Mr Lincoln

And yet there is something to work with here. Mr Lincoln has placed ten times in his career, meaning he has finished in the frame in nearly half of all his races. He is not a horse that drops out of contention and disappears — he keeps turning up in the mix, which is exactly what his recent form shows. In his last six runs he has finished second, third, second, fourth, sixth, and third. He was placed in four of those six, raced just yesterday, and clearly remains competitive at his level. The problem is that being competitive and actually winning are two very different things.

His best distance appears to be somewhere between a mile and a mile and a quarter, where he has won once from six races — a win rate of 17%, or roughly one in six, which is comfortably his strongest spell on the clock. That one win, again, was the Cork victory in 2023. His record at Class 4 level — one of the mid-tier grades — reads zero wins from three attempts, which suggests that when the competition tightens even slightly, he has not yet been able to find the extra gear required.

He is trained by Iain Jardine, whose yard in Carrutherstown has sent out 57 winners this season alone — a yard clearly operating with confidence and momentum. His most regular partner in the saddle is Gary Carroll, who has ridden him seven times for that one win together. Fourteen percent — roughly one win in every seven rides — is a reasonable enough record between them, though most of those partnerships have ended with a place rather than a victory. Mr Lincoln is the kind of horse that keeps the yard hopeful and punters cautious: honest, present, and just waiting for the stars to align for the second time.