Nottingham

Like stablemate Effetto, Stellar has never raced before — but the key difference is her pedigree: she's by Sea The Stars, one of the most respected stallions in modern racing. Her jockey Jack Mitchell has won with this trainer roughly 1 in 5 times they've paired up, which is a solid record. The market makes her favourite of the two Varian debutants, and that vote of confidence from the betting ring matters.

Four races and not a single top-three finish — Moonlit Surf has been towards the back of the field every time she's run. She's stepping up two class levels today, which makes things harder, and she's never raced on dry ground like today's conditions. The market has drifted sharply away from her, and it's hard to find a reason to argue with that.

A complete unknown — this is Effetto's first ever race, so there's no form to judge her on. She's trained by Roger Varian, who also saddles the favourite Stellar today, which suggests this may be more of a learning run. Her odds drifting sharply from near-evens to 10/1 is a signal that the market isn't expecting a big performance first time out.

Only two races under her belt, but Sedeirah's most recent run — a second place at Pontefract just 19 days ago — showed real improvement after a poor debut. The jockey hasn't ridden for this trainer before, which adds a small note of uncertainty. At odds of 19/1 she's well down the market, but she's at least heading in the right direction.