking.
- One of the more successful in the field (6 career wins)
Three wins from seven races at Cartmel makes this horse one of only two genuine course specialists in the field alongside Tommie Beau, and his record here is actually the better percentage of the two. The problem is his most recent run here, just 20 days ago, produced a sixth-place finish beaten over 22 lengths — a sharp drop from the win and near-miss that preceded it. Carries the lowest weight in the field, which helps, but his form needs to bounce back.
- Carries lowest weight in field
- Course specialist (3 wins from 7 here)
The lowest-rated horse in the race, sitting 14lbs below the field average on official ratings — a significant gap at this level. His last two runs at Cartmel brought finishes of sixth and eighth, and the wider recent form offers little encouragement either. The data does not suggest he can bridge that gap today.
- Lowest rated, 14lbs below average
Hard to make a case for this one based on the numbers: one win from 21 career races, and he fell at his last outing just 12 days ago in Ireland. He has raced predominantly on Irish tracks and his form in Britain is limited, with recent finishes of 8th and 4th before that fall. The data simply does not support optimism here.
- Mid-range in the market (13.5)
At 13 years old, Dinons is the oldest horse in the race and is priced accordingly at 30.0 — a big outsider. He has finished third in two of his last three completed races, so he is not disgracing himself, but he has never won on today's ground conditions in seven attempts. At his age and price, this is a horse for admirers rather than punters.
- Outsider at 30.0
The market favourite, and it's easy to see why — this horse has won its last two races, both at Cartmel, and finished third here the run before that. Three straight top-three finishes at this course is the most compelling recent form in the field, and he clearly loves racing here. He's the one all the others need to beat, and at 3.5 on the betting, plenty of people agree.
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
- Market favourite (3.5)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The market favourite, and it's easy to see why — this horse has won its last two races, both at Cartmel, and finished third here the run before that. Three straight top-three finishes at this course is the most compelling recent form in the field, and he clearly loves racing here. He's the one all the others need to beat, and at 3.5 on the betting, plenty of people agree.
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
- Market favourite (3.5)
This horse has the best record in the field on normal ground — three wins from nine races on this type of surface, which is a genuinely strong stat. He's won at Cartmel before, but his most recent run here ended in a pull-up just 20 days ago, which is a real concern heading back to the same track so quickly. The ground suits, the course suits, but that last run here needs explaining.
- Best record on this ground (3 from 9)
Star Turn has finished second in three of his last four races, including a second place at this very course 20 days ago, beaten by just a length — he came agonisingly close. He's never won in 14 career races, so the question isn't whether he'll be competitive, it's whether he can finally get over the line. The first-time combination of jockey and trainer is a small uncertainty, but his recent Cartmel form makes him a live contender.
- Placed in 2 of last 3 races
Second highest-rated horse in the field, and his jockey and trainer have won together roughly 1 in every 8 races — a solid partnership. His only two wins have both come at Hexham, a very different type of track, and he's never won at a left-handed, galloping course like Cartmel in 10 attempts. A consistent horse, but yet to prove he can translate that form here.
- 2nd highest rated (OR 94)
The longest absence in the field by some distance — this horse hasn't raced in 153 days, more than five months off. In 21 career races he has never won, though he has placed six times to show there's some ability there. Coming back from a long break into a competitive race, he's the biggest unknown in the field today.
- Absent 153 days (longest in field)
On paper, this horse has a remarkable Cartmel record — three wins from 11 races here, which is the best course record in this field. The problem is his three most recent visits have produced a sixth, a seventh, and a pull-up, suggesting whatever magic he once had here may have faded. He's also the lowest-rated of the course winners in the race, 6lbs below the top-rated Roxboro River.
- Has won over this course and distance
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 5)
The key standout here: Lights Are Green has won over this exact course and distance, and has the best record in the field at this trip with two wins from eight races at 3m 2f. He was third at Cartmel just 56 days ago, showing he retains ability around this track. However, his two most recent runs both ended in pull-ups, which is a serious red flag that can't be ignored.
- Has won over this course and distance
- Best record at this trip (2 from 8)
Tell Me Again has never won in 10 career races, and the recent form is poor — eighth at Hexham, then fifth at Cartmel three weeks ago, beaten nearly 14 lengths. He's the outsider of the field at 29-1 for good reason, and nothing in his record suggests today's race is the one where things change. Honest data, honest assessment: hard to make a case for him here.
- Winless from 10 career races
The form figures say top-rated in this field by 6lbs, and two second-place finishes in the past three weeks show he's running well right now. The worry is a poor record on normal ground — zero wins from 12 races on this type of surface — and the odds have drifted sharply despite his rating advantage. He carries the most weight in the race and it's the first time this jockey and trainer have teamed up, which adds a small question mark.
- Top rated by 6lbs
Rated 12lbs below the field average — the biggest gap between any horse and the rest — and winless from 19 career races, with a ninth place at Perth just 16 days ago. He carries the lightest weight in the race, which gives him a physical advantage, but his figures are well below the standard needed to compete here. The data doesn't offer much encouragement.
- Lowest rated, 12lbs below average
- Carries lowest weight in field
The market favourite at 3.5 despite never having won in 12 career races — punters are clearly backing potential over proven results. The case for her is a consistent recent record of placing, with four runner-up finishes in her last six races suggesting she's knocking hard on the door. She carries the lightest weight in the field, which is a real advantage, but she'll need to find something extra to finally get off the mark.
- Carries lowest weight in field
- Market favourite (3.5)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The market favourite at 3.5 despite never having won in 12 career races — punters are clearly backing potential over proven results. The case for her is a consistent recent record of placing, with four runner-up finishes in her last six races suggesting she's knocking hard on the door. She carries the lightest weight in the field, which is a real advantage, but she'll need to find something extra to finally get off the mark.
- Carries lowest weight in field
- Market favourite (3.5)
The most experienced horse in the race with 46 career runs — nearly double the field average — and arriving in the best immediate form of anyone here, with three consecutive top-three finishes including a near miss just 11 days ago. The catch is he's rated 8lbs below the field average and has never won on a left-handed sharp track like Cartmel in 18 attempts. Tough and consistent, but that course-type record is a stubborn obstacle.
- Lowest rated, 8lbs below average
- Most experienced (46 runs, field avg 24)
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
Top-rated in this field and the only proven winner at Cartmel among the main contenders, with three career wins coming specifically at this course — a remarkable record of specialisation. The big worry is that all those wins came on wet ground, and he has never won on normal conditions in eight attempts. His last run here ended in a distant seventh, so the drifting odds from a morning favourite down to 5.5 suggest punters have noticed that concern.
- Top rated by 3lbs
- Has won over this course and distance
- Best record at this trip (3 from 8)
Second-highest rated horse in the race and, like the selection, one of only two runners who has actually won around Cartmel before. The problem is he has gone 6-4-7 in his last three races, including a 19-length sixth here just 20 days ago, and he has never won on a left-handed sharp track like this one in eight attempts. A persistent place-getter with just one win from 15 races, he seems to keep finding a reason to get beaten.
- Has won over this course and distance
The editorial verdict names this horse as one of the main dangers, yet Forsa Bay has never won a race in 11 career attempts — the only winless horse among the four fancied runners. The last outing ended in a pull-up at Market Rasen, and the run before that was a 24-length fifth. There is clearly some ability tucked in there given three placed finishes, but the evidence for a first win arriving here is thin.
- Winless from 11 career races
The most experienced horse in the field alongside Getaway Jewel, with 45 races under his belt and seven wins — the joint-best win rate in the field. His standout marker is the best record on normal ground of any runner here, making today's conditions a genuine plus. He finished third and fifth at Cartmel in his last two runs, so he clearly knows the track, though he's yet to win there specifically.
- Best record on this ground (6 from 31)
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 6)
Rated 15lbs below the top-rated Cuzco Du Mathan, this horse comes in below the field average on the ratings and hasn't won on a left-handed galloping track in nine attempts. Recent form shows a third place sandwiched between two fifth-place finishes, which paints a picture of a horse that occasionally gets involved without ever threatening to win. Not among the dangers identified by the form analysts.
- One of the more successful in the field (3 career wins)
At 41-1, this is the rank outsider in the field by some distance — and the recent form makes that price hard to argue with. Three runs in a row have produced two unseated riders and a pull-up, all in the last few months. One win from 22 career races tells its own story, and this looks a very tough assignment.
- Outsider at 41.0
The market favourite and easy to see why — this horse has won four of its last five races, including a win right here at Cartmel just 22 days ago. With the best win rate in the field across a career and an excellent record on normal ground conditions, it arrives in the hottest form of any runner. The main worry is that it has never won on softer ground if conditions change, but on a dry day at a course it has already conquered, this is the standout in-form contender.
- Best record on this ground (5 from 8)
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
- Market favourite (2.1)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The market favourite and easy to see why — this horse has won four of its last five races, including a win right here at Cartmel just 22 days ago. With the best win rate in the field across a career and an excellent record on normal ground conditions, it arrives in the hottest form of any runner. The main worry is that it has never won on softer ground if conditions change, but on a dry day at a course it has already conquered, this is the standout in-form contender.
- Best record on this ground (5 from 8)
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
- Market favourite (2.1)
Four of Sean Og's five career wins have come right here at Cartmel — that's a remarkable and very specific record that makes this course-and-distance specialist impossible to ignore. He won here 54 days ago over this exact trip, so he arrives knowing the track intimately and with recent winning form at the venue. He was beaten over 10 lengths last time out at Cartmel, but that still makes him one of the most course-relevant horses in this small field.
- Course specialist (4 wins from 11 here)
- Has won over this course and distance
At 11 years old, Lermoos Legend is the most experienced horse in the field and crucially the only proven course winner here at Cartmel, which is a rare and relevant edge on a tight, unusual track. He was beaten just a length at Ffos Las two runs ago, though he then finished seventh at Worcester most recently, so form is patchy. This is a new jockey-trainer combination today, which adds a layer of uncertainty.
- One of few course winners (1 wins here)
Got Grey has run twice at Cartmel recently, finishing third and then fifth, so familiarity with the course is not in doubt — but the gap back to the winner has been growing rather than shrinking. Wins 1 in every 9 races across its career, which is the lowest ratio among the main contenders here. The jockey-trainer partnership has managed just 3 wins from 83 races together, which is thin confidence from that corner.
- Mid-range in the market (8.0)
Rated 7lbs below the field average and carrying the lowest weight today, Moodofthemoment arrives on the back of a pulled-up run at Perth just 16 days ago — and the jockey and trainer have never worked together before. On the plus side, his record over this exact distance is the best in the field, winning 2 from just 4 races at 2m 5f. There's a slim case for him at a big price, but recent form and the unexplained partnership change make this a tough sell.
- Lowest rated, 7lbs below average
- Carries lowest weight in field
- Best record at this trip (2 from 4)
The top-rated horse in this field by 3lbs, Red Happy has won 12 times from 48 races — roughly 1 in every 4 — including a Class 2 win at Carlisle as recently as March. However, the market has swung dramatically against him, drifting from near-even money to 36/1, and his last run here at Cartmel ended with a pulled-up finish just three weeks ago. The rating says he's the best horse in the race, but the odds and that recent non-finish raise a big question mark.
- Top rated by 3lbs
- Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
The only horse in this field to have won on its first career race, Quillan looked impressive doing so at Redcar just four weeks ago. However, the odds have drifted dramatically from an early 1.1 to around 2.6, which suggests the market has had second thoughts — worth noting before getting too excited. One race tells you very little, but what it showed was enough to make this a genuine contender.
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The only horse in this field to have won on its first career race, Quillan looked impressive doing so at Redcar just four weeks ago. However, the odds have drifted dramatically from an early 1.1 to around 2.6, which suggests the market has had second thoughts — worth noting before getting too excited. One race tells you very little, but what it showed was enough to make this a genuine contender.
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
The market favourite and the most experienced horse in this five-runner field, with a win and a second place from two career races — a better record than any rival here. Jockey David Allan and trainer Tim Easterby are a well-drilled team, winning roughly 1 in 10 of their races together across more than 2,300 attempts, so this is a professional operation. The one question mark is that Warby has never raced on normal ground before, having run on a different surface in both previous outings.
- Never raced on normal ground
- Lightly raced (2 career races)
- Market favourite (2.02)
Ran second on its only career race at Carlisle 24 days ago, beaten by just a length and a half, which is a solid starting point for such an inexperienced horse. Like Warby, this horse has never raced on today's normal ground conditions, so that is an unknown for both of the market's main contenders. At odds of 12, it represents a longer shot, but a debut second is more encouraging than what most of the other rivals here have shown.
- Never raced on normal ground
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
Finished fourth in its only race at Ayr just 13 days ago, beaten by just over a length, so the experience is fresh and the turnaround is quick. The jockey and trainer have won together only twice from 28 races, which is a low hit rate and worth bearing in mind. There is a small amount of encouragement in how close the defeat was, but this horse arrives needing to take a step forward.
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
Inca Warrior has only one race to its name and finished fourth in it, which gives us almost nothing to go on in terms of ability. The odds have collapsed from 1.1 to 31, suggesting the market has well and truly written this one off based on that debut. Honest assessment: this is the most unknown quantity in the field right now.
- Racecourse debut
The top-rated horse in this field by 3lbs and officially the market favourite, though punters have clearly had second thoughts — the odds drifted dramatically from 1.1 to 3.0. Eight races in and still looking for a first win, though it has finished in the top three four times, including a close second at Thirsk six weeks ago. Drawn in stall 2, which is a solid low draw at Ripon where the stats favour horses on that side of the track.
- Top rated by 3lbs
- Market favourite (3.0)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The top-rated horse in this field by 3lbs and officially the market favourite, though punters have clearly had second thoughts — the odds drifted dramatically from 1.1 to 3.0. Eight races in and still looking for a first win, though it has finished in the top three four times, including a close second at Thirsk six weeks ago. Drawn in stall 2, which is a solid low draw at Ripon where the stats favour horses on that side of the track.
- Top rated by 3lbs
- Market favourite (3.0)
The most experienced horse in the field with 10 races under its belt, and it has placed in seven of them — a remarkably consistent record for a horse yet to win. Crucially, it finished second at this exact course back in May, beaten less than a length, making it the only proven course performer in the field. That Ripon experience could matter, though finishing sixth at Redcar last time out is a concern.
- 2nd highest rated (OR 69)
Two races, two placed finishes — Black Orchid has never come home without a share of the prize money, which is a tidy record even if the wins haven't come yet. One of those seconds came right here at Ripon, so it already knows this track, giving it a course edge it shares only with Valor Spirit. Joint-favourite at 3.0, it carries less weight than its rivals, which is a small physical advantage in a race like this.
- Lightly raced (2 career races)
Occupies the prime stall 1 draw at Ripon, where low-drawn horses have a clear advantage over this distance — a small but real edge in a tight field. However, the form heading into this race is poor: fifth, fourth and eighth in its last three outings, beaten nearly 10 lengths most recently at Ayr. Like Master Of Delphi, it has never raced on normal ground, so today's conditions are uncharted territory.
- Never raced on normal ground
The least experienced horse in the field by a distance — just one race to its name, a fifth-place finish beaten 12 lengths at Doncaster. It has never raced on normal ground before, so today is a step into the unknown on two fronts. With virtually no data to go on, this one is almost impossible to assess with any confidence.
- Never raced on normal ground
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
Wins 43% of its races at today's distance of 1m4f, which is comfortably the best win rate in the field over this trip. However, its odds have drifted sharply from 3.75 out to 8.5 — a sign the market is cooling on it — and that last run at Newmarket was a heavy 13-length defeat just 14 days ago. The ground form also raises a flag: no wins from three attempts on dry, fast conditions, which is close to what's on offer today.
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?Wins 43% of its races at today's distance of 1m4f, which is comfortably the best win rate in the field over this trip. However, its odds have drifted sharply from 3.75 out to 8.5 — a sign the market is cooling on it — and that last run at Newmarket was a heavy 13-length defeat just 14 days ago. The ground form also raises a flag: no wins from three attempts on dry, fast conditions, which is close to what's on offer today.
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
Finished second by less than half a length at Hamilton just seven days ago, so arrives here bang in form and race-fit. It ran in a Class 2 at Goodwood earlier this season, which tells you this horse has shown it can operate at a higher level than today's Class 3 contest. The concern is a poor record on left-handed tracks — Ripon runs left-handed — with no wins from five attempts on that configuration.
- Runs again after just 7 days
The best record in the field on today's ground conditions, winning 2 from 5 races on normal turf — no other runner here comes close to that figure. It arrives in excellent shape too, with three finishes inside the top two on the bounce, including a win at Goodwood just 43 days ago. Today's 1m4f trip also plays to its strengths, with a 31% win rate at this distance range.
- Best record on this ground (2 from 5)
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
Its odds have tumbled from 11.0 to 7.5, suggesting someone is keen, but the recent form makes that confidence hard to understand — it finished 20th at York just seven days ago, beaten nearly 24 lengths. It also has no wins from seven attempts on normal ground, which is the surface it faces today. Coming back in just a week from such a heavy defeat is a bold call.
- Runs again after just 7 days
The market has made this the favourite at 5.0 despite it being the lowest-rated horse in the field by seven pounds and having never won a race in four attempts. It does carry the lightest weight, which helps in a race like this, and its last two finishes of second suggest it is improving race by race. The big unknown is that it has never raced on normal ground before, so today is a genuine step into the unknown for a young horse still learning its trade.
- Lowest rated, 7lbs below average
- Carries lowest weight in field
- Never raced on normal ground
- Market favourite (5.0)
The only horse in this field to have won at Ripon, and the record here is remarkable — 4 wins from just 8 races at this track, a 50% hit rate that no rival comes close to matching. It won here just 51 days ago, which is the most recent Ripon win in the field. The concern is that its last two runs away from Ripon were poor, so the course form needs to do the heavy lifting today.
- Only course winner (4 from 8 here)
Our top pick on the ratings, but the market hasn't fully bought in — it sits out at 9.5 despite being the highest-rated horse in the field by a clear margin. With 58 career races, it is by far the most experienced runner here (the field averages 28 races), and it has been freshening up nicely with a second place at Carlisle recently. The awkward detail is that it has never won on normal ground in 13 attempts, which is precisely the conditions on offer today.
- Most experienced (58 runs, field avg 28)
- Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
The best career win rate in the field — wins roughly 1 in every 4 races — but comes here after a 171-day absence, the longest break of any runner today. It also has the best record at this trip, winning 10 of its 26 races over a similar distance, which is a genuinely eye-catching stat. The question mark is pure fitness: can a horse return from nearly six months off and produce its best straight away?
- Best record at this trip (10 from 26)
- Absent 171 days (longest in field)
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
The most consistent horse in the field right now, with three straight top-three finishes including a second place at this exact course 30 days ago — the only runner with a recent Ripon placing to their name. The big red flag is the ground: Qitaal has never won on normal conditions in 13 attempts, with all three career wins coming on softer, wetter ground. You're essentially betting on a horse that loves mud to win on a dry track.
- Best record at this trip (2 from 26)
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The most consistent horse in the field right now, with three straight top-three finishes including a second place at this exact course 30 days ago — the only runner with a recent Ripon placing to their name. The big red flag is the ground: Qitaal has never won on normal conditions in 13 attempts, with all three career wins coming on softer, wetter ground. You're essentially betting on a horse that loves mud to win on a dry track.
- Best record at this trip (2 from 26)
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
The market favourite and easily the least experienced horse in the field with just three races to her name, but those three races tell a clean story: third, second, first — a horse going in the right direction. At just three years old, she's racing against older, more battle-hardened horses, and this is comfortably the biggest field and toughest company she's faced. Whether that rapid improvement can continue against seasoned rivals is the question the market hasn't fully answered.
- Lightly raced (3 career races)
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
- Market favourite (3.15)
An eight-year-old veteran with 39 races behind him, Yermanthere actually has the best record in the field on normal ground — winning 2 from 12 attempts, which is a better ratio than any of his rivals today. He won at Ripon just 30 days ago, so he clearly knows his way around this course. The worry is that his record on left-handed tracks — where Ripon sits — reads zero wins from 13 attempts, which is a puzzling contradiction in the data.
- Best record on this ground (2 from 12)
The top-rated horse in the field by 3lbs and fresh off a win at Beverley just 15 days ago, Midnight Strike arrives with the best form and a fitness advantage over several rivals. However, this is a significant step up in class — three levels above recent races — and the record on normal ground is a genuine concern: zero wins from five attempts on similar conditions. The odds drifting sharply from near-evens suggests the market has noticed those risks too.
- Top rated by 3lbs
- Steps up 3 classes
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 8)
Lucky Hero is the biggest drifter in the market, now trading at 13.0, and the recent form makes it easy to see why — a 17th-place finish at York followed by a fourth at Chester doesn't inspire confidence. The data also flags zero wins from four attempts on normal ground, which is exactly what's on offer today. There's a win in there from 79 days ago at Redcar, but this horse looks to have dropped well below that level since.
- Placed in 2 of last 3 races
At 11 years old, Poet's Dawn is the most experienced horse in the field by a distance — 79 races compared to a field average of 30 — but experience and current ability are different things. Rated 8lbs below the field average and carrying the lightest weight, the ratings suggest this horse needs significant improvement just to be competitive. A third at Ripon 12 days ago at least shows some recent form, but winning from this position would be a genuine surprise.
- Lowest rated, 7lbs below average
- Carries lowest weight in field
- Most experienced (79 runs, field avg 30)
The market favourite and only a pound below Cadarn in the ratings, Jimmy Speaking is the most dangerous rival to the selection. It has found good and normal ground conditions to its liking before, but has never won on fast, dry ground in 8 attempts — worth noting given today's conditions sit close to that territory. Draw 1 puts it in the lowest-performing part of Ripon's track at this distance, which is a small but real disadvantage.
- Market favourite (3.0)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The market favourite and only a pound below Cadarn in the ratings, Jimmy Speaking is the most dangerous rival to the selection. It has found good and normal ground conditions to its liking before, but has never won on fast, dry ground in 8 attempts — worth noting given today's conditions sit close to that territory. Draw 1 puts it in the lowest-performing part of Ripon's track at this distance, which is a small but real disadvantage.
- Market favourite (3.0)
The top-rated horse in the field by some margin and the one our ratings favour, Cadarn wins roughly 1 in 4 races across its career — the best win rate here. It has a strong record at this distance, winning 2 of its 3 races over a mile, and won at York last time out. The concern is that its record on normal ground is poor (no wins from 3 races), which is exactly what it faces today.
- Best record at this trip (2 from 3)
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
Jesmond Dawn carries the lowest weight in the field and is rated 7lbs below the average — both advantages in a race like this — and, crucially, it won over this exact course and distance just 12 days ago. It is the freshest course winner in the field and arrives in the best recent form of any runner, with three straight visits to the frame. The risk is that it has never won on a right-handed, undulating track like Ripon in 5 previous attempts — except, of course, last time out.
- Lowest rated, 7lbs below average
- Carries lowest weight in field
- Has won over this course and distance
At 11 years old, Garden Oasis is the oldest horse in the field by three years, but crucially it is one of only two runners today who have won over this course and distance — and it has done so four times at Ripon, giving it a 19% win rate here. It is also the lower-rated of the two course winners, sitting 13lbs below Cadarn in the weights, which gives it some room. Its best form comes on fast, dry ground, which is a plus today.
- Has won over this course and distance
The standout fact here is that Sir Paul Ramsey has won 2 from 7 races on normal ground — the best record on today's conditions in the field. However, its last three runs have been poor, finishing 7th, 6th, and 11th, and a 4-year-old claiming jockey takes the ride rather than the stable's more experienced options. Hard to fancy on current form despite the ground profile.
- Best record on this ground (2 from 7)
At 8 years old, this is the most experienced horse in the field with 52 races under its belt, but three consecutive fifth-place finishes at Kempton suggest it is stuck in a rut right now. Its best record comes on normal or soft ground, which is a point in its favour today, but it has never won on good ground in 7 attempts. At odds of 11.0, the market is not convinced a change of course sparks a revival.
- One of the more successful in the field (5 career wins)
The standout marker here is misleading — the data shows 'placed in 2 of last 3 races', but the actual results show a 14th, 6th, and 12th, so treat that with caution. Ben Lawers has just one win from 13 races, has never won on normal ground in 6 attempts, and this jockey-trainer combination has no wins together from their one previous race. The data is thin and the form is poor — hard to make a case here.
- Placed in 2 of last 3 races
The market favourite despite carrying the lowest weight in the field and being rated 7lbs below the field average — punters clearly like what they see. She won here at Ripon just 30 days ago and finished a close 4th only two days ago at Thirsk, so she is in cracking recent form and race-fit. The big concern is that she has never won on normal ground in six attempts, and Ripon's left-handed, galloping layout is a track type where she has yet to record a win from seven tries.
- Lowest rated, 7lbs below average
- Carries lowest weight in field
- Runs again after just 2 days
- Market favourite (3.4)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The market favourite despite carrying the lowest weight in the field and being rated 7lbs below the field average — punters clearly like what they see. She won here at Ripon just 30 days ago and finished a close 4th only two days ago at Thirsk, so she is in cracking recent form and race-fit. The big concern is that she has never won on normal ground in six attempts, and Ripon's left-handed, galloping layout is a track type where she has yet to record a win from seven tries.
- Lowest rated, 7lbs below average
- Carries lowest weight in field
- Runs again after just 2 days
- Market favourite (3.4)
The best career win rate in the field by some distance — winning roughly 1 in every 4 races — and he has finished in the top three in each of his last three outings, which is the kind of consistent form that stands out in this company. The editorial figures back that up, tying him with Singarda just a point behind the selection. The only hesitation is that he has never won on slower-than-normal ground, and this jockey-trainer combination are working together for the first time today.
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
She steps up two class levels today, which is a significant jump for a horse that has yet to win in five career races. Like several others in this field, she has never raced on normal ground, so today brings an extra unknown. A third-place finish last time out is encouraging, but she faces stiffer competition here than anything she has encountered before.
- Steps up 2 classes
- Never raced on normal ground
The standout fact here is a simple one: she is the only horse in this field who has already won over this course and distance, taking a race at Ripon just 51 days ago. That makes her unique among nine runners and gives her proven form on the very track and trip she faces today. She comes off a disappointing 8th last time out, but the form before that — a win and a third — shows what she is capable of when right.
- Only winner at this distance
- Has won over this course and distance
The editorial selection and top-rated on the figures, though by just a single point from Sparkling Pink — this is a genuinely tight call. Eleven races and still winless, but she has placed six times which shows she is consistently involved without ever quite sealing the deal. She steps up two class levels today and her most recent run result is unclear from the data, so there is some uncertainty heading in — take the rating edge with that caveat in mind.
- Steps up 2 classes
The editorial figures rate her just a pound behind top pick Sovereign Bright, making her the closest danger on paper in what is a very tight field. Her one career win came on normal ground like today, giving her the best record in the field under these conditions — winning 1 in every 4 races on this type of surface. The concern is Ripon's left-handed, galloping layout: she has never won on that type of track in six attempts, which is a real flag.
- Best record on this ground (1 from 4)
Three races, no wins, no placed finishes — and a sequence of 11th, 11th and 7th makes this the most lightly raced and least proven horse in the field. She has never raced on normal ground before and is stepping into fresh territory on multiple fronts. There simply is not enough evidence here to make a confident case for her, and the data says so honestly.
- Never raced on normal ground
- Lightly raced (3 career races)
Nine races without a single top-three finish is a tough record to look past, and despite the editorial figures placing him level with Mohmentous just off the top, the underlying form does not back up that rating. He is drawn in stall 1 on the inside rail, and at Ripon over a mile the low draws win only about 1 in 9 races — the worst part of the track at this distance. He does race today with cheekpieces and a tongue strap, which sometimes signals a horse being freshened up for a bold show, but there is no win to point to.
- Mid-range in the market (10.0)
Still looking for a first win after five races, and the recent form — finishing 11th, 8th and 5th — offers little encouragement. Crucially, he has never raced on normal ground before, so today brings an unknown element at a course that already shows a modest win rate from his mid-draw position. He has drifted dramatically in the market, and honestly, the data gives you very little reason to back him here.
- Never raced on normal ground
- Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
The market has made this the favourite despite the horse never having won a race in 13 attempts — an unusual vote of confidence. To be fair, the form is tidy enough: fourth at Redcar just over two months ago, placed three times in total, and never too far off the pace. But punters backing a horse that has never crossed the line first need a good reason to believe today is different, and it's not obvious what that reason is.
- Market favourite (3.75)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The market has made this the favourite despite the horse never having won a race in 13 attempts — an unusual vote of confidence. To be fair, the form is tidy enough: fourth at Redcar just over two months ago, placed three times in total, and never too far off the pace. But punters backing a horse that has never crossed the line first need a good reason to believe today is different, and it's not obvious what that reason is.
- Market favourite (3.75)
The only horse in this field — along with Hurstwood — who has won over this exact course and distance, which is a genuine edge in a field where most rivals haven't got off the mark at all. His record on normal conditions reads one win from five races, better than most here. The last six runs haven't threatened a winner, but a fourth at Chepstow three weeks ago suggests he's ticking over, and Silvestre De Sousa is a significant booking at this level.
- Has won over this course and distance
- Best record on this ground (1 from 5)
Has finished second in two of her last three races, so the form is genuinely warm heading into today. Like Oasis Cover, she carries three consecutive top-three finishes into this race, making her one of only two horses in the field who can say that. The weakness is that she has never won on normal conditions in seven attempts — and today's ground is exactly that.
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
Zero wins from ten races is the headline, but the recent form is more encouraging than that number suggests — a second at Catterick beaten just a neck, followed by a fourth at Ripon on this same course just 12 days ago. The jockey-trainer combination of David Allan and Tim Easterby has produced 245 wins together, by far the most potent pairing in this field, and that carries weight. Draw ten puts him in the middle band where conditions are less favourable, which is a small but real disadvantage.
- Winless from 10 career races
Our selection for this race, rated 6lbs above the field average — the joint-highest official rating here alongside Oasis Cover. With just seven career races, he is the least experienced horse in the field, but earlier form showed back-to-back second-place finishes before a run of disappointments; the clock has backed up his more recent efforts according to our figures. He is drawn in stall seven, which sits in the middle band where around 1 in 10 races are won at this course and distance.
- Relatively inexperienced (7 career races)
Among the more experienced horses in this field with 22 races under his belt, but only one win to show for it — and that came over a year ago. A second place at Hamilton last month suggests he retains some ability, but a ninth at Thirsk just 17 days ago was a step back in the wrong direction. His record on normal conditions reads zero wins from six races, which is a concern given today's surface.
- Among the more experienced (22 career races)
One of only two horses in this field who has actually won at Ripon, which counts for something in a race like this. However, the recent form makes grim reading — three runs back he finished 11th, and his last effort at Redcar saw him beaten five and a half lengths in ninth. He has drifted badly in the market from a very short opening price, suggesting those closer to the horse aren't expecting a big run today.
- One of few course winners (1 wins here)
Running again just four days after a fourth at Beverley, which is a tight turnaround, though yards sometimes do this when a horse is feeling well. The form immediately before that was a second place at Beverley beaten just a head, so the horse has been knocking on the door. Draw two is good news given Ripon's low-draw bias at six furlongs, and cheekpieces are fitted to sharpen his focus.
- Runs again after just 4 days
Shares the joint-top official rating in the field alongside Von Trotter, and has put together three consecutive top-three finishes — the only horse in this race to manage that sequence. The most recent of those was a second place at Redcar beaten just over a length, so the form is live and the confidence is there. She also benefits from draw six, the best low-draw position in the field given Ripon's bias towards the inside at this trip.
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
Carries the lowest weight in the field and is rated 8lbs below the field average — the biggest ratings gap of any runner here — but she also has the best win rate in the field at roughly 1 in every 8 races across 42 career outings. The catch is she ran just two days ago at Hamilton, and however fresh she appears, that is a demanding schedule. The jockey-trainer combination of Cam Hardie and Philip Kirby has produced just one win from 157 races together, which is a very thin return.
- Lowest rated, 7lbs below average
- Carries lowest weight in field
- Runs again after just 2 days
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 8)
The most experienced horse in this field by a distance — 59 races compared to a field average of 22 — and one of only two runners who has won over this exact course and distance. He has won three times at Ripon from 16 attempts, a better course record than anyone else here, but his form on normal conditions is a real concern: just one win from 19 races on this type of ground. At nine years old, he is running purely on experience now, and the last six runs haven't come close to a win.
- Has won over this course and distance
- Best record at this trip (7 from 51)
- Most experienced (59 runs, field avg 22)
China In Your Hand is the market favourite at 2.25, and the clearest reason is that she has already shown more than most in this field — finishing third at Doncaster last time out, beaten just over a length. In a race where four rivals are making their debut and several others have struggled to get close to the places, that placed run makes her the most experienced threat here. Her odds have drifted from what looked like near-certainty, so the market has trimmed its enthusiasm slightly, but she still heads the betting by some distance.
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
- Market favourite (2.25)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?China In Your Hand is the market favourite at 2.25, and the clearest reason is that she has already shown more than most in this field — finishing third at Doncaster last time out, beaten just over a length. In a race where four rivals are making their debut and several others have struggled to get close to the places, that placed run makes her the most experienced threat here. Her odds have drifted from what looked like near-certainty, so the market has trimmed its enthusiasm slightly, but she still heads the betting by some distance.
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
- Market favourite (2.25)
Flooding makes her racecourse debut here with absolutely no form to go on — a blank slate. At 5.1 she is the second-shortest price in the field, which means her trainer and the market both believe she has serious ability despite never having raced. She is one of three debutantes in this field, but her odds make her the most fancied of the three by a clear margin.
- Racecourse debut
Necromancer makes her debut here and, like three others in this field, brings no race form to assess. What stands out is her trainer, Ralph Beckett, whose partnership with jockey Hector Crouch has produced 151 wins from 743 races — easily the most prolific jockey-trainer combination in this field, winning roughly 1 in 5 races together. That level of stable firepower behind a debut runner is worth noting, and her 9.0 price reflects genuine market interest.
- Racecourse debut
Caravel has just one race to her name, finishing seventh at Doncaster 28 days ago — beaten nearly six lengths with nothing to show in terms of a win or a placed finish. The big red flag here is that her odds have collapsed dramatically, drifting from a near-certainty to 9.5, which suggests the market has cooled sharply on her chances. With so little experience and the betting moving the wrong way, she looks hard to back with confidence.
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
Indian Lights steps onto a racecourse for the first time here, with no form whatsoever to analyse. At 26.0 she is among the longer prices in the field, and the jockey-trainer combination has yet to win together in four attempts, which does little to inspire confidence. She is a complete unknown, and the market is treating her as one.
- Racecourse debut
The standout concern for Angel Of Heaven is that today's dry ground is new territory — her only race came on a different surface at Kempton, so we genuinely don't know how she handles these conditions. She finished seventh on debut, beaten over 21 lengths, which was a far heavier defeat than market rival China In Your Hand suffered on the same day. She has the advantage of race experience over the four debutantes, but her form figures give little cause for optimism.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
Lunar Blossom arrives with no race experience at all, one of four debutantes in this field. At 17.0 she sits in the middle of the market among the first-timers, with no form to separate her from the guesswork. The jockey-trainer combination wins roughly 1 in 6 races together, which is a reasonable record, but there is nothing concrete to go on here beyond stable confidence.
- Racecourse debut
Kiah's sole race ended in an 11th-place finish at Newbury, beaten 11 lengths — the worst form figure of any runner in this field who has actually raced. At 51.0 she is one of the outsiders here, and the jockey-trainer combination has yet to record a win together in seven attempts. There is very little in the data to suggest she can reverse that debut performance sharply enough to trouble the principals.
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
Potters Margot has one race to her name — a fifth-place finish at Lingfield, beaten nearly six lengths — but today brings an untested factor: she has never raced on dry ground before, having only run at Lingfield on a different surface. That unknown is a real question mark, and at 67.0 the market is not taking any chances on her. She is in the same lightly-raced boat as several rivals, but the ground switch adds an extra layer of uncertainty.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
Pertinent is the most experienced horse in this field with two races under her belt, but the form makes for uncomfortable reading — 10th at Leicester on debut, then 9th at Leicester next time, beaten between 18 and 28 lengths on both occasions. At 251.0 she is a massive outsider, and nothing in her record suggests she can trouble a field that includes a horse who finished third at Doncaster. It is hard to make a case for her on current evidence.
- Lightly raced (2 career races)
The clear market favourite and rated 110 — a full nine points clear of the next-best horse in the field, which is a substantial advantage at this level. She has finished second in two of her last three races, showing she is in strong form, and her odds have shortened from 4.6 to 3.75 as race time approaches, meaning punters are backing her with confidence. The one flag is that she has never won on fast, dry ground in three attempts, though her rating puts her in a different class from most rivals here.
- Market favourite (3.75)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The clear market favourite and rated 110 — a full nine points clear of the next-best horse in the field, which is a substantial advantage at this level. She has finished second in two of her last three races, showing she is in strong form, and her odds have shortened from 4.6 to 3.75 as race time approaches, meaning punters are backing her with confidence. The one flag is that she has never won on fast, dry ground in three attempts, though her rating puts her in a different class from most rivals here.
- Market favourite (3.75)
Carries the best career win rate in the field, winning roughly 1 in every 3 races, and her record specifically at today's distance of a mile and four furlongs is even stronger at 60%. She was beaten only 1.1 lengths at this same Newmarket track earlier in her career, and she drops two levels in class today. A drifting price from 8.5 to 9.4 is a minor concern, but on form and conditions she looks a serious danger to the favourite.
- Drops 2 classes from usual level
- Best record at this trip (1 from 5)
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
Alongside Fashion's Fancy, she is one of only two horses in this field with just two career races — but she won her most recent outing at Kempton, arriving here on the back of a win rather than a defeat. Like her stablemate Fashion's Fancy, she has never raced on fast, dry ground, which introduces a real element of uncertainty at this level. Her price has shortened slightly from 5.5 to 5.0, making her the second-shortest in the market, though taking on established, higher-rated rivals with so little experience is a significant challenge.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (2 career races)
The only horse in the field who has already won at this Newmarket course, which is a meaningful edge in a nine-runner race — no other rival can say the same. She has won roughly 1 in every 3 races across her career, and her best form on today's type of dry ground also comes from here. Her last run was a below-par fourth at Carlisle, but she drops down two levels in class today and her record suggests she tends to perform when conditions suit.
- Drops 2 classes from usual level
- Only course winner (1 from 2 here)
- Best record on this ground (1 from 3)
Only two career races to her name, making her the least experienced horse in the field alongside Tribal Queen, but she won on her second outing at Haydock which shows real promise. The big unknown is that she has never raced on today's fast, dry ground — both her previous runs came on different conditions entirely. Her odds have drifted sharply from 4.5 to 8.6, which suggests the market has significant doubts about how she will handle the step up in class and conditions.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (2 career races)
Rated second-best in the field but still nine points below the favourite, Little Dorrit is the pick of the chasing pack on paper according to the editorial verdict. She has never won on fast, dry ground in three tries, and her recent run — fifth at Pontefract — doesn't inspire massive confidence. Her odds have drifted from 11.0 to 14.0 today, suggesting the market isn't convinced she can bridge the gap to Revoir.
- Outsider at 14.0
Drops a huge four levels in class from her recent runs, but her last outing — eighth at Epsom, beaten over 31 lengths — makes that context feel less reassuring. Like Fashion's Fancy, she has never raced on today's fast, dry ground, so how she handles conditions is a genuine unknown. Her odds have drifted notably from 5.5 to 8.8, and at just four races into her career she remains a horse with more questions than answers right now.
- Drops 4 classes from usual level
- Never raced on dry ground
Has finished in the top positions in 9 of her 10 career races, which is a remarkable level of consistency, but she has never won on today's fast, dry ground in three attempts. She drops down two levels in class here, which helps, but her recent form is mixed — a win at Thirsk was followed by a disappointing sixth at Pontefract. On the figures she sits well below the top-rated horses in this field, making it hard to see her turning the tables.
- Drops 2 classes from usual level
Rated 14 points below the top-rated runner in this field, Club Class arrives as the lowest-rated horse in the race by some margin. She has never won on today's dry conditions in three attempts, and her one career win came on a very different surface. The form shows plenty of placed efforts but just one win from 12 races, and the step up in class from her recent runs at Southwell and Kempton looks a tough ask.
- Drops 3 classes from usual level
The top-rated horse in this field by 4lbs, with a remarkable history of winning at the very highest level — both career Class 1 victories came on fast, dry ground just like today, giving him a 1-in-5 win rate in those conditions. But his recent form is a real concern: three runs back and he hasn't finished better than 8th, drifting badly in the market from a very short opening price. Worth noting he's ridden by a claiming jockey carrying a weight allowance, which softens the burden, but trust needs rebuilding.
- Top rated by 4lbs
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The top-rated horse in this field by 4lbs, with a remarkable history of winning at the very highest level — both career Class 1 victories came on fast, dry ground just like today, giving him a 1-in-5 win rate in those conditions. But his recent form is a real concern: three runs back and he hasn't finished better than 8th, drifting badly in the market from a very short opening price. Worth noting he's ridden by a claiming jockey carrying a weight allowance, which softens the burden, but trust needs rebuilding.
- Top rated by 4lbs
One of only two course winners in this field, with two victories right here at Newmarket — that local knowledge matters. The problem is he has never won on fast, dry ground in six attempts, and his last two runs include a heavy defeat at Newbury, so current form doesn't inspire confidence despite the solid course record.
- One of few course winners (2 wins here)
The most lightly raced horse in the field with just five races to his name, and by far the longest absentee — he hasn't run in over eight months, which makes him a real unknown quantity today. Crucially, he has never raced on fast, dry ground before, so nobody knows how he handles conditions he'll face here. The experienced jockey-trainer combination wins roughly 1 in 6 races together, and that experience could help, but this is a big ask on comeback.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Best record at this trip (1 from 4)
- Absent 255 days (longest in field)
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 5)
Three of this horse's four career wins have come at this exact track, making him the most proven course specialist in the field — no other runner comes close to matching that Newmarket record of 3 wins from 10 races here. He carries the lightest weight in the field, which is a real practical advantage in a race like this, and his record on fast, dry ground shows a win from four tries. The downside is his last two runs here were both 10th-place finishes, so he needs to find a better level than recent efforts suggest.
- Lowest rated, 5lbs below average
- Carries lowest weight in field
- Course specialist (3 wins from 9 here)
The market favourite and the most in-form horse in the field, having won right here at Newmarket just 29 days ago. However, he has never won on fast, dry ground in three attempts — all his wins have come on normal or softer conditions — which is a genuine question mark on a day like today. Drawn in stall 1, which historically produces only around 1 in 9 winners at this course and distance.
- Market favourite (4.33)
A seasoned campaigner with 48 races and 9 wins, he ran a solid third at Epsom just 17 days ago and arrives in good nick. He is one of only two course winners in the field, but his record on right-handed, galloping tracks like Newmarket is poor — just 1 win from 11 attempts — which is a persistent pattern that's hard to ignore.
- One of few course winners (1 wins here)
Hasn't raced in nearly six months, and his last run was a poor 8th on an artificial surface — this return to turf on dry ground is a different proposition, and he does hold a solid record on fast ground with 1 win from 3 attempts. Drawn widest of all in stall 7, which is the worst draw statistically at this course and distance, and at 15-1 the market isn't convinced he can bounce back after such a long break.
- Best record on this ground (1 from 3)
The market favourite and one of the few horses here with a positive record on today's fast, dry ground — winning 1 from 3 races in these conditions. He finished a close second at this very course just 14 days ago, which makes him the most relevant piece of recent form in the field.
- Best record on this ground (1 from 3)
- Market favourite (3.25)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The market favourite and one of the few horses here with a positive record on today's fast, dry ground — winning 1 from 3 races in these conditions. He finished a close second at this very course just 14 days ago, which makes him the most relevant piece of recent form in the field.
- Best record on this ground (1 from 3)
- Market favourite (3.25)
Three wins in a row is the hottest streak in this field, and he has a decent record on fast, dry ground with 2 wins from 6 races in those conditions. He steps up in class here, but a horse this in-form deserves respect even if the competition is stiffer than anything he has faced recently.
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
The editorial picks this seven-year-old as the narrow selection on ratings, but there's a real problem hiding in the data: he has never won on fast, dry ground in six attempts. Newmarket today is dry, and that is precisely the condition he struggles with most — making his drift in the market from a short price look more telling than surprising.
- One of the more successful in the field (6 career wins)
The best career win rate in this field at roughly 1 in every 5 races, and he won right here at Newmarket just 63 days ago. The concern is a poor record on fast, dry ground — just 1 win from 11 races in these conditions — which cuts against him today.
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 5)
The oldest horse in the field at nine and the lowest-rated runner, sitting 6lbs below the field average — that is a real hill to climb in a competitive race like this. On the plus side, he has three wins from 18 races at Newmarket, making him one of the course's more familiar faces, though his record on dry ground gives little encouragement.
- Lowest rated, 6lbs below average
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
The standout course specialist — three career wins at Newmarket is more than anyone else in this field. However, all his best form has come on soft or wet ground, and he has failed to win in five attempts on the standard or faster surfaces that today's dry conditions represent.
- One of few course winners (3 wins here)
The youngest horse in the race at three and carrying the lightest weight, which is an advantage in a contest where the top weights are lugging around significantly more. He has placed in five of his seven career races, but his one win came on slower ground and his recent runs have been modest — honest rather than threatening.
- Carries lowest weight in field
- Best record at this trip (1 from 3)
Racing for the very first time, so there is simply nothing to go on — no form, no previous race, no clues about how she handles a competitive field. A four-year-old making their debut in a race like this is unusual and the long odds of 29.0 reflect just how much of an unknown quantity she is.
- Racecourse debut
The market favourite despite being the lowest-rated horse in the field and absent for 318 days — the longest lay-off of any runner here by a considerable margin. Its last three runs all came at Kempton and resulted in 12th, 8th and 10th, which makes the confidence the market is showing something of a puzzle. The trainer Luke Morris combination wins roughly 1 in 6 races together, but there is a lot to take on trust with a horse returning from nearly a year off with no wins from four career races.
- Lowest rated, 3lbs below average
- Carries lowest weight in field
- Absent 318 days (longest in field)
- Market favourite (2.63)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The market favourite despite being the lowest-rated horse in the field and absent for 318 days — the longest lay-off of any runner here by a considerable margin. Its last three runs all came at Kempton and resulted in 12th, 8th and 10th, which makes the confidence the market is showing something of a puzzle. The trainer Luke Morris combination wins roughly 1 in 6 races together, but there is a lot to take on trust with a horse returning from nearly a year off with no wins from four career races.
- Lowest rated, 3lbs below average
- Carries lowest weight in field
- Absent 318 days (longest in field)
- Market favourite (2.63)
Seven races without a win, and recent form figures of 7th, 5th and 9th don't paint an encouraging picture — though a second-place finish earlier in the season shows there is some ability buried in there. Cieren Fallon rides for the first time today, so there's no established partnership to lean on. Rated just 4lbs below the top-rated Ziggy's Avenger, the gap on paper is tight, but the form profile feels less progressive.
- Mid-range in the market (5.1)
The second-shortest price in the market at 3.9, John Harrison arrives on the back of a third-place finish at Salisbury 18 days ago — beaten just 1.2 lengths — which is the most encouraging recent effort in the field among the winless runners. Five races in with no win but four top-four finishes suggests a horse that is consistently competitive without quite getting over the line. If any of the winless horses is going to cause an upset, this one makes the strongest case.
- 2nd in the market (3.9)
The top-rated horse in the field by 4lbs, Ziggy's Avenger is also the only runner here with a career win to its name, making it stand out clearly from five winless rivals. It broke through at Ripon just over a month ago after five attempts, suggesting a horse that is figuring things out at exactly the right time. Drawing stall 1 also works in its favour on a course where low draws have historically dominated at this distance.
- Top rated by 4lbs
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 6)
Three races in and still searching for a first win, Flag Of Eva has never raced on dry ground before — a completely unknown factor heading into today. Its best finish is a third place at Nottingham, though it was beaten 7.5 lengths that day, and two other efforts ended in distant sixths. With no evidence it handles these conditions and limited experience overall, this is one to treat cautiously.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (3 career races)
No wins and no placed finishes from four races, with a seventh last time out beaten over 11 lengths — Pipily's record is the most barren in this field. Like Flag Of Eva, it has never raced on dry ground before, adding another layer of uncertainty. The addition of cheekpieces today is a change in equipment designed to sharpen focus, though there is little in the form to suggest a dramatic turnaround is coming.
- Never raced on dry ground
Carries the lightest weight in the field, which gives it a physical advantage, and its best form over seven furlongs to a mile suggests the trip is right. However, it has never won on dry ground in five attempts, and three consecutive below-par finishes before today make this a horse that needs to rediscover something it showed earlier in its career.
- Carries lowest weight in field
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?Carries the lightest weight in the field, which gives it a physical advantage, and its best form over seven furlongs to a mile suggests the trip is right. However, it has never won on dry ground in five attempts, and three consecutive below-par finishes before today make this a horse that needs to rediscover something it showed earlier in its career.
- Carries lowest weight in field
The market favourite and the best career win rate in the field — winning roughly 1 in 5 races — with a recent win at Goodwood just six weeks ago keeping it in form. The catch is a clean record of zero wins from seven attempts on dry or fast ground, which is exactly what it faces today.
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 5)
- Market favourite (4.5)
The only horse in the field to have won here at Newmarket, which is a meaningful edge in a tight race — the editorial verdict makes it the narrow selection on ratings. However, it has raced 31 times for just 2 wins, and its record on normal or soft ground is a blank across 16 attempts, so it needs today's dry conditions to be closer to fast than standard.
- Only course winner (1 from 11 here)
Top-rated in the field by 5lbs, which is a clear advantage on paper, but it has never won at Newmarket in six attempts and has no wins on dry ground across seven tries — a significant red flag for today. That said, at just three years old it is the youngest runner here, and younger horses can improve quickly enough to make ratings look stale.
- Top rated by 5lbs
Sits in the highest draw in the field at stall 7, and at Newmarket over a mile that is a genuine disadvantage — low draws win here at twice the rate of high ones. Its best form has come on softer ground, and like most of this field it has no wins on the dry conditions it meets today.
- Best record on this ground (1 from 6)
The longest absence in the field — 106 days off the track — is a real concern, and its last three runs all ended in double-figure finishes. This horse has a remarkable record at Newcastle (winning 1 in 3 there), but today is Newmarket, and it has never won on the dry ground it faces here.
- Absent 106 days (longest in field)
Three consecutive top-three finishes and the best record in the field at this trip of one mile — winning 3 from 8 races at the distance — make this one of the more interesting runners despite carrying the lowest rating. The problem is stark though: zero wins from four attempts on dry ground, and today's conditions look firmly against it.
- Lowest rated, 3lbs below average
- Best record at this trip (3 from 8)
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
The editorial selection, and the one stat that stands out for him is that he has won over this exact course and distance — making him the only horse in the field who can say that. However, his last three runs make for uncomfortable reading: beaten 15 lengths at Newmarket most recently, and he has not won on standard ground in nine attempts, which is worth weighing carefully against the course form.
- Has won over this course and distance
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The editorial selection, and the one stat that stands out for him is that he has won over this exact course and distance — making him the only horse in the field who can say that. However, his last three runs make for uncomfortable reading: beaten 15 lengths at Newmarket most recently, and he has not won on standard ground in nine attempts, which is worth weighing carefully against the course form.
- Has won over this course and distance
The market favourite and easy to see why — he won here at Doncaster just 15 days ago and was second here the time before that, giving him more recent course form than anyone else in the field. His record on dry ground reads one win from three, the best in the field, and three consecutive top-four finishes at this very track make him the most obvious danger to the selection.
- Best record on this ground (1 from 3)
- Market favourite (3.5)
Sits at the top of the ratings alongside Wyle Cop, which makes the drift from a very short opening price to 5.5 hard to ignore. Won last time out at Southwell but has never won on dry ground in seven attempts, and today's fast conditions are exactly what she has repeatedly failed to handle.
- Mid-range in the market (5.5)
By far the most experienced horse in the field with 53 races, but also the lowest rated — nine pounds below the field average — and has not won on dry ground in any of his 21 attempts on anything other than slow or muddy conditions. Hasn't raced in 70 days and goes into today without a win at Nottingham or Southwell despite repeated attempts, making this a very tough ask at 19.0.
- Lowest rated, 9lbs below average
- Carries lowest weight in field
- Most experienced (53 runs, field avg 25)
The outsider of the field at 7.0, and with just one win from 12 races his record does not shout confidence. That said, he is fresh off a third-place finish 32 days ago and runs in blinkers, and this jockey-trainer pairing is new — neither a red flag nor a green light, just an unknown.
- Outsider at 7.0
Quietly the most consistent horse in the field on paper — three straight top-three finishes and the best career win rate here, winning roughly 1 in every 7 races. The concern is that all three of those recent placed efforts have ended in second or third without converting, and she has never won on dry ground in three attempts, which today's conditions do not help.
- Best record at this trip (4 from 21)
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 7)
The clear market favourite despite having only one race under his belt — a second-place finish at Kempton 19 days ago, beaten by just a length. That narrow defeat suggests he is close to winning, but today brings a new challenge: he has never raced on dry ground, and this will be a faster, firmer surface than he has encountered before. He is the one everyone is watching, but that unanswered ground question is real.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
- Market favourite (2.0)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The clear market favourite despite having only one race under his belt — a second-place finish at Kempton 19 days ago, beaten by just a length. That narrow defeat suggests he is close to winning, but today brings a new challenge: he has never raced on dry ground, and this will be a faster, firmer surface than he has encountered before. He is the one everyone is watching, but that unanswered ground question is real.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
- Market favourite (2.0)
The best-credentialled of the horses that have actually raced — he finished third at Ascot just eight days ago, which is a tougher track than Doncaster and a respectable result for a young horse. He has raced twice and is already showing improvement, moving from sixth to third, which suggests he is learning fast. At odds of 5.5, he represents the most experienced option among the market's leading contenders.
- Lightly raced (2 career races)
One race in, one sixth-place finish — beaten nearly nine lengths at Kempton — which gives us very little to work with. Like the favourite, he has never raced on dry ground, so today's conditions are uncharted territory. Trainer Ralph Beckett's jockey partnership here has a decent record together, but the horse simply hasn't shown enough yet to make a case.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
A complete unknown stepping onto a racecourse for the first time, so there is no form to judge — only breeding. His father, Invincible Spirit, is one of Europe's most celebrated speed sires with a string of top-level winners to his name, which at least hints at natural ability. That said, his odds have drifted sharply from what looked like a strong early price, which is worth noting.
- Racecourse debut
Making his debut today with no form to speak of, but the breeding is eye-catching — his father Blue Point was one of the fastest horses in Europe and has already shown he can produce quick offspring. Trainer William Haggas is one of the sharpest in the business, and his jockey partnership here wins roughly 1 in 5 races together, which is a solid record. Stall 3 also puts him in the favoured low-draw group at this course.
- Racecourse debut
Another first-timer with nothing on the clock — no wins, no form, no track record to lean on. The draw in stall 2 is genuinely useful here, as low draws at Doncaster over this distance have a strong historical edge over mid and high draws. That advantage is about the only concrete thing working in this horse's favour right now.
- Racecourse debut
Two races in and still to show anything encouraging — a seventh and a fifth with no places to speak of. Both of those runs came on different ground conditions from today, so this will be his first time on a dry surface, and we simply don't know how he'll handle it. The high draw in stall 10 adds another obstacle, sitting in a zone where horses win far less often at this course.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (2 career races)
A debut runner with no form to assess, but his father Bated Breath is known for producing sharp, early-developing youngsters who often show up well in their first season. Stall 4 puts him in the low-draw group that has the strongest record at this course and distance, which is a small but genuine plus. At 41s, the market has no great expectations, but he is not without interest on pedigree alone.
- Racecourse debut
Two races and two mid-field finishes — fifth and seventh — without threatening the places at all. The best thing going for him is stall 1, the lowest possible draw, which sits right in the sweet spot of Doncaster's historical bias at this distance. At odds of 67, the market is not impressed with his form, but the draw is at least something concrete.
- Lightly raced (2 career races)
The only horse in the field carrying the lightest weight, which can sometimes be an advantage, but her one race to date — a seventh at Thirsk beaten over 12 lengths — offers nothing to build on. At 101s, she is the longest shot in the race and the market is telling a clear story. Honest assessment: there is simply no evidence here to suggest she can compete with the stronger options.
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
The only horse in the field who has won at Doncaster over this exact course and distance, and he's won here twice from nine attempts — a record nobody else can match today. He was third here just six weeks ago, so he arrives fresh and in form, drawn in stall 4 which sits in the most favourable part of the track. Our selection for the race, and the standout data clearly supports why.
- Only course winner (2 from 9 here)
- Has won over this course and distance
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The only horse in the field who has won at Doncaster over this exact course and distance, and he's won here twice from nine attempts — a record nobody else can match today. He was third here just six weeks ago, so he arrives fresh and in form, drawn in stall 4 which sits in the most favourable part of the track. Our selection for the race, and the standout data clearly supports why.
- Only course winner (2 from 9 here)
- Has won over this course and distance
The best career win rate in the field — roughly 1 in 3 races — and the top official rating among the nine runners, yet he hasn't won on dry ground in seven attempts, which is a real concern given today's conditions. He's also returning from a year off, and his last three runs have all produced finishes in the bottom half of the field. The market has cooled dramatically from early prices, which tells its own story.
- Absent 357 days (longest in field)
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
- Market favourite (3.5)
The best record over 7 furlongs of any runner here — 3 wins from 9 races at this distance — which matters in a race where the trip suits. He's been placing regularly without winning lately, and the low draw in stall 2 is an advantage at this course. The jockey-trainer partnership has only clicked once from 13 races together, which is a note of caution.
- Best record at this trip (3 from 9)
By far the most experienced horse in the field with 42 career races — more than double the field average of 19 — and he's finished in the top three on more than half those occasions, showing he's a tough and consistent competitor. He ran at Doncaster just 28 days ago and finished seventh, beaten only two lengths, which suggests this track suits him. However, dry ground has never been his friend — zero wins from nine races on it — and that's what he faces today.
- Most experienced (42 runs, field avg 19)
She ran a cracker at Thirsk last month, finishing second by a length, but then finished a distant 22nd at Ascot three weeks ago — a result that's hard to explain and easy to worry about. Her record on dry ground reads zero wins from six races, which is a significant red flag given today's conditions. With the lowest draw in her section of the track and a poor record on this type of galloping course, the data doesn't make a compelling case.
- Placed in 2 of last 3 races
Carrying the lowest weight in the field and officially rated 4lbs below the field average, he's the outsider on ratings but arrives with a third-place finish at Chester three weeks ago to his name. Stall 1 gives him the best draw at this course according to the data, which is a genuine advantage in a 9-runner field. Zero wins from four races on dry ground is a concern, but the light weight and draw make him worth a second look as a place prospect.
- Lowest rated, 4lbs below average
- Carries lowest weight in field
- Best record on this ground (1 from 3)
Officially rated just a pound behind Yorkshire and towards the top of this field, yet the market has pushed him out to 16/1, suggesting punters have little faith after three poor runs last autumn. He's been off the track for roughly nine months, and his last run here ended in a 13th-place finish. Interestingly, dry ground is where he's done his best work — 3 wins from 7 races on it — so the conditions at least play to his strengths.
- Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
The least experienced horse in the field with just 9 races, and the only 3-year-old taking on older rivals at a rating that keeps him in the mix on paper. Two wins from his first three races looked bright, but his last six runs have brought nothing better than sixth place, and he hasn't placed since early in his career. He's relatively unexposed compared to these rivals, but the recent form offers little encouragement.
- Relatively inexperienced (9 career races)
At 21/1, he's the longest shot in the field, and three consecutive poor runs — including a 13th at York — make it hard to argue with that assessment. His best work has come over shorter distances and his record on left-handed galloping tracks like Doncaster reads zero wins from five races. The dry ground suits him on past evidence, but too much else points the wrong way.
- Outsider at 21.0
Two wins from six races at Doncaster makes this horse a genuine course specialist — no other runner in today's field can match that record here. A close third just 16 days ago at Yarmouth shows it's in decent nick right now, and it has already won over this exact course and distance. The one nagging issue is a record of zero wins from seven attempts on good ground, which is today's surface — that's the same problem that undermines several rivals here.
- Course specialist (2 wins from 6 here)
- Has won over this course and distance
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?Two wins from six races at Doncaster makes this horse a genuine course specialist — no other runner in today's field can match that record here. A close third just 16 days ago at Yarmouth shows it's in decent nick right now, and it has already won over this exact course and distance. The one nagging issue is a record of zero wins from seven attempts on good ground, which is today's surface — that's the same problem that undermines several rivals here.
- Course specialist (2 wins from 6 here)
- Has won over this course and distance
The most experienced horse in the field by a distance — 71 races compared to a field average of 27 — and crucially the only runner here who has already won over this exact course and distance. He wins roughly 1 in every 6 races across his career, the best win rate in this field, and a close second at Bath just five weeks ago shows he remains competitive. The worry is that he has never won on good ground in nine attempts, and that's what he faces today.
- Has won over this course and distance
- Best record on this ground (3 from 15)
- Most experienced (71 runs, field avg 27)
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 6)
The selection, and it's not hard to see why — three finishes inside the top three on the bounce shows a horse in the form of its life right now. Rated 64, he sits narrowly ahead of the tied-top-rated pair and is heading in the right direction. The one concern is that his best ground record is on good conditions specifically, and if this dry surface is faster than ideal, his numbers fall away sharply.
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
Three second-place finishes on the bounce is an eye-catching sequence, and carrying the lowest weight in the field gives it a built-in advantage on paper. It also has the best record in the field at this seven-furlong trip — two wins from ten races at this distance. The catch is that every single win of its career has come at Brighton, a very different track to Doncaster, so it has everything to prove on a new course.
- Carries lowest weight in field
- Best record at this trip (2 from 10)
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
Tied top-rated alongside Thapa VC on official figures, but the underlying record makes it hard to get excited — just one win from 25 career races, and none on good ground in seven attempts. He has finished fourth twice at Doncaster recently, so he's familiar with the track and not disgracing himself, but a jockey-trainer combination that has produced just one win from 35 races together is another reason for caution.
- 2nd highest rated (OR 63)
Thirteen races into its career and still waiting for a first win — the standout fact for this horse is simply that the winning post has eluded it entirely so far. A second-place finish at Pontefract 19 days ago shows it's competitive enough, and it carries less weight than most rivals here. But with a below-average official rating and no wins to its name, it needs to find something it hasn't managed yet.
- Winless from 13 career races
The most significant flag here is straightforward: this horse hasn't raced in 173 days, the longest absence of any runner in the field. It has never won in 10 career races, and its last three outings produced finishes of 9th, 12th, and 9th. Coming back from nearly six months off with that form profile makes this a very difficult horse to back.
- Absent 173 days (longest in field)
One genuinely unusual fact sets this horse apart from everything else in the field: it has never raced on dry ground, making today's conditions completely unknown territory. Five races in, still winless, and now asked to handle a surface it has no experience of — that's a lot of questions to answer at once. The trainer-jockey partnership has a solid record together across hundreds of races, but this horse needs to prove it can handle the conditions first.
- Never raced on dry ground
The editorial selection and lowest-rated horse in the field by five pounds, Boilermaker carries the lightest weight today — a genuine advantage in a race like this. What makes this horse interesting is the clear improvement in recent form: after three poor efforts to start the season, the last three runs have read 4th, 2nd, 3rd, suggesting a horse that is knocking on the door and improving race by race.
- Lowest rated, 5lbs below average
- Carries lowest weight in field
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The editorial selection and lowest-rated horse in the field by five pounds, Boilermaker carries the lightest weight today — a genuine advantage in a race like this. What makes this horse interesting is the clear improvement in recent form: after three poor efforts to start the season, the last three runs have read 4th, 2nd, 3rd, suggesting a horse that is knocking on the door and improving race by race.
- Lowest rated, 5lbs below average
- Carries lowest weight in field
The market favourite at 2.48 and the best win rate in the field at one in five, Willow Wood arrives on the back of a win 44 days ago — the only horse in this field to have won most recently. The big unknown is that she has never raced on dry ground before, which makes her odds-on-ish price a touch risky given that open question.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 5)
- Market favourite (2.48)
Zero wins from six races, but Rossa Raheen was beaten just a length and a half at Newbury only 16 days ago — the freshest legs in this field and a horse that arguably ran better than its record suggests. That near-miss at Newbury gives this horse a live chance at a realistic price of 5.4, and this is the most recently race-fit runner here.
- Mid-range in the market (5.4)
Winless in six career races, and here's the key issue: Tai Hang Pegasus has never raced on dry ground before, making today a step into the unknown. Recent form shows a sixth at Lingfield followed by two poor efforts abroad at Meydan, so there's little momentum to build on heading into this.
- Never raced on dry ground
The highest-rated horse in the field by four pounds, Royal Poetry has finished in the top two in four of six career races — a level of consistency that stands out in this company. That said, a shocking drift in the market from a very short price to 17/1 is a major red flag and hard to ignore. If the market knows something, this chance may be shorter on paper than it looks in practice.
- One of the more successful in the field (1 career wins)
The least experienced horse in the field with just four career races, and none of those have produced a win or even a placing — every finish has been well down the field. Today's jockey is riding this horse for the very first time, which adds another layer of uncertainty, and it's hard to make a case for That Darn Cantor on current evidence.
- Relatively inexperienced (4 career races)
Woodleigh is one of the few course winners in this field, having won right here at Doncaster just 34 days ago, and he backed that up with a win at Redcar the month before — two on the bounce before a fifth at Newcastle last time. The concern is that both of his wins appear to have come in wet or soft conditions, and his record on dry ground is a blank: no wins from 17 attempts on fast or normal ground. Today's dry surface could be working directly against his strengths.
- One of few course winners (1 wins here)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?Woodleigh is one of the few course winners in this field, having won right here at Doncaster just 34 days ago, and he backed that up with a win at Redcar the month before — two on the bounce before a fifth at Newcastle last time. The concern is that both of his wins appear to have come in wet or soft conditions, and his record on dry ground is a blank: no wins from 17 attempts on fast or normal ground. Today's dry surface could be working directly against his strengths.
- One of few course winners (1 wins here)
The market favourite and our top pick, Palmarian finally broke through for a first career win at Leicester just 14 days ago — a breakthrough that suggests he may be improving at just the right time. In 13 races he has won just once, so the big drift in odds (from as short as 1.1 to the current 5.0) is worth noting, as is a poor record on dry ground with no wins from four previous attempts at these conditions. He races out of a low-bias draw at stall 11, which adds another small question mark, but the editorial verdict backs his improving profile over the rest of the field.
- Market favourite (5.0)
Electric Lightning holds the standout stat of having won over this exact course and distance — the only horse in the field with that specific credential — and has finished second just 15 days ago at Beverley, suggesting he is in good current form. His record on dry ground is solid too, with a win from three attempts on those conditions, making him well-suited to today's surface. On the face of it, a course-and-distance winner in form looks an attractive proposition at 7.0.
- Has won over this course and distance
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
Princess Niyla is the most experienced horse in the first tier of the market with 39 career races, and she does have a solid record on dry ground — two wins from 12 attempts at those conditions. The problem is she has been placed but not won in any of her last six races, and her record on left-handed, galloping tracks like Doncaster reads zero wins from 20 attempts, which is a striking statistic at the venue. She ran here just nine days ago and finished fifth, so fitness is not in doubt, but the course record is hard to ignore.
- Among the more experienced (39 career races)
The most experienced horse in the entire field by some distance — 48 races to the field average of 25 — Relevant Range is a seven-year-old who knows its job but rarely wins it, with four victories from nearly five dozen outings. The best news for today is that his three career wins have all come on artificial surfaces rather than turf, and his recent form (sixth, second, sixth) is patchy. Draw one is the lowest available, which is the best box at Doncaster over this trip, but the overall profile is of a horse that places rather than wins.
- Most experienced (48 runs, field avg 25)
Ribston Pippin has the best career win rate in the field — winning roughly 1 in every 7 races — and crucially has the strongest record at today's trip of one mile, with two wins from five attempts at this distance. However, he has not raced for 59 days and his most recent run was a distant ninth, so he arrives needing a significant bounce back. Draw three is a fair position and the weight is light, but the return from a break after poor form needs to be proven.
- Best record at this trip (2 from 5)
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 7)
Penny Ghent arrives here in the best form of her life — three finishes in the top three in a row, including back-to-back wins at Beverley and Ripon — which is remarkable for a horse that had won just twice in her first 26 races. However, her record on dry ground is a genuine concern: she has never won on anything other than fast, dry ground, and her figures on normal or soft conditions are poor. The jockey-trainer partnership here has yet to win together in nine attempts, which is a small but notable flag.
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
Clasina looked like a serious contender on the strength of a win and two placed efforts, but her most recent run — a distant 15th at Newmarket — raises real questions about whether that form was as solid as it appeared. She has never won on dry ground in eight attempts, which is a significant drawback in today's conditions. Rated level with several rivals at the top of the field, she needs to prove the Newmarket flop was a blip rather than a sign.
- Placed in 2 of last 3 races
Despite sitting top of the ratings, Give Me The Night is yet to win from 10 career races — the only horse in the field yet to break its duck — which makes that top-rated status feel somewhat hollow. He meets a new jockey today in a partnership that has never raced together before, and recent form of fifth, tenth, and eighth offers little encouragement. He cannot be entirely dismissed given the official figures, but his entire profile screams potential rather than performance.
- Winless from 10 career races
Oscar's Sister is the clear outsider at 17.0 and has managed just one win in 23 career races, with nothing to show from five previous visits to this track. She is also rated 9 points below the top of the field — the second-lowest rating in the race — and recent runs of eighth, fourth, and eighth do not suggest a turnaround is imminent. The data does not offer much to build a case on here.
- Outsider at 17.0
First Encounter carries the lowest weight and the lowest rating in the field — 9lbs below the average — which means the handicapper has given him every chance on paper. The most compelling stat in his favour is the best record on today's dry ground of any runner, with two wins from seven attempts at those conditions, and he races from the second-lowest draw. He has been competitive across 38 career races without threatening the front rank recently, but the weight and ground combination give him a live chance as a dark horse.
- Lowest rated, 9lbs below average
- Carries lowest weight in field
- Best record on this ground (2 from 7)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The market favourite at 2.2 and the only horse in this field to have won at Nottingham — doing so just 23 days ago over today's course and distance, which is about as relevant as recent form gets. It followed that up with a near-miss second at Musselburgh, beaten a whisker, so it arrives in the best current form of any runner here. Rated 3lbs below the field average, it is carrying less weight than its rivals and the jockey-trainer combination has a solid shared record of eight wins from 66 races together.
- Lowest rated, 3lbs below average
- Only course winner (1 from 3 here)
- Market favourite (2.2)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The market favourite at 2.2 and the only horse in this field to have won at Nottingham — doing so just 23 days ago over today's course and distance, which is about as relevant as recent form gets. It followed that up with a near-miss second at Musselburgh, beaten a whisker, so it arrives in the best current form of any runner here. Rated 3lbs below the field average, it is carrying less weight than its rivals and the jockey-trainer combination has a solid shared record of eight wins from 66 races together.
- Lowest rated, 3lbs below average
- Only course winner (1 from 3 here)
- Market favourite (2.2)
The top-rated horse in this field by 5lbs, but that rating advantage comes with a catch: this horse has never won on dry ground in eight attempts, and today's fast conditions are a genuine concern. A heavy defeat at York last time out (beaten over 21 lengths) adds to the worry, and though it ran well at this course 45 days ago, it was only third. The odds drifting dramatically from near-even money tells its own story about confidence in the camp.
- Top rated by 5lbs
- Best record at this trip (1 from 3)
Second in the betting at 5.0, this experienced six-year-old has finished in the top three in roughly half of its 30 career races, so it knows how to be competitive. It has a solid record on today's dry ground — one win from five attempts at 20% — and third place at Pontefract last time out shows it is in reasonable nick. The new jockey partnership is untested, which adds a small unknown.
- 2nd in the market (5.0)
Carries the lightest weight in the field, which is always an advantage worth noting in a race like this. It ran second at this exact course 91 days ago and won at Kempton shortly after, so it has live claims — but a nine-place finish at Doncaster last time out on similar dry ground raises doubts, and it has never won on fast conditions in four attempts. Coming back after a 34-day break adds another question mark.
- Carries lowest weight in field
The most experienced horse in the field with 48 career races, and crucially the one with the best record on today's fast ground — four wins from 11 runs at 36%, comfortably the strongest dry-ground record here. The concern is a run of poor form since winning at Pontefract 46 days ago, with two well-beaten finishes since. The jockey-trainer combination has yet to win together in five tries, which is another flag.
- Best record on this ground (4 from 11)
Our selection and the editorial pick, despite odds that have drifted a long way out from opening price. The case for this horse rests on a progressive profile at today's mile trip, where its best win rate sits — but back-to-back defeats at Carlisle and Ripon, including a ninth-place finish, mean it needs to bounce back sharply. It has never won on dry ground in four attempts, which is a risk worth naming honestly.
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 6)
Finished seventh, beaten over 10 lengths on its only run — and that race came right here at Nottingham 48 days ago, so at least the track is familiar. Like Parkers Light and Fully Stocked, it has never raced on dry ground before, adding another unknown. Needs a dramatic improvement on that debut performance to feature.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?Finished seventh, beaten over 10 lengths on its only run — and that race came right here at Nottingham 48 days ago, so at least the track is familiar. Like Parkers Light and Fully Stocked, it has never raced on dry ground before, adding another unknown. Needs a dramatic improvement on that debut performance to feature.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
The market favourite at 1.83, and the only horse in this field with a placing on its record — a runner-up finish 19 days ago at Kempton gives it more to build on than most of its rivals here. Worth flagging that all its experience came on a different surface, so today's dry conditions at Nottingham are uncharted territory. Still, second place in your only race is the best starting point in this field, and the market clearly agrees.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
- Market favourite (1.83)
The only horse in this field making its racecourse debut — no form to judge, but it arrived in the market as a heavy favourite before drifting sharply to 4.5, which is a significant shift worth noting. By Showcasing, a sire known for producing fast, precocious youngsters who can hit the ground running over sprint distances like this. Plenty of unknown quantities here, but the breeding points in the right direction for a 6-furlong race on dry ground.
- Racecourse debut
Three races in and still searching for a top-three finish, with a fourth and two fifths to its name — the most experienced horse in this field but arguably the one whose form reads least encouragingly. Its best effort was that fourth-place finish over 100 days ago, and it has gone backwards since, most recently beaten nearly 7 lengths at Bath. Needs to find a meaningful step forward to get involved here.
- Lightly raced (3 career races)
Finished eighth on its only race 17 days ago at Bath, which is the most modest piece of form in this field, and today's dry ground is also new to it. The jockey-trainer partnership has managed just 1 win from 34 races together, which doesn't inspire confidence. At 21.0, the market has this firmly at the back of the queue, and the form book backs that up.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Lightly raced (1 career races)
The market favourite, and she arrives here on the back of back-to-back wins at Lingfield and Catterick — the most recent winning streak of any horse in this field. The concern is that both those wins came on all-weather surfaces, and she has never won on turf in four attempts; today is grass. Wearing cheekpieces and carrying a joint-low weight, she's clearly in form, but the surface switch is a real test.
- Market favourite (4.33)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The market favourite, and she arrives here on the back of back-to-back wins at Lingfield and Catterick — the most recent winning streak of any horse in this field. The concern is that both those wins came on all-weather surfaces, and she has never won on turf in four attempts; today is grass. Wearing cheekpieces and carrying a joint-low weight, she's clearly in form, but the surface switch is a real test.
- Market favourite (4.33)
The biggest unknown in the field — she hasn't raced in 189 days, the longest absence by far, and has never once run on today's fast, dry ground. She does boast the best career win rate here (1 in 5), but that single win came on an all-weather surface at Southwell, so the conditions today are a genuine question mark. If she handles the ground, she's interesting; if she doesn't, that long break looks an even bigger risk.
- Never raced on dry ground
- Best record at this trip (1 from 3)
- Absent 189 days (longest in field)
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 5)
The oldest horse in this field at four, Marajito has her best record on today's fast, dry ground — winning 1 from 4 on similar conditions, better than her overall 1-in-9 average. She won at Ripon seven weeks ago but has since finished fifth and sixth, so the form has dipped at the worst time. A mid-field draw in stall five suits, but she needs to find more than her recent outings suggest she has.
- Best record on this ground (1 from 4)
The editorial selection, and it's easy to see why — she's run second and third in her last two races and looks to be knocking on the door. Second-highest rated in the field and drawn widest of all in stall seven, which sits in the most favoured mid-range draw bracket at this course. Her jockey and trainer have only teamed up once before without a win, but the horse's form profile is the most progressive of any runner here.
- 2nd highest rated (OR 69)
By far the most experienced horse in this field with 59 races — the average for her rivals is around 17 — yet she's also the lowest rated, a full 13lbs below the field average. She carries the lightest weight as a result, but that advantage hasn't helped before: she has never won at this level of competition in 24 attempts. Hard to make a case for her at the age of seven with that record staring you in the face.
- Lowest rated, 12lbs below average
- Carries lowest weight in field
- Most experienced (59 runs, field avg 17)
She won on fast, dry ground at Bath — the same conditions she faces today — giving her the joint-best record in the field on this type of surface. But she's followed that win with two poor efforts, beaten nearly 10 lengths at Goodwood and over 4 at Chepstow, which makes her current form hard to trust. It's also the first time her jockey and trainer have worked together, which adds another unknown.
- Mid-range in the market (7.5)
Top-rated by the editorial verdict but drawn in stall one — a draw that historically produces just 12% of winners at this course and trip, the same as the low draws overall. She's wearing a visor and hasn't won in her last six races, finishing sixth most recently at Pontefract. She has a decent record on good ground but is stepping back in form when the race needs her at her best.
- One of the more successful in the field (2 career wins)
The market favourite and top-rated horse in the field on our figures at 75, drawn in stall 1 which is the best place to be at Nottingham over this trip. Seven races without a win, but a recent second at Newbury — beaten just over a length — shows the form is ticking upward at the right time. The one to beat according to the ratings, and the draw adds another reason to be positive.
- Market favourite (2.25)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?The market favourite and top-rated horse in the field on our figures at 75, drawn in stall 1 which is the best place to be at Nottingham over this trip. Seven races without a win, but a recent second at Newbury — beaten just over a length — shows the form is ticking upward at the right time. The one to beat according to the ratings, and the draw adds another reason to be positive.
- Market favourite (2.25)
By far the most battle-hardened horse in this small field with 15 races to its name — more than double the field average — and wins roughly 1 in 5, the best career win rate here. The big concern is that it has never won on dry ground like today's, blanking in all five attempts, despite a strong record when the ground is normal. The blinkers are on to sharpen focus, but that ground stat is hard to ignore.
- Most experienced (15 runs, field avg 7)
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 5)
Still looking for a first win from four races, but has never raced on dry ground like today's conditions — that's a genuine unknown. Drifted heavily in the market from an opening price of 1.1 to 5.5, which suggests few are confident it handles the step up to these conditions. Firmly in the mix for a place, but the ground question makes this a tricky one to trust.
- Never raced on dry ground
Carries the lowest weight in the field, which is an advantage in a race like this, and has the best win rate of any horse here — winning 1 in every 4 races from just four outings. However, like Poor Relation, she has never raced on today's dry ground, and this jockey-trainer pairing is working together for the first time. The third at Nottingham last month at least shows she handles this track.
- Carries lowest weight in field
- Never raced on dry ground
Thursday Girl is the top-rated horse in this field and has finished second in three races in a row, including a very tight near-miss just 15 days ago at Sandown. She's stepping up two class levels today and has never raced on dry ground, both of which are unknowns worth noting. She keeps finishing just behind the winner, and if those conditions suit her, today could finally be her turn.
- Top rated by 3lbs
- Steps up 2 classes
- Never raced on dry ground
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?Thursday Girl is the top-rated horse in this field and has finished second in three races in a row, including a very tight near-miss just 15 days ago at Sandown. She's stepping up two class levels today and has never raced on dry ground, both of which are unknowns worth noting. She keeps finishing just behind the winner, and if those conditions suit her, today could finally be her turn.
- Top rated by 3lbs
- Steps up 2 classes
- Never raced on dry ground
- 3 straight top-3 finishes
Like stablemate Effetto, Stellar has never raced before — but the key difference is her pedigree: she's by Sea The Stars, one of the most respected stallions in modern racing. Her jockey Jack Mitchell has won with this trainer roughly 1 in 5 times they've paired up, which is a solid record. The market makes her favourite of the two Varian debutants, and that vote of confidence from the betting ring matters.
- Racecourse debut
Four races and not a single top-three finish — Moonlit Surf has been towards the back of the field every time she's run. She's stepping up two class levels today, which makes things harder, and she's never raced on dry ground like today's conditions. The market has drifted sharply away from her, and it's hard to find a reason to argue with that.
- Steps up 2 classes
- Never raced on dry ground
A complete unknown — this is Effetto's first ever race, so there's no form to judge her on. She's trained by Roger Varian, who also saddles the favourite Stellar today, which suggests this may be more of a learning run. Her odds drifting sharply from near-evens to 10/1 is a signal that the market isn't expecting a big performance first time out.
- Racecourse debut
Only two races under her belt, but Sedeirah's most recent run — a second place at Pontefract just 19 days ago — showed real improvement after a poor debut. The jockey hasn't ridden for this trainer before, which adds a small note of uncertainty. At odds of 19/1 she's well down the market, but she's at least heading in the right direction.
- Lightly raced (2 career races)
Our top pick for this race, rated five pounds clear of most rivals on our figures — yet she has never actually won in six career races, which is the uncomfortable truth here. Her odds have drifted sharply from where she opened, suggesting punters have reservations, and a jockey-trainer combination that has yet to click in four attempts together does nothing to ease those concerns. She arrives fresh enough after 16 days off, but needs to find a first win soon or questions will mount.
- Market favourite (2.8)
Runners
Sorted by TrackLab Score (best chance first)?Our top pick for this race, rated five pounds clear of most rivals on our figures — yet she has never actually won in six career races, which is the uncomfortable truth here. Her odds have drifted sharply from where she opened, suggesting punters have reservations, and a jockey-trainer combination that has yet to click in four attempts together does nothing to ease those concerns. She arrives fresh enough after 16 days off, but needs to find a first win soon or questions will mount.
- Market favourite (2.8)
The best career win rate in this field — winning roughly one in every eight races — and arrives in decent nick after finishing second and third in his last two outings. The big concern is his record on dry ground like today: zero wins from seven attempts on this type of surface, which is a significant red flag given conditions here. He and Ablon are rated level on our figures, making him the most obvious danger to the favourite if he can overcome that ground issue.
- Best career win rate in field (1 in 8)
The one horse in this field who has already won here at Nottingham — and he did it just 14 days ago, making him the most course-relevant runner by some distance. That kind of recent course form is hard to dismiss, and dry conditions match his best efforts on similar ground. The catch is a new jockey who has never ridden him before, which always introduces a small unknown.
- Only course winner (1 from 1 here)
Carries the lightest weight in the field, which gives a small practical advantage, but the record is thin: no wins from just four career races. A narrow second place at Lingfield three weeks ago shows he can get competitive, though he also finished tenth here at Nottingham just two months ago on this same course. There is not enough data to judge him fully, and with only four races to his name, he remains a largely unknown quantity.
- Carries lowest weight in field
The most experienced horse in this field with 31 career races, and crucially the only one who has actually won at this distance — though that record of one win from 13 attempts at the trip is a reminder that it does not come easily. His last run was a distant ninth at Leicester 40 days ago, which is hard to ignore, but his best form has come on dry ground and today's conditions suit. A huge drift in the market tells you the betting public is not convinced.
- Only winner at this distance
- Best record on this ground (1 from 5)
- Best record at this trip (1 from 13)
Back on the track after just four days, which stands out immediately — and his last run ended 71 lengths behind the winner, so the quick return raises questions rather than confidence. He has never won on dry ground in nine career attempts on this type of surface, making today's conditions a further obstacle. Despite a reasonable overall win rate of roughly one in eight, the evidence here points firmly against him.
- Runs again after just 4 days