Newbury
·
Hazell & Jefferies Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)
Starts in
16h 2min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 1 win at this race length. Distance matters. If it is too short, the horse cannot use its staying power. If it is too long, the horse gets tired.
- This is a 20-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Never raced on wet ground and that's a genuine concern here, as is his poor recent form (5th-4th-7th in last three outings). His single career win came on fast, firm ground—the opposite of what Newbury will serve up today—making him a puzzle that doesn't fit this puzzle.
Never raced on wet ground
Market favourite (1/10)
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Racing against weaker rivals than last time. Think of a Premier League team playing in the Championship. The drop in level helps.
- Has raced 3 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- A 4.9% record at this course for D. Evans. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Most experienced horse in the field with 65 races under his belt, but has zero wins on soft ground from three attempts and hasn't won since November on an artificial surface. His Chester specialist tag means nothing here, and recent form (3rd-7th-8th) suggests he's struggling to find the winning formula.
Most experienced (65 runs, field avg 20)
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 6 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- Has had 58 career runs, so it is an experienced racehorse. Experience helps in a tough race.
- 20 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Yet to win on soft ground in six attempts—a red flag for a race run on wet turf—and his recent form is abysmal (9th-14th-11th). Seven years old with only one win in his last 22 races, he looks a spent force rather than a serious contender.
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This horse runs well on today's ground, with a 20% win rate from 10 runs. The ground makes a big difference in racing.
- 5 wins at this race length. Distance matters. If it is too short, the horse cannot use its staying power. If it is too long, the horse gets tired.
- The trainer's horses do not always finish their races. That raises questions about fitness and preparation.
TrackLab Insight
Course specialist at Newbury with four wins from nine here—by far the best record on the day's track—but hasn't raced in 134 days, the longest absence in the field, and last time out finished 11th at this same course. The lay-off is a substantial concern even for a horse with such strong Newbury credentials.
Course specialist (4 wins from 9 here)
Absent 134 days (longest in field)
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- J. Owen wins 17.6% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- A 20-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Despite a respectable 20% career win rate, recent form tells a grimmer story: 9th-5th-7th in the last three outings with the most recent run just 10 days ago at Nottingham ending in 9th, beaten by over 10 lengths. Nothing in his profile suggests he's suddenly going to click on wet ground at a new distance.
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- B. Loughnane has won 16.3% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- The trend in recent results is up. Each run has been better than the one before, which is encouraging.
- A 20-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Never raced on wet ground and ran poorly at Nottingham just 10 days ago (11th), snapping a streak of three top-3 finishes that came on different ground and longer ago. His sole career win came over a longer trip in winter conditions we can't compare to today.
Never raced on wet ground
3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- R. Hannon wins 12.3% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- This is a 20-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
One of the few horses who has won at Newbury before, but his only win here came on good-to-firm ground, not wet; on soft he has zero wins from six attempts. Recent form includes a 5th at this track 35 days ago, and he hasn't shown improvement since that run.
One of few course winners (1 wins here)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has run 2 times at this track with no wins yet. Some horses do not take to some courses.
- A 20% win rate on this ground from 5 runs. Just like people, horses have favourite surfaces. This one likes today's ground.
- This is a 20-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Solid recent form with a win at Beverley 55 days ago and consecutive top-3 finishes, giving him a 23% career win rate, but has never won on good ground and hasn't raced in 37 days. No course record at Newbury and a moderate track record overall make him a middling prospect despite the positive momentum.
Mid-range in the market (1/10)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 7 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- D. Probert wins 8.4% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- A 20-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
A genuine Chester specialist (four wins from 12 races there) with a 44% win rate on good ground, but that's the problem: today's wet conditions and Newbury's profile are foreign to his strengths. Never won on soft ground in seven attempts and current form is poor (5th-5th-6th).
One of the more successful in the field (6 career wins)
5
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A. Balding has won 14.4% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- A 14.4% overall win rate for A. Balding. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- This is a 20-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Only two career races with no wins, hasn't raced in 58 days, and never stepped foot on wet ground—too inexperienced and too lightly raced for a proper assessment. A near-miss second at Lingfield is encouraging but insufficient evidence she belongs in this field.
Never raced on wet ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- O. Tubb wins 26.7% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- Has won 3 times over this distance. That is a good sign the race length suits the horse.
- A 20-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
One of the few course winners at Newbury (1 win from multiple starts), and a steady 14% career win rate, but recent form is terrible (8th-8th-11th in last three) and he has never won on soft ground from 44 career attempts. At nine years old, this looks like a horse past his best.
One of few course winners (1 wins here)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- W. Haggas has a good 19.6% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- A 20-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Recent form shows promise (finished 3rd and 4th in two of last three races) but that 11th place at Yarmouth 38 days ago was a heavy fall, and he has zero wins on good-to-soft ground from three attempts. Only seven career races means limited wet-ground experience to judge from.
Top-3 finishes in 2 of last 3 races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has run 1 time at this track with no wins yet. Some horses do not take to some courses.
- E. Walker wins 12.5% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- 20 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Never raced on wet ground, a critical weakness for a 1m 2f race on turf run at Newbury in wet conditions. Won two of his last six races but the most recent outing was a well-beaten 9th at Southwell 32 days ago, and his Ascot win came on good-to-firm ground three months back.
Never raced on wet ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- A 9.9% overall win rate for R. Clutterbuck. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- G. Arnolda has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Best career win rate in the field at 32% and wins 5 from 11 at this 1m 2f distance, yet his most recent race was a calamitous 18th at York just 14 days ago beaten by over 60 lengths—a clear sign something is amiss. Running poorly at a test that should suit him is deeply concerning.
Best record at this trip (5 from 11)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- Has raced here 2 times without winning. This course has not suited the horse so far.
- A 20-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Excels on heavy ground with two wins from six attempts (33%), and at 1m 1f–1m 2f (30% win rate), the race profile should suit him well. Recent form is mixed (6th-4th-6th) but his obvious preference for the worst conditions makes him a standout contender for wet Newbury.
Outsider at 1/10
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- A 2.9% record at this course for D. Loughnane. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Relatively inexperienced with only six career races and one win, hasn't raced for 55 days, and showed poor form recently (10th at Beverley in a bad-looking effort). Zero wins on good ground suggests he needs softer conditions, but the long absence and limited wet-ground data make him a gamble.
Relatively inexperienced (6 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has run 1 time at this track with no wins yet. Some horses do not take to some courses.
- W. Stone wins 16.7% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- 20 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Just won back-to-back races at Newmarket and Ayr, with the most recent victory two days ago, and boasts a 50% win rate on heavy ground from four attempts—impressive in a wet race. However, zero wins on standard-to-slow ground (her likely going category here) and running just 48 hours after a tough race is punishing even for a hot-form horse.
Runs again after just 2 days
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Finishing 1st last time is encouraging. A horse that finishes well is usually in good shape.
- A 7.9% record at this course for E. Johnson Houghton. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Lowest rated horse by 8lbs, yet owns the best wet-ground record in the field: three wins from five on soft ground (60% win rate). Won at Salisbury just 23 days ago and is the only runner who has actually proven he thrives in exactly these conditions, making him genuinely dangerous despite modest overall credentials.
Lowest rated, 8lbs below average
Best record on this ground (3 from 5)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- S. Osborne has won 12.4% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- An average finish of 4 over the last three races. Finishing near the front this often is a good sign.
- A 20-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Never raced on wet ground, carries the joint-lowest weight which helps at 1m 2f, but hasn't raced for 51 days and recent form deteriorated (3rd-7th-2nd before that). A 20% career win rate on limited experience leaves too many unknowns for a horse untested in the mud.
Carries lowest weight in field
Never raced on wet ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- C. Pike has a good 20% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- K. Fox wins 9.1% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- 20 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Never raced on wet ground, has never won in five attempts despite two placings, and suffered heavy defeats at York and Goodwood recently (12th and 13th). The two near-misses came earlier in his career, and the current trajectory is downward rather than promising.
Never raced on wet ground
3 straight top-3 finishes
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.