The standout is Hickton's form at Southwell, where it has won 2 of 6 races — a rate of one win in every three visits. That is course form worth noting. The horse's last victory came there on 25 April, five months ago, and it regularly comes into the places at that track. Distance also matters: at races between 1 mile 6 furlongs and 2 miles, Hickton has won 3 of 14 races, a 21% win rate that beats its career average. The horse thrives on normal ground too, winning 2 of 9 races when conditions are standard.
Recent form has been patchy. In the last six races, stretching back from yesterday's run, Hickton has failed to win, with a best finish of third place twice. The horse is clearly running but not threatening. The partnership with jockey Zak Wheatley, however, tells a different story. Together they have won 3 of 12 races — a 25% win rate that is significantly above the horse's overall record. That suggests the pairing clicks, and when Wheatley is in the saddle at Southwell, on normal ground, over the distance Hickton favours, the conditions align. Trainer Declan Carroll, based in Malton, runs a steady yard that has sent out 24 winners this season, and Hickton sits somewhere in the middle of a working team. The horse is not a natural winner, but it knows where it wins best — and that matters.
| Course | Races | Results | Last run | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwell Galloping |
6 | 2 wins, 1 third, 3 other | 7 May | 33.3% |
| Hamilton Park Sharp |
4 | 1 win, 1 second, 1 third, 1 other | 28 Sep | 25% |
| Newcastle Galloping |
3 | 3 other | 20 Aug | 0% |
| Catterick Bridge Sharp |
3 | 2 thirds, 1 other | 8 Apr | 0% |
| Beverley Undulating |
3 | 1 third, 2 other | 23 Sep | 0% |
| Redcar Galloping |
2 | 2 other | 20 Jul | 0% |
| Thirsk Galloping |
2 | 1 third, 1 other | 14 Sep | 0% |
| Wetherby Galloping |
1 | 1 other | 11 Jun | 0% |
| Leicester Sharp |
1 | 1 other | 15 Oct | 0% |
| Pontefract Undulating |
1 | 1 other | 22 May | 0% |