Market Rasen

One of only a handful of course winners in this field, which counts for something at Market Rasen. Wins roughly 1 in every 4.5 races overall, and his record on normal ground is exceptional — 5 wins from just 9 races at that condition. The concern is a poor recent run at Haydock and a layoff before that; he's not in the sharpest form right now.

Top-rated alongside Indemnity but stands out as the horse with the best overall win rate in the field — winning roughly 2 in every 5 races across his career is genuinely exceptional. Back-to-back wins at Kempton and Haydock coming into this race make him the most in-form of the highly-rated runners. The market has drifted on him, but the form figures say he's a serious player.

The youngest horse in the field and the only one yet to win a race — zero wins from four career outings so far. He's been off for 111 days, the longest absence of any runner here, and returns with no wins to his name and an uncertain fitness profile. That said, he was beaten just a short head at Ascot last time out, and at only four years old he's the least exposed horse in the race with room to improve.

Like Indemnity, Howth is one of the few horses in this field to have already won at Market Rasen, which is a genuine advantage on an unusual track. His overall win rate is modest at roughly 1 in 7, and the data flags a troubling pattern — zero wins on normal ground from 8 attempts and zero wins on left-handed or right-handed galloping tracks, which covers most tracks including this one. At 41/1 the market is not convinced.

This horse has finished second in two of his last three races — consistent, but the wins have dried up across 24 career outings, with just 4 victories at roughly 1 in every 6 races. There's no standout reason to prefer him over the market leaders, and his odds of 21/1 reflect that honest assessment. He keeps turning up and placing, but this looks a tough race for him to finally convert.

Drops three class levels today — the biggest class drop of any horse in this field — which on paper is a big positive. Wins roughly 1 in every 5 races overall, but the data flags a concerning record on normal ground with zero wins from 4 attempts at that condition, and today's normal ground is exactly what he's been unable to handle. His best form has come on wetter surfaces.

Our selection according to the editorial verdict, but the data makes this a genuinely puzzling call — Charlus has won just once from 12 races and his last three runs include a pulled-up at Aintree and a 22nd place finish at Cheltenham. At 46/1 he's drifted dramatically from his opening price of 19/1, suggesting the market has seen nothing to change minds. The fitness edge and progressive profile cited by the editorial are things to take on trust rather than obvious from the numbers.

Finished second here at Market Rasen just 36 days ago, beaten by only half a length — that recent near-miss at this exact track is the most relevant piece of form in his record. With 3 wins from 38 career races he's not a natural winner, but he clearly knows his way around here. The jockey-trainer partnership has yet to win together in 8 attempts, which is a nagging concern.