Nottingham

The oldest horse in this field at four, Marajito has her best record on today's fast, dry ground — winning 1 from 4 on similar conditions, better than her overall 1-in-9 average. She won at Ripon seven weeks ago but has since finished fifth and sixth, so the form has dipped at the worst time. A mid-field draw in stall five suits, but she needs to find more than her recent outings suggest she has.

The biggest unknown in the field — she hasn't raced in 189 days, the longest absence by far, and has never once run on today's fast, dry ground. She does boast the best career win rate here (1 in 5), but that single win came on an all-weather surface at Southwell, so the conditions today are a genuine question mark. If she handles the ground, she's interesting; if she doesn't, that long break looks an even bigger risk.

The editorial selection, and it's easy to see why — she's run second and third in her last two races and looks to be knocking on the door. Second-highest rated in the field and drawn widest of all in stall seven, which sits in the most favoured mid-range draw bracket at this course. Her jockey and trainer have only teamed up once before without a win, but the horse's form profile is the most progressive of any runner here.

By far the most experienced horse in this field with 59 races — the average for her rivals is around 17 — yet she's also the lowest rated, a full 13lbs below the field average. She carries the lightest weight as a result, but that advantage hasn't helped before: she has never won at this level of competition in 24 attempts. Hard to make a case for her at the age of seven with that record staring you in the face.