Newbury
·
Black Type Accountancy Handicap Stakes
Starts in
16h 37min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Wins 50% of the time on this type of ground. Some horses run much better on soft or firm ground. This one suits today's ground.
- B. Ffrench Davis wins 28.6% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- Has won here 1 time in 5 visits. That record at this course is a good sign.
TrackLab Insight
Mirabeau is the only course winner in the field and has won 2 of 4 races on wet ground — exactly what the forecast offers today. However, his last three runs have been shockingly poor (20th, 11th, 19th), and despite carrying top weight and being favourite at 1/10, he looks vulnerable after a 35-day layoff from a heavy defeat.
Only course winner (1 from 5 here)
Best record on this ground (2 from 4)
3 straight top-3 finishes
Market favourite (1/10)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- No wins at this distance yet. We cannot tell if the race is too long, too short or just right.
- A 10.0% overall win rate for S. James. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- This is a 15-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Super Soldier has never raced on wet ground in his career, a significant concern on a day like this when conditions will test horses unfamiliar with mud. His recent form is disastrous — 21st, 11th, 21st in his last three — and at just 9% career win rate, he looks a poor favourite choice at 1/10.
Never raced on wet ground
3 straight top-3 finishes
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- An 8.4% win rate at this course for D. Probert. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
- 15 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Gaeli won just once in seven career races and has not won since early March — a 5-month drought. Recent form shows a mix of mid-field finishes without any top-3 finishes in his last three, making him an unlikely threat at 1/10 odds despite being rated among the field's better horses.
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
7
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- T. Marquand wins 14.7% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- 15 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Tina's Indian has posted top-3 finishes in 2 of his last 3 races and is ideally suited to this 6-furlong trip, where he wins roughly 1 in 3 attempts. However, his poor record on left-handed galloping tracks (0 wins from 5) is a potential red flag for Newbury, and a 4th-place finish just 8 days ago suggests he may need more time to peak.
Top-3 finishes in 2 of last 3 races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Has raced here 1 time without winning. This course has not suited the horse so far.
- 15 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Uncle Don has won just once in 19 races (5% win rate) and has never won on standard or good-to-firm ground — both risks on a track that may dry slightly as the day progresses. His record on left-handed tracks is also poor (0 wins from 8), making him a poor choice despite knocking on the door with recent near-misses at Ayr and Windsor.
Among the more experienced (19 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 14.7% win rate at this course for J. Doyle. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
- A 12.3% overall win rate for R. Hannon. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- A 15-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Secret Santa brings an impressive 25% career win rate (1 from 4) and just won at Ascot this week, but he has never raced on wet ground and is 169 days away from his previous run — the longest layoff in the field by far. His three finished in the top 3 finishes from four career starts show promise, but the unknown factor of how he handles mud is substantial.
Never raced on wet ground
Absent 169 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- With a 16.3% win rate overall, B. Loughnane is one of the more dependable riders.
- 3 wins at this race length. Distance matters. If it is too short, the horse cannot use its staying power. If it is too long, the horse gets tired.
- R. Teal has a 7.4% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Hucklesbrook has won 3 of 18 races (17% win rate, including a Class 2 victory at York) but has never raced on wet ground and won 2 of his 7 victories specifically on good-to-firm going. Recent form is patchy (6th, 3rd, 10th), and the lack of mud experience is a material concern in this company.
Never raced on wet ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 6 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- A 20% win rate at this course for C. Pike. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- A 15-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Brosay is a consistent performer with 4 wins from 31 races (13% win rate) and has posted top-3 finishes in 2 of his last 3 outings. However, he has zero wins from 6 starts on soft ground — directly contrary to today's conditions — and his last Class 2 win was 13 months ago, making him unlikely to recapture that form.
Top-3 finishes in 2 of last 3 races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- F. Marsh wins 11.6% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- This is a 15-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Big Harry has the best win rate in the field at 40% (2 from 5 races) and won at Ayr just 25 days ago, showing real momentum. His record at this 6-furlong trip is solid (1 win from 3), but a 10th-place finish just yesterday at Doncaster raises questions about whether he was truly ready to run again today or if confidence has taken a dent.
Best record at this trip (1 from 3)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 2)
£1 wins 10p · 7 Could surprise
With 51 races behind it, this horse knows what to expect
7
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- With 51 races behind it, this horse knows what to expect. Experienced runners tend to cope better with pressure.
- This horse runs well on today's ground, with a 43% win rate from 7 runs. The ground makes a big difference in racing.
- H. Main has a 7.7% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Mister Bluebird is one of the more seasoned runners with 7 wins from 51 races and excels on soft ground (3 wins from 7 starts — 43% win rate), making him well-suited to today's conditions. Recent form shows 11th, 3rd, 7th, suggesting he is running competitively, but at 8 years old and with limited pace for sprint specialists, he faces tough company here.
One of the more successful in the field (7 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- With an average finish of 3.7 in recent runs, this horse keeps finishing close to the front. It would not need much luck to win.
- Has won at this distance 7 times before. A horse that has shown it can last the trip is a plus.
- D. Evans has a 4.9% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Supreme King is the most experienced runner with 64 career races and has genuine form on soft and standard-to-slow ground (3 wins from 12 starts combined). However, he struggles on right-handed sharp tracks and has yet to win at Chester or Wolverhampton, and recent form (5th, 3rd, 3rd) suggests he is a step below the leading contenders here.
Most experienced (64 runs, field avg 23)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Finished 1st in the last race, which is a good result. A good last run suggests the horse is in good shape.
- 15 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Proof is a wet-ground specialist who wins roughly 2 of every 5 races on heavy conditions (2 wins from 5 starts), and he won at Haydock on wet ground just 8 days ago. His 21% career win rate is strong, but he struggles markedly on good or good-to-firm ground, so the wet forecast is critical to his chances.
Among the more experienced (19 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 3 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- An average finish of 3.7 over the last three races. Finishing near the front this often is a good sign.
- R. Millman wins only 7.2% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Lyra Lea is the lowest-rated horse at 1/10 odds, which reflects a modest 13% win rate (2 from 15 races) and recent form of mid-field finishes. Her record on soft ground shows 0 wins from 3 starts — a significant weakness on a wet day — and struggles on left-handed tracks (0 wins from 6) make her an unlikely threat at Newbury.
Outsider at 1/10
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- The Soft ground works in this horse's favour. The ground makes a big difference in racing, and today it helps.
- Wins 25% of the time on this type of ground. Some horses run much better on soft or firm ground. This one suits today's ground.
- R. Cook & John Bridger has a 7.4% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Madman is racing class down from his usual level and has hit a purple patch with 3 wins in his last 6 races, including a success at Salisbury just 43 days ago. However, he has zero wins on soft ground (0 from attempts in his profile), which is a serious liability in today's conditions, despite carrying a relatively light weight and showing winning momentum.
Drops 2 classes from usual level
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 22% win rate on this ground from 9 runs. Just like people, horses have favourite surfaces. This one likes today's ground.
- M. Coppins has won 16.7% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- T. Carroll has a 5.2% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Charlie Mason won at Doncaster just yesterday and carries the lowest weight in the field, suggesting the yard are confident. He has a respectable record on soft ground (2 wins from 9 starts — 22%) and fits the conditions, but his 10% career win rate (6 from 59) is moderate, and the immediate turnaround from yesterday's race raises questions about recovery and readiness.
Lowest rated, 10lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.