Curragh
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GAIN Railway Stakes (Group 2)
Starts in
2h 47min
All Runners — sorted by TrackLab Score
Super Value
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite and second only to Carry The Flag in the official ratings, which explains why punters have been backing him in. He's lightly raced with just two outings, but his Ascot run — sixth, beaten less than two lengths — came in what is typically a stronger contest than this, which is an encouraging sign. Ryan Moore, who wins roughly 1 in 3 races alongside this trainer, takes the ride.
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Market favourite (2.22)
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Good Value
TrackLab Insight
The only horse in this field who has already won at this exact course and distance — a fact that sets him apart from every rival. However, he then ran at Ascot and finished 15th, beaten over seven lengths, so the jury is out on whether that Curragh win was as strong as it looked. This is only his third race, he's lightly raced and unexposed, but the Ascot flop is hard to ignore at the odds.
Only course winner (1 from 1 here)
Only winner at this distance
Has won over this course and distance
Lightly raced (2 career races)
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TrackLab Insight
The top-rated horse in this field by some margin and the only one to win roughly 2 in every 5 races — the best record here. He's finished in the top three in every race he's ever run, bounced back from a poor Ascot run with a win at Naas, and carries the expert verdict firmly in his favour. The wearable cheekpieces are worth noting, and his excellent record on dry ground makes today's conditions ideal.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 2)
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TrackLab Insight
Shares the same official rating as Confucius, so on paper these two are level — but Immortal Guard has never raced on today's dry ground, which is a genuine unknown. He has placed in every race he's run, including a win and a third at this course, so the track holds no fears. However, he hasn't raced for 55 days and steps up to Group 2 company for the first time, making this a tougher ask.
Never raced on dry ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
3 straight top-3 finishes
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TrackLab Insight
Won on debut at Navan but then finished 14th at Ascot, beaten nearly ten lengths — a result that mirrors what several others in this field experienced there. He drifted out in the betting from an already long price, and the jockey-trainer combination has yet to win a race together. With no official rating published, it's difficult to place him against the top horses on merit.
Lightly raced (2 career races)
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TrackLab Insight
Won at Fairyhouse just over a month ago and arrives here in good form, having also run second at this course earlier in the season. Like Immortal Guard, he's never raced on dry ground, so today's fast conditions are an untested factor. He's drifted in from a longer price, which suggests punters see something here, but he lacks an official rating to compare with the top horses.
Never raced on dry ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
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TrackLab Insight
Officially rated 8 lb below the likes of Carry The Flag and Confucius — the lowest-rated runner in the field by a clear margin. He won at Listowel and placed three times in a row before a very poor Ascot run, finishing 16th beaten 12 lengths, and the step up to Group 2 level looks a big ask. At odds of 29, the market is telling a clear story here.
3 straight top-3 finishes
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The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.
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