Cartmel

The most experienced horse in the race with 46 career runs — nearly double the field average — and arriving in the best immediate form of anyone here, with three consecutive top-three finishes including a near miss just 11 days ago. The catch is he's rated 8lbs below the field average and has never won on a left-handed sharp track like Cartmel in 18 attempts. Tough and consistent, but that course-type record is a stubborn obstacle.

Top-rated in this field and the only proven winner at Cartmel among the main contenders, with three career wins coming specifically at this course — a remarkable record of specialisation. The big worry is that all those wins came on wet ground, and he has never won on normal conditions in eight attempts. His last run here ended in a distant seventh, so the drifting odds from a morning favourite down to 5.5 suggest punters have noticed that concern.

Second-highest rated horse in the race and, like the selection, one of only two runners who has actually won around Cartmel before. The problem is he has gone 6-4-7 in his last three races, including a 19-length sixth here just 20 days ago, and he has never won on a left-handed sharp track like this one in eight attempts. A persistent place-getter with just one win from 15 races, he seems to keep finding a reason to get beaten.

The editorial verdict names this horse as one of the main dangers, yet Forsa Bay has never won a race in 11 career attempts — the only winless horse among the four fancied runners. The last outing ended in a pull-up at Market Rasen, and the run before that was a 24-length fifth. There is clearly some ability tucked in there given three placed finishes, but the evidence for a first win arriving here is thin.