Thirsk
·
Caddick Construction EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)
Awaiting result
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
£1 wins £1.63 · 41 Very strong chance
A 33.3% win rate at this course for D. Muscutt
41
Our top pick for this race
Very strong chance
Odds 13/8
£1 wins £1.63 · 41 Very strong chance
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.63 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 33.3% win rate at this course for D. Muscutt. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
- Finishing 2nd last time is encouraging. A horse that finishes well is usually in good shape.
- This is a 15-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Baarberini is the market favourite at 2.72, having run twice and finished second most recently—that's meaningful progress from third on debut. The horse is closest to winning form in this field, though still without a breakthrough win and facing normal ground for the first time.
Never raced on normal ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Market favourite (2.72)
£1 wins £4.50 · 20 Strong chance
A 12.1% overall win rate for D. O'Meara
20
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 12.1% overall win rate for D. O'Meara. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- D. Tudhope has won 15.1% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- A 15-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Astral Crown has raced twice and finished third and fifth most recently—modest form but at least some racecourse experience. This will be its first time on normal ground, making today a proper test, though the drifting odds suggest the market sees little special here.
Never raced on normal ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £7.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- I. Jardine has won 10.4% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- The Good ground works in this horse's favour. The ground makes a big difference in racing, and today it helps.
- 15 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Mr Minz has been consistent at a basic level, running twice and finishing third both times—that's the only horse in the field with two placings to its name. However, 46 days between races and no normal-ground experience mean momentum could be an issue.
Never raced on normal ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £12.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- M. Bell wins 12.8% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- M. Bell has won 12.8% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- 15 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Mr Twig debuted just 14 days ago at Newmarket and finished seventh beaten 10.5 lengths—a telling beating for a first-timer. With only one race and a jockey-trainer combination with a terrible record (1 win from 18), this is among the weakest chances in the field.
Never raced on normal ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £18.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- C. Johnston wins 12.4% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- A 12.4% overall win rate for C. Johnston. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- A 15-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Quintillion debuted 16 days ago and finished seventh, beaten 7.5 lengths—a solid debut by comparison to some, but still nowhere near the placings. The trainer Charlie Johnston's yard is in flying form overall, though that matters little when a horse is still learning.
Never raced on normal ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- R. Menzies wins 10.5% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- An 11.0% overall win rate for O. Orr. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- 15 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
River Glen debuts today by Gleneagles, a sire whose offspring tend to show real racing ability, out of an Acclamation mare suggesting natural speed. However, the trainer-jockey combination has won just 2 from 29 races, so support is limited from the team behind this horse.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £26.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 9.8% overall win rate for M. Dods. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- M. Dods has a good 9.6% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- A 15-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Persian Summer debuts by Persian Force, a flying sprinter and prolific sire of quick two-year-olds, out of an Oasis Dream mare—that pedigree reads sharp and precocious. The major red flag is the jockey-trainer combination with zero wins from 59 races, suggesting this is no hot prospect in their eyes.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £41.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 9.4% overall win rate for T. Easterby. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- With a 10.0% win rate overall, S. Kirrane is one of the more dependable riders.
- This is a 15-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Poppular debuts by Baaeed, one of the highest-class modern sprinters, out of a Shamardal mare—this is the strongest pedigree for speed in the debutants. Tim Easterby's yard is proven at this level (86 wins from 834 races), and the 21-1 odds may be generous for a debut horse with such breeding.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £67.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This horse is happy on Good ground. When the ground suits, a horse can run to its best.
- C. Lee wins 13.3% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- A. Nicholls wins only 6.5% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Elan Valley debuts for Adrian Nicholls, whose yard has been steady with 8 winners this season suggesting competent horsemanship. The pedigree (Massaat-Arcano) is middle-distance oriented rather than sharp for one mile, and this is a trainer-jockey pairing meeting for the first time.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £126.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- M. Dods wins 9.8% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- Today's ground is Good, and that suits this horse. Like athletes who prefer one type of surface, horses have favourite ground.
- Only 13th last time out. That is not what we want to see before today's race.
TrackLab Insight
Frontier Legend is making its racecourse debut with pedigree credentials from Time Test and a Kheleyf mare, but 34 days have passed since the data was collected with no racing activity. This is completely unproven and the long odds reflect genuine uncertainty.
Never raced on normal ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £67.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- B. McHugh has won 8.5% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- The Good ground works in this horse's favour. The ground makes a big difference in racing, and today it helps.
- I. Furtado has a 4.3% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Chaos Inn Court makes its debut with decent enough pedigree (Inns Of Court-Iffraaj), but the trainer-jockey combination is weak with just 2 wins from 28 races. First-time out at 42-1 odds, this has little to recommend it beyond blind hope.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £51.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- M. Dods has a good 9.6% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- M. Dods wins 9.8% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- A 15-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Lion's Den debuts in stall 1 with interesting breeding from Rajasinghe, a precocious sprinter known for quick juveniles—that sire profile matters for a one-mile race where early speed counts. Dods teams can be unpredictable with debuts, but the bloodline at least offers hope.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £81.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- T. Easterby wins 9.4% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- The Good ground works in this horse's favour. The ground makes a big difference in racing, and today it helps.
- This is a 15-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Special Operations has raced twice and is in free fall—fourth at York then tenth at Ripon just 13 days ago, beaten 20 lengths in the most recent outing. This regression form is alarming and suggests the horse is struggling badly at this level.
Never raced on normal ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £151.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- Has run 1 time at this track with no wins yet. Some horses do not take to some courses.
- 15 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Meccapulco debuted 14 days ago at Thirsk (this very track) and finished fifth beaten 23.8 lengths—that is a heavy defeat that tells you this filly is significantly outclassed. Running again so quickly at the same venue offers little reason to believe she's improved.
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £251.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- T. Easterby wins 9.4% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- This horse is happy on Good ground. When the ground suits, a horse can run to its best.
- 15 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Bearing In Time debuted 27 days ago and finished eleventh, beaten 14.8 lengths, never having raced on normal ground before. This will be only the second start for a horse that was well beaten on debut and carries no obvious positive form into today.
Never raced on normal ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)