The public's favourite at 4.0, yet the analysts rate this horse below the top two on their figures — an interesting mismatch worth noting. Wins only roughly 1 in every 9 races, which is modest for a market leader, and a sixth at Newcastle last time out was underwhelming. The ground suits, but this horse will need to find more than it has shown recently to justify favouritism.
Won 2 of last 5Won here 1 timeLoves this ground (29% win rate)
TrackLab Insight
The form horse of the field — back-to-back wins at Newbury and Kempton in the last 25 days, and six consecutive top-three finishes overall. Crucially, that Newbury win came at this very course, giving it the best record on today's ground of any runner here. The market has drifted it out from 5.0 to 6.6, which is puzzling given a horse arriving in the form of its life.
Best record on this ground (2 from 7)3 straight top-3 finishes
The best win rate in the field by some distance — winning roughly 1 in every 3 races is rare at this level. The obvious concern is that today's dry ground has produced zero wins from five attempts, which is a real red flag at this price. William Buick takes the ride, but he and this trainer have yet to win together in four attempts.
Wearing cheekpiecesWon 2 of last 5Won at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
Has been shortening in the market and brings a strong record at today's trip, winning 38% of races over this distance range — among the best in this field. The dry ground also suits, with 2 wins from 5 races on similar conditions. A poor ninth at Newcastle last time gives slight pause, but the step back up in distance looks a positive move.
One of the more successful in the field (4 career wins)
Second in the market and arriving here on the back of a win at Chester 71 days ago, which keeps the form fresh enough. Rob Hornby, who rides today, wins roughly 2 in every 5 races on this horse — a notably strong partnership. The one concern is a poor record on slower ground, though today's dry conditions remove that worry entirely.
Won at this course & distanceWearing cheekpiecesWon 1 of last 5Won here 2 timesLoves this ground (29% win rate)
TrackLab Insight
The only confirmed course-and-distance winner in this field, with two wins from six races here at Newbury including a Class 2 success at this track just weeks ago — that local knowledge is a genuine weapon. Carries the lightest weight of any runner today, which gives a small physical advantage. The market has pushed it out to 8.0 despite that recent Newbury second, suggesting doubts, and its rating sits 7lbs below the field average — but course specialists at this level are always dangerous.
Lowest rated, 7lbs below averageCarries lowest weight in fieldCourse specialist (2 wins from 6 here)Has won over this course and distance
The pick of the analysts despite drifting in the market from 19s to 23s — punters clearly aren't convinced. Carries the highest rating in the field, which reflects genuine ability, but a 15th-place finish at Ascot last time out is hard to ignore, and this horse wins only roughly 1 in every 10 races. The good ground today plays to its strengths, but it needs to bounce back sharply to justify the selection.
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.