Southwell
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Awc Season 14 Has Begun Ebf Maiden Stakes (Div II) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)
Starts in
17h 42min
Tapeta surface
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 11/8
£1 wins £1.38 · 39 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.38 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- R. Varian wins 24.7% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
This horse has the shortest price at 11/8 after finishing second at Southwell just 18 days ago, beaten only 0.1 lengths. With just one career race, the form is limited, but the narrow defeat and Varian's Newmarket operation suggest enough potential to explain the market confidence.
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Market favourite (11/8)
£1 wins £3.33 · 22 Strong chance
J. & Thady Gosden wins 26.7% of their races at this course
22
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £4.33 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- J. & Thady Gosden wins 26.7% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- R. Havlin has won 11.3% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- J. & Thady Gosden has a 26.7% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Racecourse debut for a Dubawi colt out of a Galileo mare, combining two outstanding sire lines. John & Thady Gosden have the strongest record in this field — 172 wins from 871 races with jockey Robert Havlin — giving this horse credibility on pedigree alone.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 19.3% win rate at this course for G. Boughey. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- G. Boughey wins 16.6% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- A 19.3% record at this course for G. Boughey. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Racecourse debut for a Starspangledbanner colt, so there is nothing to assess yet beyond bloodlines. The sire is known for producing quick, front-running types, though the Azamour dam adds scope for middle distances — suggesting a horse that could need time to show its best.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- S. Crisford has a good 28.6% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- S. Crisford wins 19.1% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- This horse is not suited by Standard ground. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
TrackLab Insight
First-time runner by Frankel out of a Dubawi mare — pedigree alone suggests serious breeding intent, with both sire lines proven at the highest level. This is a complete debut, so form is non-existent, but the bloodlines warrant respect.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A. Balding wins 14.4% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- A 14.4% overall win rate for A. Balding. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- C. Hutchinson has a 10.6% win rate at this course. They have not had much luck here. Knowing the track helps, and that is missing.
TrackLab Insight
Racecourse debut for a Gleneagles colt with a pedigree built for both speed and stamina. Andrew Balding's Kingsclere yard has a solid record with this jockey pairing, though there is nothing on the racetrack to judge yet.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 14.8% overall win rate for A. King. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- A 10.3% overall win rate for R. Hornby. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- Today's ground is Standard, and that is not ideal. A horse on the wrong ground can run much worse.
TrackLab Insight
Two races, two failures to finish in the top 3, with the most recent a sixth-place finish 17 days ago. He races on normal ground for the first time today, but the form so far has not shown enough to suggest an immediate turnaround.
Never raced on normal ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £19.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- G. Boughey wins 16.6% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- D. Muscutt wins 11.9% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- The Standard ground does not suit this horse. The wrong ground can turn a contender into an also-ran.
TrackLab Insight
Two races, no wins or top-3 finishes — most recently sixth at Salisbury 43 days ago and tenth at Newbury before that. He returns on normal ground for the first time but hasn't shown the form needed to trouble the frame yet.
Never raced on normal ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- D. O'Meara has won 12.0% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- A 12% overall win rate for D. O'Meara. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- Today's ground is Standard, and that is not ideal. A horse on the wrong ground can run much worse.
TrackLab Insight
Racecourse debut for a Saxon Warrior colt with a Dubawi mare dam — both sire lines carry proven credentials for pace and soundness. David O'Meara's North Yorkshire yard is experienced, though this is a complete unknown on the racetrack.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 19.8% overall win rate for S. Mark Prescott Bt. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- S. Mark Prescott Bt has won 19.8% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- This horse is not suited by Standard ground. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
TrackLab Insight
Two races without a win or top-3 finish: seventh at Yarmouth 12 days ago and eleventh at Kempton before that, with a significant 29-length gap in the earlier race. Trained by Sir Mark Prescott at one of Britain's most respected stables, but the form offers little encouragement.
Never raced on normal ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £51.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- W. Knight has won 11.4% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- The official rating suggests this horse has work to do. Lower-rated horses need to improve to win.
TrackLab Insight
Two races, two failures to crack the frame — sixth at Southwell 32 days ago and fourth at Lingfield before that. The long gap since last racing and unconvincing efforts suggest the horse is still searching for competitive form.
Lightly raced (2 career races)
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.