Southwell
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Aw Trails Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 Handicap Stakes
Starts in
18h 12min
Tapeta surface
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Finished 1st in the last race, which is a good result. A good last run suggests the horse is in good shape.
- Wins 25% of the time on this type of ground. Some horses run much better on soft or firm ground. This one suits today's ground.
- This horse is not suited by Standard ground. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
TrackLab Insight
Top-rated by a distance with 12lbs in hand over the field, Battle Standard broke through at Southwell just nine days ago—but was then beaten 5 lengths at Wolverhampton yesterday, suggesting the breakthrough win may have come against weaker opposition. At 4/1, the market has already factored in recent success, and this marks the first pairing with jockey Dalton; the profile is one of early promise rather than proven form over Southwell's 1m tapeta surface.
Top rated by 12lbs
Market favourite (4/1)
15
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 4 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- J. Jones wins 40% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Still seeking a first win after seven races, Lili Marleen ran only yesterday and finished a close second at Southwell—yet she is saddled with a draw of 14 in a 14-runner field, the worst possible gate. With just one top-3 finish in her last six runs and asked to turn around a near-miss into a victory while racing from the standside draw, the odds of 5/1 do not account for the difficulty of the task.
Runs again after just 7 days
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Wins 20% of the time on this type of ground. Some horses run much better on soft or firm ground. This one suits today's ground.
- Came home 1st last time out. A good recent run often carries over to the next race.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Crown The Future is the second-highest rated horse in the field (OR 55) and has won both his career victories at Wolverhampton—2 wins from 7 races there. However, this is Southwell, not Wolverhampton, and he finished 5th at Lingfield 67 days ago; the 6/1 price reflects his rating, but it also assumes he can replicate Wolverhampton form on an unfamiliar tapeta surface and after a 26-day gap.
2nd highest rated (OR 55)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Dropped to an easier race today. It is like being the big fish in a smaller pond. The lower standard should suit.
- No wins at this distance yet. We cannot tell if the race is too long, too short or just right.
- A 0% record at this course for W. Muir & Chris Grassick. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Kev has won two of his last three races, including victory at Wolverhampton 25 days ago, and holds a standout record on standard ground—2 wins from 4 starts there (50%). However, he has not won on any other surface and faces a 25-day absence heading into this handicap; the 11/2 odds reflect his recent form but ignore the gaps and ground sensitivity that mark his record as unreliable away from ideal conditions.
Best record on this ground (2 from 4)
3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has run 1 time at this track with no wins yet. Some horses do not take to some courses.
- Racing against weaker rivals than last time. Think of a Premier League team playing in the Championship. The drop in level helps.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
African Spirit has strung together three consecutive top-3 finishes, most recently winning at Wolverhampton 25 days ago, and holds a 25% win rate on standard ground—the exact conditions here. The 6/1 price acknowledges recent form and consistency, though his 14% career win rate and preference for this going mean he offers a realistic chance without exceptional upside.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 12 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- Has run 1 time at this track with no wins yet. Some horses do not take to some courses.
- This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Knightmare is the most experienced runner in the field with 26 races, but he has won just once (4% win rate) and finished 5th at Wolverhampton 25 days ago—his third consecutive fifth-place finish. A critical weakness is his zero-win record on standard ground from 12 attempts, making this surface a clear liability; at 14/1, the price does not adequately reflect how unsuited he is to today's conditions.
Among the more experienced (26 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has run 1 time at this track with no wins yet. Some horses do not take to some courses.
- J. Mitchell has a good 50% record here. Knowing the course is one of a jockey's biggest strengths.
- This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Love You More has won only once in 17 races (6% win rate) and is without a victory for nearly three months, having last won at Lingfield back in July. Recent form shows 4th-6th-6th finishes, and she carries a complete record of zero wins on good or good-to-soft ground; the 12/1 price implies competence, but the data suggests she is outclassed and struggling to find the frame at this level.
Mid-range in the market (12/1)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A prize fund of £3,768 is healthy. When trainers aim at valuable races, they usually have faith in their runner.
- Facing weaker rivals than last time out. When a horse drops to an easier race, it often finds things easier.
- A 2.7% record at this course for D. Shaw. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Al Suil Eile is a Southwell specialist with 5 wins from 23 races there (22%), the highest win rate at this track in the field, and he carries the lowest weight (130lbs) and rating (OR 50) in the race. At 10 years old and 30 days without a run, he holds a realistic tactical advantage; however, the 14/1 price fairly reflects both his age and a three-race sequence of mid-field finishes that suggests he may have lost a yard of pace.
Lowest rated, 3lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Has won over this course and distance
Best record at this trip (4 from 15)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £23.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- J. Owen wins 23.2% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Blue Samuna is underrated and carries a label reflecting that market assessment, though the raw record is sobering: 0 wins and 0 top-3 finishes from 8 races. The three-year-old has shown mid-field consistency (6th-6th-7th-8th-7th-10th in her last six) rather than breakthroughs, and stepping into a handicap at 22/1 after no top-3 finish suggests she has not yet found her level—the underrating label reflects odds rather than likelihood of victory.
Relatively inexperienced (8 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £26.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- A prize fund of £3,768 is healthy. When trainers aim at valuable races, they usually have faith in their runner.
- A 0% record at this course for M. Fenton. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Grand Citadel is a genuine Leicester specialist with 2 wins from 5 races there (40%), but she has never won at any other track and finished 7th at Brighton just nine days ago—an ordinary effort away from her course. At 20/1 and racing on an artificial surface for the first time in this analysis, she lacks the specific form for Southwell, and her experience (25 races) masks a horse that has only found success in one specific location.
Among the more experienced (25 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £26.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 5 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- D. Hogan has won 9.4% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- J. Camacho wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Captain Corelli holds the best win rate in the field at 21% (6 wins from 28 races), but he has not won in six outings and finished 9th at Leicester 33 days ago—his longest spell without a victory. At nine years old and priced at 22/1, the horse shows age-related decline; his record on standard ground is a critical weakness (0 wins from 5), making a revival unlikely here.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 5)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- With £3,768 in prize money, this is a competitive race. The horse has been entered for a reason.
- J. Camacho wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Oscar's Sister has been absent for 98 days—far longer than any other runner—and carries a career record of just 1 win from 24 races (4%). The mare finished 6th at Doncaster before the break and is returning to a race well above her recent level; at 20/1, the market correctly dismisses her chances given the long absence and poor underlying form.
Absent 98 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £19.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 14 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- There is £3,768 in prize money in this race. That attracts good horses, and this one looks to belong among them.
- A 0% record at this course for R. Carr. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Dumfries is by far the most experienced runner (43 races), holds a course-and-distance win, and finished 2nd at Wolverhampton just 25 days ago after a 3rd at Beverley. At a 9% career win rate, he belongs in this race and has proved form over Southwell; however, he is without a win on standard ground in recent memory and carries 131lbs—equal to many rivals—which limits upside at 18/1.
Has won over this course and distance
Most experienced (43 runs, field avg 18)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £41.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 3 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- 2 runs here without a win. That counts against the horse. The track layout may not suit it.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Rogue Desire has won zero times from six races and has finished 7th-5th-5th-7th-5th-3rd in her career—a record of struggle with one freak third-place finish. The filly is stepping up four classes into this handicap after being beaten 93 lengths at Southwell 32 days ago, which is not a profile of capability; at 33/1, she is priced as a no-hoper, and the data supports that assessment completely.
Steps up 4 classes
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.