Doncaster

The best career win rate in the field — roughly 1 in 3 races — and the top official rating among the nine runners, yet he hasn't won on dry ground in seven attempts, which is a real concern given today's conditions. He's also returning from a year off, and his last three runs have all produced finishes in the bottom half of the field. The market has cooled dramatically from early prices, which tells its own story.

The best record over 7 furlongs of any runner here — 3 wins from 9 races at this distance — which matters in a race where the trip suits. He's been placing regularly without winning lately, and the low draw in stall 2 is an advantage at this course. The jockey-trainer partnership has only clicked once from 13 races together, which is a note of caution.

By far the most experienced horse in the field with 42 career races — more than double the field average of 19 — and he's finished in the top three on more than half those occasions, showing he's a tough and consistent competitor. He ran at Doncaster just 28 days ago and finished seventh, beaten only two lengths, which suggests this track suits him. However, dry ground has never been his friend — zero wins from nine races on it — and that's what he faces today.

Officially rated just a pound behind Yorkshire and towards the top of this field, yet the market has pushed him out to 16/1, suggesting punters have little faith after three poor runs last autumn. He's been off the track for roughly nine months, and his last run here ended in a 13th-place finish. Interestingly, dry ground is where he's done his best work — 3 wins from 7 races on it — so the conditions at least play to his strengths.