The market favourite at 4.5, and the form makes it easy to see why — three finishes in the top three on the bounce, including back-to-back wins at Uttoxeter most recently. The youngest and least experienced of the leading contenders with just 10 career races, but right now this horse is running like one peaking at exactly the right moment.
L. Noreci(7)
·
J. Moffatt
· 7yo
· 12st 0lb
· OR 125
HeadgearForm
15
Wearing hoodWon 1 of last 5Won here 1 timeLoves this ground (36% win rate)
TrackLab Insight
The top-rated horse in the field by 6 lbs, and the one with the best record on this normal ground — she has won 4 of her 11 races on similar conditions, a better conversion rate than any rival here. She also won at this very course last time out, just 56 days ago, which makes her the obvious benchmark. The big question is her odds drifting sharply from what they opened at, which hints at some behind-the-scenes uncertainty.
Best record on this ground (4 from 11)
Trainer Quotes
Nov 2023
"She's 2-2 for us over hurdles and is having a break as she wants better ground. She won well at Sedgefield and Wetherby and we'll get her ready for the mares' meeting at Cheltenham in April. She'll have a couple of options there, either a handicap hurdle or Listed novice hurdle. It's all about building a pedigree with her to go on as a broodmare. 30-11-23"
Wearing visorWon 0 of last 5Has won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
Third-highest rated in the field, and the jockey-trainer partnership has clicked in 8 of their 56 races together, which is a decent working relationship. However, his last run was a 6th-place finish at Sandown just 35 days ago, and he has never won on a left-handed course like Cartmel across 10 attempts — a red flag that's hard to ignore.
Placed in 2 of last 3 races
Trainer Quotes
Oct 2025
"I like this horse. He was rated 85 on the Flat and won nicely on his debut over hurdles at Uttoxeter before walking over at Ludlow. He runs in the 2m4f novice hurdle at Cheltenham on Friday and he should go well. 24-10-25"
M. Thomasina Eyston(7)
·
G. Bewley
· 8yo
· 10st 11lb
· OR 108
C&DForm
15
Won at this course & distanceWon 0 of last 5Won here 2 timesHas won on this groundWon at this distance 2 times
TrackLab Insight
The standout course specialist in the field — she has won 2 of just 4 races at Cartmel, a record no other runner can match, and has won over this exact course and distance before. Her overall record is modest, but strip it back to Cartmel specifically and she looks like a different horse. She finished 5th here 56 days ago, so the course form is live, even if that run was disappointing.
Course specialist (2 wins from 4 here)Has won over this course and distanceBest record at this trip (2 from 4)
Back-to-back wins in her last two races, and she has won 2 of 5 races on this kind of normal ground — the best ground record among the lower-weighted runners. The jockey has ridden 11 winners for this trainer from 74 races together, so there's a proper working relationship in place. She does step up in class here, but the form is hard to dismiss.
I. Ryder(5)
·
A. Keatley
· 4yo
· 11st 7lb
· OR 122
FreshnessForm
8.0
Quick turnaroundWon 1 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
Wins roughly 1 in 4 races — the joint-best career win rate in the field — and has a strong record at distances over 2 miles. The worry is that this horse ran just 7 days ago, the quickest turnaround in the field, and finished 7th that day; this is also the first time this jockey-trainer combination have worked together, which adds uncertainty.
Runs again after just 7 daysBest career win rate in field (1 in 4)
Wearing visorWon 0 of last 5Has won on this groundWon at this distance 2 times
TrackLab Insight
Finished second last time out at Newton Abbot, beaten just 1.5 lengths, which is a solid recent reference point after two very poor runs before that. He's rated 17 lbs below the top pick here, which means he's giving away a significant weight advantage on paper. The editorial flags him as a danger, but the figures suggest he'd need the favourites to underperform.
M. Heidi Palin(5)
·
S. England
· 8yo
· 11st 12lb
· OR 123
C&DFreshness
4.2
Won at this course & distanceFresh (168 days off)Won 3 of last 5Won here 1 timeHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
The only other horse in the field to have won over this course and distance, which counts for plenty at a tricky track like Cartmel. The concern is a 168-day absence — the longest of any runner here — and two poor efforts before that break, finishing 5th and 11th in stronger company. Has plenty to prove on fitness alone.
Has won over this course and distanceAbsent 168 days (longest in field)
Won 1 of last 5Raced here beforeHas won on this ground
TrackLab Insight
Came into this race off a win at Kelso 55 days ago, but pulled up here at Cartmel on his most recent start just 20 days ago — a sharp turnaround that raises obvious concerns. His best form is tied to Kelso, where he has won 3 times, and there's little evidence he transfers that form to different tracks. Carrying one of the lowest weights in the field helps, but his Cartmel record is not encouraging.
Won 0 of last 5Raced here beforeHas won on this groundWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
The oldest horse in the field at 10, carrying the lowest weight, and rated 18 lbs below the field average — the widest gap of any runner here. He has never won at Cartmel across 8 attempts, which is a damning stat for a horse with 44 career races of experience. Three consecutive placed finishes at Hexham show he's still running consistently, but this track and class look against him.
Lowest rated, 17lbs below averageCarries lowest weight in field
M. Venetia Thompson(7)
·
P. Neville
· 6yo
· 11st 1lb
· OR 112
Form
0.7
Won 1 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
The least experienced horse in the field by some margin, with just 4 career races to his name, and the last two ended without completing the course — a fall at Hexham and a pulled-up at Sedgefield. This is also the first time this jockey and trainer have worked together. There is very little evidence to work with here, and what exists points to risk rather than reward.
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.