Southwell
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Awc Season 14 Has Begun Nursery Handicap Stakes
Starts in
15h 36min
Tapeta surface
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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£1 wins £1.38 · 44 Very strong chance
4 runners today is a good number for this horse
44
Our top pick for this race
Very strong chance
Odds 11/8
£1 wins £1.38 · 44 Very strong chance
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.38 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 4 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- I. Furtado wins only 9.4% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Top-rated runner in this field by 4lbs, and recent form is sharp—2nd at Newcastle three weeks ago was his third consecutive top-3 finish, building from a win at Redcar. The question mark is raw consistency: he's won only 1 of 5 races overall, so the current purple patch could easily dip, but the trend is clearly upward.
Top rated by 4lbs
3 straight top-3 finishes
£1 wins £2 · 28 Strong chance
This is a 4-runner race, and the size suits this horse
28
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This is a 4-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- No wins at this distance yet. We cannot tell if the race is too long, too short or just right.
- Today's ground is Standard, and that is not ideal. A horse on the wrong ground can run much worse.
TrackLab Insight
Market favourite after winning at Newcastle last week, and his win rate of roughly 1 in 5 races is solid for a two-year-old. However, the price has drifted heavily (from 1/5 to 13/8), and his form outside that Newcastle win is poor—he's finished 6th and 9th in his previous two starts, suggesting the victory may be his ceiling rather than the start of a run.
Market favourite (13/8)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 4 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- A 15.1% overall win rate for C. Rodriguez. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
Best win rate in the field at 40% (2 wins from 5 races), with both victories coming recently at Bath and Brighton, and carries the lightest weight here at 127lbs. The major concern is ground: never raced on normal conditions before—both wins came on different surfaces—so this represents uncharted territory for the filly.
Carries lowest weight in field
Never raced on normal ground
Best career win rate in field (1 in 2)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £11.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 4-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- Finished 10th last time, which was a disappointing run. A poor last run raises questions about the horse's current form.
TrackLab Insight
Lowest rated horse in the field at 73, and form has deteriorated sharply—10th by 20 lengths at Nottingham three weeks ago is a poor marker. With only 2 wins from 13 races and recent form trending downward, this horse faces an uphill task against rivals in better current order.
Lowest rated, 4lbs below average
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.