Nottingham

Still looking for a first win from four races, but has never raced on dry ground like today's conditions — that's a genuine unknown. Drifted heavily in the market from an opening price of 1.1 to 5.5, which suggests few are confident it handles the step up to these conditions. Firmly in the mix for a place, but the ground question makes this a tricky one to trust.

By far the most battle-hardened horse in this small field with 15 races to its name — more than double the field average — and wins roughly 1 in 5, the best career win rate here. The big concern is that it has never won on dry ground like today's, blanking in all five attempts, despite a strong record when the ground is normal. The blinkers are on to sharpen focus, but that ground stat is hard to ignore.

Carries the lowest weight in the field, which is an advantage in a race like this, and has the best win rate of any horse here — winning 1 in every 4 races from just four outings. However, like Poor Relation, she has never raced on today's dry ground, and this jockey-trainer pairing is working together for the first time. The third at Nottingham last month at least shows she handles this track.