Southwell
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All-weather Championship Is Back Handicap Stakes
Starts in
18h 42min
Tapeta surface
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 1 win at this race length. Distance matters. If it is too short, the horse cannot use its staying power. If it is too long, the horse gets tired.
- A 23.2% win rate at this course for J. Owen. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- 14 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Captain Parma won here at Southwell back in October, making him one of only two course winners in the field—a valuable edge on an all-weather track where local knowledge counts. However, recent form has been patchy: just one top-3 finish in his last six runs, and he was beaten over 12 lengths at Wolverhampton three weeks ago. At 6%, he wins roughly once every 17 races, which is a thin record to build a case on.
One of few course winners (1 wins here)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- D. Hogan wins 9.4% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- With £4,397 in prize money, this is a competitive race. The horse has been entered for a reason.
- M. Herrington has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Anthropologist brings 36 career races to the field—the third-most experience—but his 8% win rate (roughly 1 in 12) is modest, and he has never won at Southwell in six attempts despite being a course regular. Recent form shows 4th, 8th, and 2nd finishes, but he is best suited by longer trips (1m1f–1m2f) and has poor form on firm ground, both potential concerns for this 7f race on normal conditions.
Among the more experienced (36 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced here 5 times without winning. This course has not suited the horse so far.
- Came home 1st last time out. A good recent run often carries over to the next race.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Finn Ironside is the market favourite at 6/1, fresh off back-to-back wins at Newcastle in his last two starts—an impressive recent run that explains his shorter price. He wins roughly 1 in 6 races (16%) and excels on standard and softer ground, plus he is well suited by the 7f distance. The big drawback: he has never won at Southwell in five attempts, and a high draw in stall 11 does not help given the weak draw bias here.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Market favourite (6/1)
£1 wins £8.50 · 9 Could surprise
1 run here without a win. That counts against the horse
9
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 1 run here without a win. That counts against the horse. The track layout may not suit it.
- W. Knight wins 11.4% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Red Hat Eagle is one of the more successful runners here with four career wins from 30 races (roughly 1 in 7), and he showed recent promise with a top-3 finish at Thirsk 40 days ago. His strength on softer ground and at longer distances is well documented, but he struggles badly on galloping left-handed tracks—a real problem at an all-weather circuit like Southwell. Recent form is unspectacular (5th, 3rd, 2nd), making him hard to back with conviction.
One of the more successful in the field (4 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £11.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced here 2 times without winning. This course has not suited the horse so far.
- With a 10.7% win rate overall, C. Shepherd is one of the more dependable riders.
- A 12.5% record at this course for C. Shepherd. Some jockeys just do not do well at some courses.
TrackLab Insight
Espanita has the best win rate in the field at 20% (1 in 5 from 15 races), and she has won at this distance with a 1-from-3 record over 7f. However, her recent form is troubling: 7th at Newcastle 12 days ago after two narrow seconds, suggesting she may be hitting a patch where the wins have dried up. At just three years old she has time to improve, but momentum has stalled.
Best record at this trip (1 from 3)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 5)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 31 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- A prize fund of £4,397 is healthy. When trainers aim at valuable races, they usually have faith in their runner.
- This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Shaw Park is the most experienced runner (48 career races) and has run an eye-catching three consecutive top-3 finishes at Southwell and Wolverhampton, with back-to-back seconds and thirds. He was 3rd here just a week ago and is back again after only seven days—a tight turnaround that shows the trainer believes he is ready to win. However, he has not won since June 2024 (two years), his 10% career win rate is modest, and he has struggled badly on standard ground (only 1 win from 31 starts), making this a long shot despite the encouraging recent placings.
Most experienced (48 runs, field avg 21)
3 straight top-3 finishes
Runs again after just 7 days
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £12.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 3 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- C. Hills has a good 21.1% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Santiago Boy carries the lightest weight in the field (130lbs) and has shown early promise with two top-3 finishes from nine races, but he has never won. Recent form is concerning: two consecutive 7th-place finishes after a 4th, showing that the step up in class has exposed him. At just three years old with only nine races under his belt, he may be being tested at the wrong level right now.
Carries lowest weight in field
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has not won at this distance before. We do not know if the race length suits the horse.
- This horse runs well on today's ground, with a 33% win rate from 9 runs. The ground makes a big difference in racing.
- C. Clover has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Gladiadora is a course specialist at Southwell with three wins from nine starts (33%)—by far the best record at this venue in the field—and she won here just a week ago before running 9th four days later. Her 16% career win rate (1 in 6) and excellent record on standard ground and at 7f–1m distances suit this race perfectly. The concern is that back-to-back runs (just 9 days apart) when winning and losing so narrowly suggest she may have been in career form a week ago and is now plateauing.
Best record on this ground (3 from 9)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £11.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- J. Mackie wins 9.4% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- O. Orr has a good 13.9% record here. Knowing the course is one of a jockey's biggest strengths.
- 14 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Packetofbiscuits has two wins at Southwell from his 32 career races, giving him the same course edge as Captain Parma. With a 12% win rate (roughly 1 in 8), he's a decent operator, but his recent form is poor: 13th at York 15 days ago, and he struggled even when finishing 6th here a month back. He excels on fast, dry ground but has never won on standard or softer surfaces, which limits his appeal in normal conditions.
One of few course winners (2 wins here)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 5 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- P. Bradley has won 8.6% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- M. Loughnane wins only 5.9% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Ribble Emperor is a serious concern: he has been absent for 146 days (longer than any rival) and has never won in 11 races despite finishing in the top-3 finishes five times. His recent runs before the long break came on Irish tracks, making this return to British racing on all-weather a big unknown. A horse without a win that has been off the track for half a year is asking a lot at 12/1.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Absent 146 days (longest in field)
£1 wins £20 · 6 Could surprise
E. Dunlop wins 25% of their races at this course
6
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- E. Dunlop wins 25% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £19.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Dropped to an easier race today. It is like being the big fish in a smaller pond. The lower standard should suit.
- A prize fund of £4,397 is healthy. When trainers aim at valuable races, they usually have faith in their runner.
- M. Fenton has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Akabusi is another 3-year-old with modest credentials: three wins from 25 races (12% win rate) and recent form that reads 7th, 4th, 3rd, 8th, 11th, 4th—a clear downward trend. He has shown flashes at Newmarket and Yarmouth but is racing at a lower level here. His 33% win rate on fast, dry ground is a bright spot, but the normal conditions and his recent inconsistency make him a risky proposition.
Outsider at 16/1
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 2 runs here without a win. That counts against the horse. The track layout may not suit it.
- K. Stott has won 13.6% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Flash Rascal has won twice from 16 races (12% win rate) but recent form is poor: 6th, 8th, and 7th in his last three starts, and he finished 7th at Southwell just eight weeks ago. His one bright spot is a 33% win rate on fast, dry ground, but he is racing on normal conditions here. Drawing 2 gives him a slight low-draw advantage, but his current trajectory offers little encouragement.
Outsider at 20/1
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £21.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 3 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- A prize fund of £4,397 is healthy. When trainers aim at valuable races, they usually have faith in their runner.
- A 0% record at this course for S. Spencer. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Janora has run only three times and remains without a win, though she did finish 3rd at Newcastle four weeks ago. Her inexperience and recent dip in form (3rd-4th-6th) suggest she is still learning. At 20/1, she represents a longshot play on a young filly that has shown glimpses but has not yet put together a strong enough run to suggest a breakthrough is close.
Lightly raced (3 career races)
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.