Newmarket
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National Stud "Confined" Handicap Stakes (For Horses With No More Than One Win)
Starts in
3h 36min
Turf track
All Runners — sorted by TrackLab Score
Good Value
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite despite being the lowest-rated horse in the field and absent for 318 days — the longest lay-off of any runner here by a considerable margin. Its last three runs all came at Kempton and resulted in 12th, 8th and 10th, which makes the confidence the market is showing something of a puzzle. The trainer Luke Morris combination wins roughly 1 in 6 races together, but there is a lot to take on trust with a horse returning from nearly a year off with no wins from four career races.
Lowest rated, 3lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Absent 318 days (longest in field)
Market favourite (2.63)
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TrackLab Insight
Seven races without a win, and recent form figures of 7th, 5th and 9th don't paint an encouraging picture — though a second-place finish earlier in the season shows there is some ability buried in there. Cieren Fallon rides for the first time today, so there's no established partnership to lean on. Rated just 4lbs below the top-rated Ziggy's Avenger, the gap on paper is tight, but the form profile feels less progressive.
Mid-range in the market (5.1)
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TrackLab Insight
The top-rated horse in the field by 4lbs, Ziggy's Avenger is also the only runner here with a career win to its name, making it stand out clearly from five winless rivals. It broke through at Ripon just over a month ago after five attempts, suggesting a horse that is figuring things out at exactly the right time. Drawing stall 1 also works in its favour on a course where low draws have historically dominated at this distance.
Top rated by 4lbs
Best career win rate in field (1 in 6)
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Good Value
TrackLab Insight
The second-shortest price in the market at 3.9, John Harrison arrives on the back of a third-place finish at Salisbury 18 days ago — beaten just 1.2 lengths — which is the most encouraging recent effort in the field among the winless runners. Five races in with no win but four top-four finishes suggests a horse that is consistently competitive without quite getting over the line. If any of the winless horses is going to cause an upset, this one makes the strongest case.
2nd in the market (3.9)
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TrackLab Insight
Three races in and still searching for a first win, Flag Of Eva has never raced on dry ground before — a completely unknown factor heading into today. Its best finish is a third place at Nottingham, though it was beaten 7.5 lengths that day, and two other efforts ended in distant sixths. With no evidence it handles these conditions and limited experience overall, this is one to treat cautiously.
Never raced on dry ground
Lightly raced (3 career races)
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TrackLab Insight
No wins and no placed finishes from four races, with a seventh last time out beaten over 11 lengths — Pipily's record is the most barren in this field. Like Flag Of Eva, it has never raced on dry ground before, adding another layer of uncertainty. The addition of cheekpieces today is a change in equipment designed to sharpen focus, though there is little in the form to suggest a dramatic turnaround is coming.
Never raced on dry ground
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How do odds work?
The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.
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