Southwell
·
Handicap Stakes
Starts in
16h 42min
Tapeta surface
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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£1 wins £2.75 · 23 Strong chance
Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice
23
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 11/4
£1 wins £2.75 · 23 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.75 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- Dropped to an easier race today. It is like being the big fish in a smaller pond. The lower standard should suit.
- This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Market favourite at 7/2 with form reading 2-7-6 in his last three, including a second at Newcastle just 29 days ago—but he has eight career races without a single win. The winless record combined with recent inconsistency (dropped from second to seventh) is the fly in the favourite's ointment.
Market favourite (7/2)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- K. Stott has won 13.6% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Three straight top-3 finishes, including a heart-breaking second by just 0.1 lengths 99 days ago, show a horse knocking hard on the door. However, he's yet to race on standard ground (those form lines are from Ireland), so no data exists on how he'll handle the Southwell surface—a genuine unknown.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 3 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- 1 run here without a win. That counts against the horse. The track layout may not suit it.
- 14 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Second in the market at 5/1 despite zero wins from five career races—both finished in the top 3 efforts came on faster ground at Newcastle and Kempton, not on Southwell's tapeta. Finished seventh here 69 days ago, and the jump from third-place finishes to victory in a handicap is typically a big one.
2nd in the market (5/1)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £10.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Has run 1 time at this track with no wins yet. Some horses do not take to some courses.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Five races without a win, and drawing 10 puts her on the worst-performing side of this track—just 7% win rate from high draws here. She's been beaten by 18+ lengths in both Southwell outings and remains winless everywhere else; nothing in the data suggests this is the day she breaks through.
Relatively inexperienced (5 career races)
8
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 9 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- With £3,768 in prize money, this is a competitive race. The horse has been entered for a reason.
- G. Arnolda wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Fancied at 6/1 and has run consistently close (four consecutive top-4 finishes), but only one win in 21 races tells the real story—he struggles to finish the job when it matters. He has no wins on standard ground from nine attempts, and this surface simply doesn't suit his profile.
Among the fancied runners (6/1)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- P. Bradley has won 8.6% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- Has won 1 time at this course from 4 runs. A horse that has won here before may like the course.
- P. Morris wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
One of only three course winners in the field, with a single Southwell victory to his name, but his recent form has deteriorated sharply—ninth at Chester 43 days ago suggests he's out of sorts. The real concern: he has won both his career wins on standard ground at Southwell, and hasn't won once on faster surfaces anywhere else.
One of few course winners (1 wins here)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 8 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- Has raced here 4 times without winning. This course has not suited the horse so far.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Underrated at 33/1, she arrives fresh off a fourth-place finish 11 days ago and carries form of 4-4-1 in her last three; that Nottingham win came just 95 days back, proving she can cross the line. The catch is stark: she has never won on standard ground (0 from 8 starts) and that's exactly what this track serves up today.
Outsider at 33/1
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £12.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Handles this ground well, with 22% of its races won on it. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
- Recent results are getting better. The horse is finishing higher up. A horse that is improving often keeps improving.
- D. Carroll has a 5.1% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
The standout course specialist: two wins from six Southwell races is roughly double his career win rate, and this trip and ground type sit among his best profiles. Recent form dipped with a seventh at Hamilton, but his Southwell record—and the fact he's won twice here before—makes him genuinely dangerous.
Course specialist (2 wins from 6 here)
Best record on this ground (2 from 9)
Best record at this trip (2 from 6)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 11 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- A prize fund of £3,768 is healthy. When trainers aim at valuable races, they usually have faith in their runner.
- A 0% record at this course for C. Clover. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Three career wins and suited to this 1m4f trip, but every single one of those victories came on fast, dry ground—he has zero wins from 11 starts on standard ground. This is his exact weakness on his exact surface; recent form (sixth at Brighton) is also muted.
One of the more successful in the field (3 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 5 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- Has run 3 times at this track with no wins yet. Some horses do not take to some courses.
- 14 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Three-year-old with six races and zero wins, finishing out of the top three every time despite being well-rated by the handicapper (+3 vs field average). Finished tenth at Southwell 89 days ago and recent form of 5-5-10 shows mid-field mediocrity; no data suggests he's ready to win.
Relatively inexperienced (6 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £26.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Dropped to an easier race today. It is like being the big fish in a smaller pond. The lower standard should suit.
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- G. Arnolda wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Absent for 166 days (by far the longest layoff in the field) and still searching for a first win after nine races, finishing 10th in both most recent outings. The gap between racecourse fitness and competition level after this long away is a real concern, and his recent form offers no evidence he's ready to trouble the winner.
Absent 166 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £23.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 16 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- With £3,768 in prize money, this is a competitive race. The horse has been entered for a reason.
- R. Phillips has a 3.4% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Eight-year-old with three career wins, but none of them from 16 starts on standard ground and none at this track. He's a Brighton specialist who struggles on left-handed galloping tracks (0 from 9), making Southwell an unsuitable venue despite his experience.
One of the more successful in the field (3 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £17.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- There is £3,768 in prize money in this race. That attracts good horses, and this one looks to belong among them.
- A low win rate on this ground from 31 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- Has won here 6 times in 22 visits. That record at this course is a good sign.
TrackLab Insight
The field's most experienced runner and a genuine Southwell specialist with six wins from 23 races here—a 26% win rate unmatched by any rival. The last win came on 13 March over this exact distance on standard ground; he won at this track and surface type before and knows exactly what's required.
Most experienced (55 runs, field avg 20)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 8)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £23.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 5.4% overall win rate for W. Cox. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- With £3,768 in prize money, this is a competitive race. The horse has been entered for a reason.
- F. Bramley wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Lowest-rated horse in the field, carrying the least weight, with just one win in 17 career races and that came 18 months ago. He finished third at Ffos Las 27 days ago but struggles on left-handed galloping tracks (0 from 7), and that's exactly what Southwell is.
Lowest rated, 4lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.