Market Rasen

The standout course specialist in the field — four wins from 14 races at Market Rasen is a record none of his rivals can match here. He has been running consistently into third place at Uttoxeter recently, suggesting he is fit and competitive, and the editorial team flag him as capable of running well. The one worry is that his recent form has come on left-handed tracks where his overall record away from Market Rasen is poor.

The editorial team rate him as one of the main dangers, and he has a strong claim — he has won at this course and distance before, which is a specific box few rivals can tick. A third-place finish 20 days ago at Uttoxeter shows he is in reasonable nick, though his wider record at left-handed tracks (one win from 13 races) is a concern. The jockey-trainer combination has managed just one win from 42 races together, which is not encouraging.

Has won two races in a row, including one at this course 71 days ago — so he arrives with strong recent form and course form combined, which is a compelling combination. His record on normal ground is the best in the field: three wins from seven races, winning roughly 1 in every 2 races on these conditions. At 19/1 in the market, he looks like he could be underestimated.

The best career win rate in the field — roughly one win in every four races — and the only four-year-old taking on older horses here, which means he carries the lightest weight in the race. His form over long distances is particularly strong, with a 40% win rate at two miles or more, which suits perfectly today. Three placed finishes from his last three completed runs suggest he is running consistently well.

Zero wins from seven career races makes Saxon Cross one of the two least experienced and yet-to-win horses in the field, alongside Arnie Moon. His last run was a distant sixth at Uttoxeter, beaten nearly 34 lengths, which is hard to put a positive spin on. At 34/1, the market has assessed him accurately as a long shot.

Our top pick for this race, though not the market's — Glory And Honour sits at 26/1 despite topping our own ratings by six pounds over the field average, which is a notable gap in a tightly-graded field. At 10 years old with 62 races under his belt, he is comfortably the most experienced horse here, and he won at Hexham just six weeks ago. The big question is whether the market knows something our figures don't.

The least experienced in the field alongside Saxon Cross, with just seven races to his name and no wins yet — which makes his second-highest joint rating of 110 a bit of a puzzle. He fell at Exeter on his last completed run before finishing fourth at Worcester, so reliability has been an issue. There is not enough evidence yet to confidently back him in a 13-runner field like this.