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Tomorrow 30 Results 47

Thirsk

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Awaiting result
Flat race · weights set to make it fair Underrated horse: Mirsky +1 About 7 furlongs Good ground High-level race 14 runners £15,702 prize money
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score

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40+ Very strong chance 20–39 Strong chance 12–19 Solid chance 6–11 Could surprise Under 6 Long shot Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
Underrated horse
We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
Our top pick
The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
TrackLab Score
Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
Ground
How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
Race level (Class)
From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
Group, Grade and Listed
The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
Handicap
The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
Maiden
A race for horses that haven't won yet.
Novice
A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
Chase, hurdle and bumper
Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
Distance (m and f)
m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
Each way
A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
Weight
How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
Jockey claim
An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
Headgear
Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
Underrated horse

We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.00 back.

How odds work
Back quickly after its last run Won 0 of last 5 Won here 2 times
Why this score
  • A low win rate on this ground from 5 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
  • D. O'Meara wins 12.1% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
  • 14 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
A major improver who broke through with a Class 2 win at Thirsk in May and followed up at Epsom days later, showing this seven-year-old has genuine quality when things click. The problem is immediate: he ran poorly here 27 days ago (9th) and at York just eight days ago (9th), suggesting he has lost his way entirely since those May victories. A course winner twice over, but current form is dire.
One of few course winners (2 wins here)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.

How odds work
Wearing cheekpieces Won 1 of last 5 Won here 1 time Has won on this ground Won at this distance 4 times
Why this score
  • C. Beasley has a good 9.7% record here. Knowing the course is one of a jockey's biggest strengths.
  • M. Dods wins 9.6% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
  • A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
The editorial selection offers genuine substance—a 40-race veteran with three Class 2 wins and proven course experience at Thirsk (won here in May 2023). Drawing 14 is no advantage at this track, but a recent 3rd at Thirsk just 26 days ago shows he remains competitive at this level, and his York form (3 wins from 15 starts) demonstrates real class when conditions suit. The rating edge over the field is narrow, which explains modest confidence.
One of few course winners (1 wins here)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.50 back.

How odds work
Has won at this course and distance Wearing hood Won 0 of last 5 Won here 1 time Has won on this ground
Why this score
  • R. Varian wins 21.3% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
  • R. Varian wins 19.2% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
  • A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite at 7.5 has won this course and distance before, giving him a genuine edge over rivals who lack that specific experience. However, recent form is unconvincing—12th at Goodwood a month ago represents a poor effort, and he has been sliding in his last three outings (12th, 2nd, 4th). A 18% win rate across 17 races suggests Bobby Bennu is honest but uninspiring, making the short odds hard to justify.
Has won over this course and distance Market favourite (7.5)
Underrated horse

We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £16.00 back.

How odds work
Won 0 of last 5 Likes this ground (wins 33% of runs)
Why this score
  • Wins 33% of the time on this type of ground. Some horses run much better on soft or firm ground. This one suits today's ground.
  • T. Clover has a good 21.4% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
  • A 3yo+ race is not ideal for this horse. The entry rules are a small disadvantage.
TrackLab Insight
Second-highest rated at 98 but in worrying recent form—a 26th at Goodwood four weeks ago suggests something is amiss with this four-year-old. A Class 2 winner at Newmarket back in May, Invictus Gold has the pedigree to compete here, but the absence of a win in his last four races raises serious questions about his current readiness. This is a horse banking entirely on a return to form.
2nd highest rated (OR 98)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £10.00 back.

How odds work
Wearing cheekpieces Back after 62 days off Won 0 of last 5 Won here 1 time
Why this score
  • Has raced 5 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
  • K. Stott has won 13.6% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
  • 14 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
A course winner here and a two-time Class 2 victor who represents solid, intelligent form at 11.5 odds. However, he is coming back from a 104-day absence and struggled badly at Newcastle 62 days ago, finishing 8th. A 50% win rate on good-to-soft ground should suit today's normal conditions, but the lengthy layoff and recent poor run make this an uncomfortable choice despite his pedigree.
One of few course winners (1 wins here)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.

How odds work
Back quickly after its last run Won 0 of last 5 Won here 1 time Has won on this ground
Why this score
  • The Good ground works in this horse's favour. The ground makes a big difference in racing, and today it helps.
  • Finished 3rd in the last race, which is a good result. A good last run suggests the horse is in good shape.
  • T. Easterby wins only 7.7% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Running back after just six days following a 3rd at Chester, this four-year-old is showing the kind of deteriorating form that makes short turnarounds risky—11th and 6th in his two starts before Chester suggest he is struggling. An 18% win rate across 22 races is solid, but recent weeks show a horse out of form, and the quick turnaround adds fatigue concerns. Few runners in this field have tailed off as visibly.
Runs again after just 6 days
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.

How odds work
Wearing cheekpieces Back quickly after its last run Won 0 of last 5 Raced here before
Why this score
  • A low win rate on this ground from 6 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
  • Has run 2 times at this track with no wins yet. Some horses do not take to some courses.
  • 14 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
This four-year-old filly has won just once in 20 races (a Class 2 victory at Beverley in June 2024), and recent form shows only disappointment—5th at York eight days ago, 7th at Doncaster, and a disastrous 22nd at Ascot. The single Class 2 win came on faster ground, and today's normal conditions sit outside her comfort zone. At 15.0 odds, she is being heavily overlooked, which the form suggests is entirely justified.
Mid-range in the market (15.0)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £14.00 back.

How odds work
Won 1 of last 5
Why this score
  • Has yet to win over this distance. It is like asking a sprinter to run a marathon. Distance matters, and this horse has not shown it can win here.
  • A 14.4% win rate at this course for E. Dunlop. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
  • This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
An outsider at 23.0 with form that reads as genuinely mixed across 21 races—three wins from 21 is a modest 14% win rate. Recent signs are marginally encouraging (4th at Ascot, 3rd at Newmarket in his last two), but the Newmarket 3rd came beaten by zero lengths, which is code for an unsatisfactory defeat. At five years old and with this rating, Superposition lacks the profile to make a compelling case here.
Outsider at 23.0
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.

How odds work
Wearing hood Won 0 of last 5 Raced here before Has won on this ground Won at this distance 2 times
Why this score
  • Has won over this distance 2 times. We know the horse can last this far, which removes one big question.
  • Has run 2 times at this track with no wins yet. Some horses do not take to some courses.
  • This is a 14-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
The lowest-rated horse in the field by a margin of 12 pounds, carrying the least weight, and showing form that has collapsed in recent weeks (8th at Redcar 20 days ago, 8th at Ascot). A 21% win rate across 28 races is respectable, and he has excellent form on standard ground (40%), but recent outings suggest he has simply gone backwards. At 21.0 odds and with this trajectory, he appears one of the field's clear outsiders.
Lowest rated, 12lbs below average Carries lowest weight in field
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £19.00 back.

How odds work
Won 0 of last 5 Has won on this ground Won at this distance 2 times
Why this score
  • R. Beckett has won 16.0% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
  • R. Beckett has a good 21.3% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
  • A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Joint top-rated at 99, Palmar Bay is the editorial selection's main rival and could easily reverse the narrow gap between them. The horse showed Class 2 winning form at Chester in August and has a strong record on faster ground (40% win rate on good-to-firm), though three straight runs at the same track before today suggest limited variety lately. Recent Chester form shows promise at 3rd, but the stretch between wins (from August 2025) is notable.
One of the more successful in the field (5 career wins)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £26.00 back.

How odds work
Stepping up to a harder race Back after 190 days off Won 1 of last 5 Won at this distance 1 time
Why this score
  • Has won over this distance 1 time. We know the horse can last this far, which removes one big question.
  • Today's ground is Good, and that suits this horse. Like athletes who prefer one type of surface, horses have favourite ground.
  • A 14-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
A three-year-old making a significant class step up from Class 4 (where he won recently) to Class 2, and with only two career races under his belt, the lack of data makes him a genuine unknown quantity. He has never raced on normal ground before, and a 190-day layoff before a recent 2nd place raises fitness questions despite his eye-catching 50% win rate from just two starts. This represents a big ask for such a lightly raced animal.
Drops 2 classes from usual level Never raced on normal ground Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £23.00 back.

How odds work
Wearing visor Won 1 of last 5 Raced here before Has won on this ground
Why this score
  • The Good ground works in this horse's favour. The ground makes a big difference in racing, and today it helps.
  • This type of ground has not suited the horse: 11 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
  • R. Fell wins only 4.8% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Three consecutive 2nd places (most recently beaten just 0.8L at Beverley 16 days ago) makes this six-year-old look overdue, but he remains winless in 31 races since a Class 1 victory back in October 2022. The consistent placings are encouraging on the surface, but a 13% win rate across 31 career races reveals a horse who finishes close but struggles to get home. At 11.0 odds, he's being backed as much on hope as form.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £67.00 back.

How odds work
Back after 390 days off Won 1 of last 5 Won at this distance 5 times
Why this score
  • Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
  • H. Al Jehani has a good 50% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
  • 390 days without racing. A long break can be a worry, as it takes time to rebuild fitness.
TrackLab Insight
Absent for 390 days (roughly 13 months), but this horse is genuinely dangerous if he returns fit—a 42% career win rate (5 from 12 races) is the best in the field and extraordinary by any standard. The 75% record on standard ground at this track is tailor-made for today's conditions, and his last run before the layoff was a respectable 6th in Class 2 company. The massive question mark is whether the long absence has dulled his edge.
Best record at this trip (5 from 10) Absent 390 days (longest in field) Best career win rate in field (1 in 2)
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.

How odds work
Wearing visor Won 1 of last 5 Raced here before Likes this ground (wins 40% of runs) Won at this distance 4 times
Why this score
  • Handles this ground well, with 40% of its races won on it. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
  • Has won at this distance 4 times before. A horse that has shown it can last the trip is a plus.
  • R. & Peter Fahey has a 7.7% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Strong ground-specific form (50% win rate on both good and standard ground) makes today's normal conditions ideal, and a recent York win shows he can still find the front. However, his last two races tell a different story—16th at York and 11th here (both in recent weeks)—and the 30.0 odds suggest the market has serious doubts about his current ability. A Class 2 winner in April, but form has deteriorated sharply since.
Best record on this ground (2 from 5) 3 straight top-3 finishes
More at Thirsk on Friday ?