Ripon

Three races, no wins, no placed finishes — and a sequence of 11th, 11th and 7th makes this the most lightly raced and least proven horse in the field. She has never raced on normal ground before and is stepping into fresh territory on multiple fronts. There simply is not enough evidence here to make a confident case for her, and the data says so honestly.

Nine races without a single top-three finish is a tough record to look past, and despite the editorial figures placing him level with Mohmentous just off the top, the underlying form does not back up that rating. He is drawn in stall 1 on the inside rail, and at Ripon over a mile the low draws win only about 1 in 9 races — the worst part of the track at this distance. He does race today with cheekpieces and a tongue strap, which sometimes signals a horse being freshened up for a bold show, but there is no win to point to.

The editorial selection and top-rated on the figures, though by just a single point from Sparkling Pink — this is a genuinely tight call. Eleven races and still winless, but she has placed six times which shows she is consistently involved without ever quite sealing the deal. She steps up two class levels today and her most recent run result is unclear from the data, so there is some uncertainty heading in — take the rating edge with that caveat in mind.

Still looking for a first win after five races, and the recent form — finishing 11th, 8th and 5th — offers little encouragement. Crucially, he has never raced on normal ground before, so today brings an unknown element at a course that already shows a modest win rate from his mid-draw position. He has drifted dramatically in the market, and honestly, the data gives you very little reason to back him here.