Ripon

The top-rated horse in the field by some margin and the one our ratings favour, Cadarn wins roughly 1 in 4 races across its career — the best win rate here. It has a strong record at this distance, winning 2 of its 3 races over a mile, and won at York last time out. The concern is that its record on normal ground is poor (no wins from 3 races), which is exactly what it faces today.

Jesmond Dawn carries the lowest weight in the field and is rated 7lbs below the average — both advantages in a race like this — and, crucially, it won over this exact course and distance just 12 days ago. It is the freshest course winner in the field and arrives in the best recent form of any runner, with three straight visits to the frame. The risk is that it has never won on a right-handed, undulating track like Ripon in 5 previous attempts — except, of course, last time out.

At 11 years old, Garden Oasis is the oldest horse in the field by three years, but crucially it is one of only two runners today who have won over this course and distance — and it has done so four times at Ripon, giving it a 19% win rate here. It is also the lower-rated of the two course winners, sitting 13lbs below Cadarn in the weights, which gives it some room. Its best form comes on fast, dry ground, which is a plus today.

The standout fact here is that Sir Paul Ramsey has won 2 from 7 races on normal ground — the best record on today's conditions in the field. However, its last three runs have been poor, finishing 7th, 6th, and 11th, and a 4-year-old claiming jockey takes the ride rather than the stable's more experienced options. Hard to fancy on current form despite the ground profile.