Clipsham Noble

The overall record — 2 wins and 7 places from 28 races, a win rate of roughly 1 in every 14 — tells the story of a horse that competes consistently without often finding the top gear required to win. It races almost exclusively at Class 6, the lowest rung of British racing, and has won just 1 of those 20 races at that level. On paper, that's a 5% win rate, which is modest. But the seven placed finishes show it keeps trying, and the recent form — a win, then a fourth, sandwiched around a run just one day ago — suggests it is in the form of its life right now.

The conditions tell an interesting story. On fast, dry ground, Clipsham Noble has won 2 of its 9 races — that's 22%, which is genuinely strong and means the horse is essentially a different animal when the sun has been out. At distances between a mile and three furlongs and a mile and four furlongs, it has won 1 of 7, a 14% return that marks that trip as its sweet spot. When the ground is right and the distance suits, this is a horse with a real chance.

Charlie Clover's yard at Newmarket has had a productive season with 24 winners, and Clipsham Noble's win this week will have been a welcome addition to that tally. Regular partner Christian Howarth has ridden it in 8 of its races and won once, which is 1 in 8 — not a dominant partnership on paper, but the fact they keep coming back together suggests a working relationship worth watching. With the horse in form, on its favourite ground, and at its best distance, this is one that could add to its tally before the season is out.