Southwell
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AWC Season 14 Has Begun EBF Maiden Stakes (Div I) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)
Starts in
17h 12min
Tapeta surface
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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£1 wins £1.75 · 31 Strong chance
A 26.7% win rate at this course for J. & Thady Gosden
31
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 7/4
£1 wins £1.75 · 31 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.75 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 26.7% win rate at this course for J. & Thady Gosden. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- R. Havlin wins 11.3% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- J. & Thady Gosden has a 26.7% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Making a racecourse debut with solid bloodlines: by Camelot (a proven top-class stallion) out of an Equiano mare, so the pedigree backs legitimate ability. Partnered with Robert Havlin and trained by the high-quality Gosden partnership, but debut form is unpredictable territory.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An 11.9% overall win rate for D. Muscutt. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- A 19.4% overall win rate for O. Burrows. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- This horse is not suited by Standard ground. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite at 7/2, making a racecourse debut with solid bloodlines (Best Solution sire, Santiago dam), but being favourite as a first-time runner in an open maiden doesn't change the basic fact—no form, pure potential. The odds have shortened from 1/10, suggesting confidence in the yard or pedigree.
Racecourse debut
Market favourite (7/2)
8
Ring of Music
£1 wins £3.50 · 15 Solid chance
Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice
15
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- H. Palmer wins 14.4% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- H. Palmer wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Third on debut 23 days ago at Newcastle, beaten just a length, so early promise is there. Hugo Palmer's yard is in excellent form with 67 winners already this season, and the horse showed more to it than most in this field, but one close third-place finish leaves plenty of unknowns.
Lightly raced (1 career races)
£1 wins £12 · 8 Could surprise
J. Mitchell wins 50% of their races at this course
8
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- J. Mitchell wins 50% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- S. Crisford wins 28.6% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- Today's ground is Standard, and that is not ideal. A horse on the wrong ground can run much worse.
TrackLab Insight
A 3-year-old making a racecourse debut—already older than most of the field and still untested on the track, which is unusual. By Written Tycoon (genuine class sire) out of an I Am Invincible mare, the pedigree is respectable, but a debut at three rather than two often signals the horse needed extra time to mature.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- G. Boughey has a good 19.3% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- A 16.6% overall win rate for G. Boughey. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- G. Boughey wins only 19.3% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Racecourse debut by Sioux Nation (a sire built for early speed) out of a Dragon Pulse mare, giving the pedigree a foundation of promise. George Boughey's yard has a solid record with young horses, but this remains pure potential—form will only emerge once the gates open.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £12.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- S. Williams wins 11.4% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- D. Hogan has won 9.4% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- S. Williams wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
One race, one third-place finish at Ffos Las, and this is the horse's first crack at normal ground—another step into the unknown. The timing matters: Stuart Williams's yard is in explosive form with 67 winners already this season, so Naval Empire gets expert tuition, but one run tells you almost nothing.
Never raced on normal ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)
£1 wins £11 · 6 Could surprise
A. Balding has won 14.4% of their races in their career
6
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £12.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A. Balding has won 14.4% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- A. Balding has a good 16.7% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- C. Hutchinson has a 10.6% win rate at this course. They have not had much luck here. Knowing the track helps, and that is missing.
TrackLab Insight
Fourth on debut at Bath 25 days ago, now stepping onto an unfamiliar surface in normal ground conditions. Andrew Balding's yard is one of the sharpest in the country, but there's still very little to work with here—just one run and no indication this horse has moved forward since.
Never raced on normal ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £26.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- S. Mark Prescott Bt has won 19.8% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- The official rating suggests this horse has work to do. Lower-rated horses need to improve to win.
TrackLab Insight
Two races in and Chertsey has finished in the top 3 both times—third here at Southwell nine days ago, third at Salisbury before that. The horse clearly has the basics sorted at this early stage, and runs on normal ground at a track where it's already shown ability, which counts for plenty in a wide-open maiden field of mostly untested two-year-olds.
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £19.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- H. Eustace wins 100% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- H. Eustace has a good 100% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- This horse is not suited by Standard ground. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
TrackLab Insight
Two races without a top-3 finish and never raced on normal ground before, so this surface is unfamiliar ground. The form reads 7-6 in the placings, and that's exactly what the data shows—no margin for error here.
Never raced on normal ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £101.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- J. Portman wins 8.0% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- R. Hornby wins 10.3% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- A 4.3% record at this course for J. Portman. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Eighth on debut at Kempton 19 days ago, now facing normal ground for the first time—neither of those facts suggests a big move forward. The 100/1 odds reflect a horse struggling to convince so far, and nothing in the data hints at a breakthrough today.
Never raced on normal ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.