Southwell
·
Handicap Stakes
Starts in
16h 12min
Tapeta surface
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Racing against weaker rivals than last time. Think of a Premier League team playing in the Championship. The drop in level helps.
- There is £5,653 in prize money in this race. That attracts good horses, and this one looks to belong among them.
- A 5.7% record at this course for M. Appleby. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Bona Fortuna is the market favourite at 4/1 after winning at Wolverhampton 26 days ago and posting two finished in the top 3 finishes in his last six races, establishing current momentum. His 21% win rate is among the field's best, though he carries a significant weakness on good ground and races from stall 12, drawing outside the low-numbered sweet spot.
Market favourite (4/1)
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Dropped to an easier race today. It is like being the big fish in a smaller pond. The lower standard should suit.
- An 8.2% overall win rate for D. Keenan. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- The Standard ground does not suit this horse. The wrong ground can turn a contender into an also-ran.
TrackLab Insight
Moulin Booj was a course winner just 28 days ago and holds one of only two Southwell victories in the field—a serious edge on a track where he understands the setup. His 18% career win rate sits among the best here, though he's sensitive to ground conditions and struggles on anything softer than fast turf, which limits his tactical options.
One of few course winners (2 wins here)
£1 wins £7.50 · 13 Solid chance
This horse runs well on today's ground
13
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This horse runs well on today's ground, with a 25% win rate from 4 runs. The ground makes a big difference in racing.
- 9 wins at this race length. Distance matters. If it is too short, the horse cannot use its staying power. If it is too long, the horse gets tired.
- This horse is not suited by Standard ground. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
TrackLab Insight
The second-highest rated horse in the field, but three consecutive Ascot runs have left her well beaten, suggesting she may have hit a soft patch. Her honest 19% career win rate is solid, but recent form and a zero record on yielding ground are concerns at this class level.
2nd highest rated (OR 85)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- K. Stott wins 13.6% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- Dropped to an easier race today. It is like being the big fish in a smaller pond. The lower standard should suit.
- An 11.3% record at this course for K. Stott. Some jockeys just do not do well at some courses.
TrackLab Insight
Betsen won at Southwell in November and draws well in stall 2, but a modest 10% win rate masks persistent inconsistency—recent form reads 9th-3rd-5th and the trainer-jockey combo has yet to win together in seven attempts. Honest racehorse, but not built for breakthrough moments.
Mid-range in the market (9/1)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Facing weaker rivals than last time out. When a horse drops to an easier race, it often finds things easier.
- This horse runs well on today's ground, with a 20% win rate from 20 runs. The ground makes a big difference in racing.
- A 0% record at this course for R. Cowell. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced runner in the field with 54 races under his belt, Rhythm N Hooves won at Newbury just seven weeks ago and finished second at Ascot most recently—recent evidence of genuine form. He's suited to sprint distances and good-to-soft ground, though he's never won at Wolverhampton or Windsor and struggles on sharp-turning tracks.
Most experienced (54 runs, field avg 28)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- J. Tate wins 25.6% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- J. Tate has won 16.5% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- A 13-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Night Storm boasts the best career win rate in the field at 33% (2 wins from 6 races), wins at this exact distance and ground conditions, and arrives with legitimate pedigree as a young improver. His 102-day absence is the longest in the field, however, raising questions about ring-rustiness after such a long break.
Best record on this ground (1 from 3)
Best record at this trip (2 from 3)
Absent 102 days (longest in field)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £11.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has won at this distance 4 times before. A horse that has shown it can last the trip is a plus.
- Has raced 18 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- R. Cowell wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Almaty Star has compiled three consecutive top-3 finishes (2nd-16th-3rd) over recent weeks, though the middle run at York was a notable dud. His 12% win rate is modest and he struggles on good-to-soft and good-to-firm ground alike, limiting his effectiveness in changing conditions.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £11.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- B. Garritty has won 10.4% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- M. & David Easterby has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
She's Got A Brother holds two course wins at Southwell but has had a rough five months—recent form is 9th-14th-10th, punctuated by a clear-out at Ayr where she was beaten 21 lengths. Her 22% career win rate looks good on paper, but recent evidence contradicts any confidence.
One of few course winners (2 wins here)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £17.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Handles this ground well, with 33% of its races won on it. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
- 2 runs here without a win. That counts against the horse. The track layout may not suit it.
- 13 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Kanishka is the lowest-rated horse in the field (71 OR, nine pounds below average) and his 7% win rate tells the story—just one win from 15 races with a recent run of 18th-11th-16th that suggests he's miles away from winning at this level. The only saving grace is that he carries the lightest weight (121lbs), but form is too poor to overcome it.
Lowest rated, 9lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 6 wins at this race length. Distance matters. If it is too short, the horse cannot use its staying power. If it is too long, the horse gets tired.
- Wins 21% of the time on this type of ground. Some horses run much better on soft or firm ground. This one suits today's ground.
- A 6.2% record at this course for L. Williamson. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Sugar Hill Babe is one of only two course winners here with a 2-win record at Southwell, but her last four races show a sharp decline (9th-6th-1st-9th) and she carries a partnership limitation—the trainer combo with Harry Davies is untested together. Her best form came with Lewis Edmunds (50% win rate), who is not riding today.
One of few course winners (2 wins here)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £26.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Results are getting better with each run. A horse on the way up has a good chance of a win soon.
- A prize fund of £5,653 is healthy. When trainers aim at valuable races, they usually have faith in their runner.
- P. Morris wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Henrythenate carries the longest odds (25/1) of any horse here and offers only thin data—just 19 races with inconsistent recent form (13th-1st-4th reads like a lucky strike). He's unproven with jockey Jack Dace and carries a poor record on good ground, making him a high-risk proposition.
Top-3 finishes in 2 of last 3 races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- With £5,653 in prize money, this is a competitive race. The horse has been entered for a reason.
- R. Cowell wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Wateen is relatively inexperienced with just six career races and holds low standard ratings (OR 78, nine pounds below average). She won once at Lingfield but is a complete novice in this grade, with recent form showing consecutive bottom-half finishes at Southwell, Redcar and Nottingham.
Relatively inexperienced (6 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This horse runs well on today's ground, with a 25% win rate from 12 runs. The ground makes a big difference in racing.
- Today's race is over 5f. That distance looks right for this horse. Running over the right distance matters a lot.
- S. Dixon has a 7.5% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Alondra won at Doncaster just 113 days ago and finished 4th in that same venue a week later, showing she retains ability, but her most recent outing at Bath was a 12th-place effort beaten 11.8 lengths. She's in that dangerous middle ground—clearly decent on her day, but form is patchy and she's 9 pounds below average weight.
Top-3 finishes in 2 of last 3 races
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.