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Southwell

·
Awc Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
Starts in
19h 14min
Flat race · no jumps About 6 furlongs Standard all-weather surface Standard race 8 runners £5,400 prize money E/W: also pays on 2nd or 3rd, at 1/5 odds
Tapeta surface
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score

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3 Flick of An Eye
J. Mitchell · S. Crisford · 2yo · 9st 7lb · Official rating 82
£1 wins £2 · 29 Strong chance
S. Crisford wins 28.6% of their races at this course
Form
29
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 2/1
£1 wins £2 · 29 Strong chance
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.00 back.

How odds work
✓ Trainer wins at this course ✓ Jockey wins at this course ✓ Trainer overall win rate
Won 0 of last 5
Why this score
  • S. Crisford wins 28.6% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
  • J. Mitchell wins 50% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
  • Today's ground is Standard, and that is not ideal. A horse on the wrong ground can run much worse.
TrackLab Insight
Flick of An Eye carries the market's shortest price at 2/1 but has never raced on normal ground and finished fourth most recently at Yarmouth, 39 days ago. The horse has one top-3 finish from two races, but recent form is trending downward (fourth from third), and this is the first time Jack Mitchell has partnered with Simon Crisford.
Never raced on normal ground Lightly raced (2 career races) Market favourite (2/1)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.00 back.

How odds work
Won 0 of last 5
Why this score
  • Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
  • 8 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
  • E. Bethell wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Crystal Dark has finished second in both races so far—narrowly beaten by just 0.8 lengths at Redcar 21 days ago and by 1.8 lengths at Newcastle 49 days ago. The horse is being actively campaigned and gaining experience quickly, but the pattern shows narrow defeats rather than wins, and the jockey-trainer combination has yet to land a winner together.
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.

How odds work
First run (debut)
Why this score
  • This is an 8-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
  • D. Muscutt has won 11.9% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
  • The Standard ground does not suit this horse. The wrong ground can turn a contender into an also-ran.
TrackLab Insight
Sigma makes his racecourse debut for Harry Eustace, a trainer already firing with 24 winners this season, so this horse enters a stable in peak form. The pedigree is built for speed—by Blue Point, a high-level sprinter, and out of a Dalakhani mare—but debut form is always impossible to predict with certainty.
Racecourse debut
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.50 back.

How odds work
Won 0 of last 5
Why this score
  • This is an 8-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
  • O. Orr wins 11.0% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
  • This horse is not suited by Standard ground. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
TrackLab Insight
Al Arraab finished second on debut at Haydock 51 days ago and now steps onto an artificial surface for the first time—that's an unknown variable for a horse that has never raced on normal ground. With only one race under his belt, he remains lightly raced, and the long gap since his last outing means plenty of time has passed since that encouraging debut effort.
Never raced on normal ground Lightly raced (1 career races)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £10.00 back.

How odds work
Won 0 of last 5 Raced here before
Why this score
  • Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
  • G. Boughey wins 16.6% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
  • G. Boughey wins only 19.3% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Hunstanton has raced twice without a win or top-3 finish: ninth at Southwell 30 days ago and fourth at Newcastle 22 days ago, beaten just 1.0 length. The recent fourth-place finish shows some improvement, but the earlier ninth-place finish at this very course and distance raises questions about his readiness at this level.
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.

How odds work
First run (debut)
Why this score
  • An 8-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
  • A. Watson has won 14.9% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
  • A. Watson wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
The Honey Thief makes his racecourse debut here with no form to lean on, but the jockey-trainer pairing of Luke Morris and Archie Watson is among the strongest in the field—54 wins from 500 races together. The pedigree of Wootton Bassett and Kodi Bear mare suggests a horse built for both speed and distance, though debut racing remains unpredictable.
Racecourse debut
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.

How odds work
Wearing tongue strap Won 0 of last 5
Why this score
  • 8 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
  • C. Rodriguez has won 15.1% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
  • This horse is not suited by Standard ground. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
TrackLab Insight
World Star finished third at Pontefract 37 days ago but has never raced on normal ground, and the previous sixth-place finish at Ffos Las (beaten 20.8 lengths) suggests form has been patchy. The long gap since racing and the step up in venue after two races without a win leaves plenty of uncertainty.
Never raced on normal ground Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.

How odds work
First run (debut)
Why this score
  • This is an 8-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
  • J. Candlish wins 11.1% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
  • A 9.8% record at this course for D. Keenan. Some jockeys just do not do well at some courses.
TrackLab Insight
Hot Moonstone makes his racecourse debut here with no form to assess, but carries solid pedigree credentials—sired by Too Darn Hot and out of a Lope De Vega mare—which suggests speed and breeding worth backing. Our model rates this horse higher than the current odds of 25/1 suggest, though a debut is always a wildcard.
Racecourse debut
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance 20–39 Strong chance 12–19 Solid chance 6–11 Could surprise Under 6 Long shot Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.

What these words mean

Underrated horse
We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
Our top pick
The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
TrackLab Score
Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
Ground
How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
Race level (Class)
From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
Group, Grade and Listed
The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
Handicap
The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
Maiden
A race for horses that haven't won yet.
Novice
A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
Chase, hurdle and bumper
Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
Distance (m and f)
m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
Each way
A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
Weight
How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
Jockey claim
An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
Headgear
Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
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