Southwell
·
Handicap Stakes
Starts in
19h 42min
Tapeta surface
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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£1 wins £5 · 19 Solid chance
I. Jardine has a good 25% record here
19
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- I. Jardine has a good 25% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- Handles this ground well, with 42% of its races won on it. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
- This horse is not suited by Standard ground. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
TrackLab Insight
Mount Ruapehu holds a remarkable 100% record at Southwell (3 wins from 3 starts) and a 42% win rate on standard ground—genuinely standout credentials for this race. However, he finished 7th at Newcastle just 12 days ago and was 8th before that, suggesting current form may not match his track record here.
Best record on this ground (5 from 12)
3
Age of Time
£1 wins £4 · 13 Solid chance
Has run 3 times at this track with no wins yet
13
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has run 3 times at this track with no wins yet. Some horses do not take to some courses.
- A 13.6% overall win rate for K. Stott. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Market favourite at 4/1, Age Of Time won twice on standard ground and excels beyond 1m1f, but this 6-furlong sprint sits away from his sweet spot. His last three runs show 5th, 8th and 9th finishes, and he has won nothing on fast ground—conditions that typically suit shorter distances more than his proven preferences.
Market favourite (4/1)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- R. Craggs wins 20% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- With a 15.1% win rate overall, C. Rodriguez is one of the more dependable riders.
- 14 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
He has won 1 from 19 races but has finished in the money in 10 races overall, and his win came on standard ground—a positive indicator for this race.
2nd in the market (13/2)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 8 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- J. Jones has a good 40% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- 14 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Mehmar is the lowest-rated runner (5lbs below average) stepping up three classes and returns after a 94-day absence with a 12th-place finish at Naas. He wins roughly 1 in every 12 races and has never won on standard ground despite being entered here; this represents a significant gamble on both rating and recent readiness.
Lowest rated, 5lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Steps up 3 classes
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- With £3,768 in prize money, this is a competitive race. The horse has been entered for a reason.
- E. Bethell wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Edmond Halley finished 2nd or 3rd in five of his first 13 races and has crept closer recently—beaten just 0.8 lengths at Newcastle 12 days ago. Yet he remains winless from 13 attempts, suggesting a horse who consistently runs well without quite breaking through, and this represents another opportunity to end that drought rather than a certainty he will.
Top-3 finishes in 2 of last 3 races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £10.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 4 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- Dropped to an easier race today. It is like being the big fish in a smaller pond. The lower standard should suit.
- This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Dragon God has finished in the top 3 in two of his last three races, though he remains a rare winner—just one success from 17 attempts. He thrives on fast, dry ground where he has won at 12%, but standard conditions at Southwell and sharp tracks have proven problematic; this race comes on normal going, which ranks among his weak points.
Top-3 finishes in 2 of last 3 races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £11.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An experienced horse with 53 career runs. Experienced horses tend to be steadier and less likely to run badly.
- Has won 9 times over this distance. That is a good sign the race length suits the horse.
- A low win rate on this ground from 36 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
TrackLab Insight
Due Date is one of the few proven course winners here with 1 victory at Southwell and wins roughly 1 in every 6 races across 53 attempts. He was only 2.2 lengths away from 2nd place at Wolverhampton 39 days ago and represents a horse with genuine lower-level form credentials, though he struggles on both sharp and galloping right-handed tracks.
One of few course winners (1 wins here)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £10.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A prize fund of £3,768 is healthy. When trainers aim at valuable races, they usually have faith in their runner.
- Recent results are getting better. The horse is finishing higher up. A horse that is improving often keeps improving.
- A 0% record at this course for K. & Lauren Frost. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Piperstown has the best win rate in the field at roughly 1 in every 4 races and won at Southwell 196 days ago, but his last run was a shocker—beaten 14.8 lengths at Newcastle just 12 days back. He has a course record of 27% at Southwell and a 50% win rate with his jockey Oliver Stammers, but recent form raises serious questions about current readiness.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Dropped to an easier race today. It is like being the big fish in a smaller pond. The lower standard should suit.
- This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Montpellier Green has won just once from 18 races, and that victory came over two years ago; recent form shows consecutive finishes outside the frame. He is the lowest-rated horse carrying the lowest weight but steps up two classes here, and his record on standard ground and poor form trajectory makes this a tall order.
Mid-range in the market (16/1)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 6 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- Racing against weaker rivals than last time. Think of a Premier League team playing in the Championship. The drop in level helps.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Havana Joy carries a high rating but is friendless in the betting after 148 days off—the longest absence in this field. She has never won from 10 races and finished last time beaten more than 13 lengths, making this a significant step back up in ambition after so long away.
Absent 148 days (longest in field)
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £19.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 14 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- A 7.2% overall win rate for J. R. Jenkins. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Dr Ali has won 2 of 28 races (one every 14 attempts) and finished 2nd just 0.5 lengths away at Lingfield 77 days ago. He shows particular improvement when ridden by Jonny Peate and carries a 17% win rate on standard-to-slow ground, fitting this race's conditions, though five of his last six finishes have been outside the frame.
Among the more experienced (28 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- With £3,768 in prize money, this is a competitive race. The horse has been entered for a reason.
- K. & Lauren Frost wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
He's An Angel carries a 29% win rate on standard ground and boasts his best career record at this 6-furlong trip with 4 wins from 16 attempts. The concern is a 102-day gap since his last race and zero wins on fast ground—conditions that can dominate short-distance form—though his Wolverhampton form (3 wins from 8 starts) is a genuine strength.
Best record at this trip (4 from 16)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £19.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- There is £3,768 in prize money in this race. That attracts good horses, and this one looks to belong among them.
- An experienced horse with 58 career runs. Experienced horses tend to be steadier and less likely to run badly.
- K. & Lauren Frost wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Papa Don't Preach is the most experienced runner with 58 races but has won just 4 times—winning roughly 1 in every 14 starts. His last three runs yielded three 6th-place finishes, and he has never won at Southwell from 8 attempts; recent form offers little encouragement for a breakthrough.
Most experienced (58 runs, field avg 28)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Facing weaker rivals than last time out. When a horse drops to an easier race, it often finds things easier.
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- A 0% record at this course for C. Benton. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Addictive remains winless from 9 races and steps up two classes into this handicap, having finished 13th at Kempton just 19 days ago. The only positive sign is a 3rd-place finish three days before that entry, but he is stepping significantly above his ceiling and carries the weakest recent form in this line-up.
Steps up 2 classes
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.