Newbury
·
Grundon Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes (Div I)
Starts in
12h 30min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Wins 40% of the time on this type of ground. Some horses run much better on soft or firm ground. This one suits today's ground.
- Racing against weaker rivals than last time. Think of a Premier League team playing in the Championship. The drop in level helps.
- Has won here 1 time in 5 visits. That record at this course is a good sign.
TrackLab Insight
The favourite at 1/10 and the only course winner in the field—she has taken this Newbury mile-and-four race before. She thrives on soft ground with 2 wins from 5 starts in the wet, making her a natural fit for today's conditions, though her recent form (8th, 4th, 7th) suggests she is struggling and has not visited the winner's enclosure in a long while.
Has won over this course and distance
Best record on this ground (2 from 5)
Market favourite (1/10)
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 25% win rate on this ground from 4 runs. Just like people, horses have favourite surfaces. This one likes today's ground.
- An official rating of 64 is in this horse's favour. The rating comes from results, and this horse's number looks good.
- Mr J. J. Murphy-Knight wins 4.3% of their races overall. That is below the average for professional jockeys.
TrackLab Insight
A 2-win horse from 19 races with genuine ability on soft ground (1 from 4), and this distance suits him too (1 from 4 at mile-and-three-quarter). Yet recent form is dire: 8th at Bath 16 days ago, a fall and missing runs before that—he appears to be a declining prospect after 18 months of poor form.
Mid-range in the market (1/10)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 8 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- Racing against weaker rivals than last time. Think of a Premier League team playing in the Championship. The drop in level helps.
- The jockey's overall record is not the strongest. A less experienced rider can cost a horse ground.
TrackLab Insight
A 239-day layoff is a concern, but when conditions suit—particularly good-to-soft ground—this horse has shown real teeth with 2 wins from 3 starts. He dislikes soft ground entirely (0 from 8), which is a serious problem in today's wet, and his recent record is too thin to draw much from after such a long absence.
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
£1 wins 10p · 8 Could surprise
Has had 44 career runs, so it is an experienced racehorse
8
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has had 44 career runs, so it is an experienced racehorse. Experience helps in a tough race.
- Facing weaker rivals than last time out. When a horse drops to an easier race, it often finds things easier.
- J. Boyle wins only 7.6% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
A 44-race veteran with modest form (7th, 5th, 5th in her last three) and a 1-in-9 win rate offers little encouragement. She draws high in 13, and recent form suggests she is going backwards; the jockey-trainer pairing shows no wins together in two attempts.
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 5 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- Finishing 2nd last time is encouraging. A horse that finishes well is usually in good shape.
- A 0% career win rate for J. Moore & Josh Moore. That is below the top trainers.
TrackLab Insight
This young 4-year-old broke through for a first win and has finished in the top 3 twice in his last three races (2nd at Brighton just 26 days ago). However, he is a 6% winner across 17 races, dislikes soft ground completely (0 from 5), and that single breakthrough win is his only success—limiting confidence that he can strike again in wet conditions.
Top-3 finishes in 2 of last 3 races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 31.8% overall win rate for Mr H. Callan. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- Mr H. Callan wins 50% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- 13 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
A promising 4-year-old who broke through at Chepstow in June and has now finished top 3 in two of his last three races, including a narrow 2nd at Yarmouth just 12 days ago. He pairs well with trainer James Owen (5 wins together in 5 races), but he has never won at this distance and prefers longer trips—a real question mark here.
Top-3 finishes in 2 of last 3 races
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Racing against weaker rivals than last time. Think of a Premier League team playing in the Championship. The drop in level helps.
- J. S. Moore has a 2.2% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced horse in the field (53 races), Raintown has won over this course and distance, but he has not won at Newbury itself in three recent attempts and has no wins on soft ground (0 from unrecorded starts). His last run was 7th at this track 36 days ago, suggesting he may be struggling in current company.
Has won over this course and distance
Most experienced (53 runs, field avg 23)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Dropped to an easier race today. It is like being the big fish in a smaller pond. The lower standard should suit.
- A 5.3% record at this course for B. Llewellyn. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
The standout on pure numbers: a 20% career win rate (best in the field at roughly 1 win every 5 races) and 2 wins from 6 at this distance. But he has not won since an earlier victory, recent form shows three consecutive poor performances (8th, 6th, 5th), and he excels over two miles or more—this mile-and-four may be too short for his best work.
Best record at this trip (2 from 6)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 5)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- F. Bramley has won 14.8% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- No wins at this distance yet. We cannot tell if the race is too long, too short or just right.
- This is a 13-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
A concern: Chambers has never raced on wet ground and sits with an 8% win rate (1 from 13 races). He was last out 85 days ago and won at Nottingham in July, but has struggled since then—and throwing an untested horse onto soft ground in a competitive field is a gamble.
Never raced on wet ground
10
Fair Dinkum
£1 wins 10p · 8 Could surprise
Mr L. Murphy has won 19.4% of their races in their career
8
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Mr L. Murphy has won 19.4% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- A 0% win rate at this course for Mr L. Murphy. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
- 13 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
An experienced horse (37 races) with a recent Class 2 win at Bath, but soft ground is untested in his record and he shows no wins on standard-to-slow surfaces. Recent form is flat (4th, 5th, 4th), and he has never won on a left-handed galloping track like Newbury—a clear disadvantage.
Among the more experienced (37 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An 18.8% overall win rate for O. Murphy. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- Mr J. King wins 28.6% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- O. Murphy has a 6.7% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
A massive 392-day absence is a glaring red flag; he has not raced since finishing 3rd at Market Rasen over a year ago. At 8 years old with just 2 wins from 34 races (6% win rate) and returning from such a long break, he faces a mountain to climb in a competitive field.
Absent 392 days (longest in field)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Rated 13.2 points above the average for this race. On paper, this horse is one of the better runners.
- Miss T. Hoppeler wins 0% of their races overall. That is below the average for professional jockeys.
TrackLab Insight
The lowest-rated horse by 13 pounds and carrying the lightest weight, this 4-year-old has just one win from 10 races and her last two runs show 7th-place finishes at Southwell and Brighton. Recent form is poor and she has no soft-ground experience on record to suggest she will thrive today.
Lowest rated, 13lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- There is little recent data for Miss A. Crowley. Without enough rides, it is hard to judge their form.
TrackLab Insight
A 4-year-old stepping up two classes after 171 days away from the track, with zero wins from 8 races and a troubling recent pattern of finishing 3rd, 6th, 10th. Returning after such a layoff to race on soft ground in a stronger field offers little hope.
Steps up 2 classes
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.