Palmar Bay
Palmar Bay is a 5-year-old with genuine quality on fast, dry ground, and a recent win at Chester shows the horse still has plenty to offer despite a long drought since that August 2025 success. The win rate of 5 from 23 races—roughly 1 in 5—puts Palmar Bay firmly in the solid, competitive bracket; this is a horse good enough to beat decent opposition but not consistently enough to be a star. What stands out is the pattern: on firm, fast ground, the win rate climbs to 2 from 5 (40%), and at distances between 5 and 6½ furlongs, it wins 3 from 9 (33%). The trainer
Ralph Beckett's Kimpton yard has been prolific this season with 107 winners, and
Rossa Ryan, who has ridden Palmar Bay to 3 wins from 9 races together (33%), appears to get the best out of the horse—significantly better than its overall win rate.
Based on TrackLab's AI analysis
📊 Key Numbers
Career statistics for this horse
47.8%
Place rate (top 3)
avg ~30%
🔍 Full Analysis
TrackLab's AI-generated assessment based on career data and recent form
The concern is form. Last year's August win at Chester now looks like a career high water mark; Palmar Bay has not won in the last six races, with recent efforts producing a third, an eighth, tenth, and two fourth-place finishes. Just a day ago the horse ran again, suggesting the yard still believe in it, but the dry ground that suits Palmar Bay so well will be crucial to any comeback. At Class 3 level—where it has won 2 from 7—the horse belongs, and if Beckett can time a run on firm turf with Ryan in the saddle, Palmar Bay could well return to the winner's circle. Right now it is a horse in waiting, carrying real ability but needing the right conditions and the right race to prove it has not gone backwards for good.
⚡ Strengths & Risks
What the data says works for and against this horse
✓ What works in their favour
✔ Excellent record on good_to_firm ground: 2 wins from 5 starts (40%)
✔ Excellent record on soft ground: 1 wins from 3 starts (33%)
✔ Well suited by 5f – 6½f distances: 33% win rate
⚠ What to watch out for
⚠ Poor record on good_to_soft ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
⚠ Struggles on LH Galloping tracks: 0 wins from 8 starts
🎯 Where This Horse Thrives
Performance broken down by ground, distance, class, and track type
🌧 Ground Conditions
Good to firm (drying out)
Loves
Standard (all-weather)
Likes
Good to soft (some give)
Avoids
🏅 Competition Level
Class 2 (high-level)
Loves
Class 3 (mid-level)
Likes
🏟 Track Shape
Right-handed, hilly
Loves
Right-handed, tight turns
Loves
Left-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Left-handed, long straights
Avoids
Right-handed, long straights
Avoids
📅 Recent Runs
The last 10 races, most recent first
2 Aug
3rd
Chester
7f – 1m · Good · 10 runners
11 Jul
8th
Chester
7f – 1m · Good · 9 runners
30 May
10th
Chester
7f – 1m · Good · 13 runners
9 May
4th
Haydock Park
7f – 1m · Good · 11 runners
7 Mar
4th
Wolverhampton
7f – 1m · Standard
4 Oct
6th
Redcar
7f – 1m · Good_To_Soft · 11 runners
23 Aug
9th
Goodwood
7f – 1m · Good_To_Firm · 12 runners
3 Aug
🏆 Won
Chester
7f – 1m · Good_To_Firm · 10 runners
14 Jun
6th
York
7f – 1m · Good_To_Firm · 15 runners
1 Jun
🏆 Won
chelmsford
7f – 1m · Standard · 16 runners
🏇 Jockey Partnerships
Every jockey who has ridden this horse, sorted by rides together
🏟 Track Record
Win rate at each course this horse has visited
| Course | Races | Results | Last visited | Win rate |
|---|
| Chester Tight |
4 |
1 win, 1 third, 2 other |
2 Aug |
25% |
| Windsor Sharp |
3 |
1 win, 1 second, 1 other |
12 Aug |
33.3% |
| Salisbury Undulating |
2 |
2 wins |
5 Oct |
100% |
| Haydock Park Galloping |
2 |
1 third, 1 other |
9 May |
0% |
| chelmsford |
1 |
1 win |
1 Jun |
100% |
| Newmarket Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
11 Jul |
0% |
| Wolverhampton Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
7 Mar |
0% |
| Newbury Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
21 Jul |
0% |
| York Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
14 Jun |
0% |
| Ascot Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
4 Oct |
0% |
| Doncaster Galloping |
1 |
1 third |
28 Oct |
0% |
| Goodwood Undulating |
1 |
1 other |
23 Aug |
0% |
| Lingfield Park Sharp |
1 |
1 second |
4 Dec |
0% |
| Redcar Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
4 Oct |
0% |
| Southwell Galloping |
1 |
1 third |
3 Jan |
0% |
| Sandown Park Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
15 Jun |
0% |