Newbury
·
St Simon Stakes (Group 3)
Starts in
13h 47min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 5/4
£1 wins £1.25 · 32 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £2.25 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 26.2% win rate at this course for C. Appleby. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
The market favourite at 5/4 comes here on an extraordinary run: three straight wins and a second-place finish in his last four outings, which works out to a career win rate of roughly 3 in 4 races. He's dropping two classes from his usual level, which is a significant step down, and at four years old he's showing the kind of consistency that separates genuine talent from the rest. The concern is that his Class 1 experience is limited to one win 386 days ago, so he'll need to prove he belongs at this level.
Drops 2 classes from usual level
Market favourite (5/4)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has not won at this distance before. We do not know if the race length suits the horse.
- 9 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- A 3.2% record at this course for J. Osborne. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
White Birch is top-rated by 5lbs and carries a 36% win rate across 14 races, with a particularly impressive 67% win rate on heavy ground—exactly the conditions he'll face. The six-year-old won here and at his other regular venues, so there's evidence he handles Newbury competently. His main concern is a 56-day absence and zero wins from four starts on good ground, suggesting he may need the wet underfoot to be truly effective; combined with his recent form showing mostly minor placings, he looks more like a place possibility than a winning contender.
Top rated by 5lbs
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- T. Marquand wins 14.7% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- Has won 3 times over this distance. That is a good sign the race length suits the horse.
TrackLab Insight
The only course winner here with two victories from eight runs at Newbury, and he's built on that pedigree with three straight top-3 finishes including a win at Ascot just 21 days ago. At nine years old, Al Aasy is doing something remarkable: winning roughly two in every five races at the absolute top level, with seven of his nine career wins coming in Class 1 competition. His 67% win rate on good-to-soft ground makes him a natural fit for these wet conditions.
Only course winner (2 from 8 here)
3 straight top-3 finishes
Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £9.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- S. James wins 10.0% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- This is a 9-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- A prize fund of £56,710 suggests this is not a top race. The prize money tends to reflect the quality of the runners.
TrackLab Insight
Al Qareem is the most battle-hardened horse in this field with 32 career races, and he carries a perfect 3-from-3 record on soft ground—exactly what you want on a wet Newbury surface. His 38% overall win rate and 83% win rate at the 1m3f-1m4f distance make him a proven operator, but there's a red flag: he's been absent for 133 days, the longest break of any runner here, and his last two outings before that were well-beaten finishes. His credentials on the ground and trip are undeniable, but questions linger over whether his break has blunted his edge.
Best record on this ground (3 from 3)
Best record at this trip (6 from 9)
Most experienced (32 runs, field avg 15)
Absent 133 days (longest in field)
£1 wins £11 · 10 Could surprise
An 8.4% win rate at this course for D. Probert
10
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £12.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An 8.4% win rate at this course for D. Probert. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
- A 9-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- H. Palmer has not had many runners lately, so their recent form is unclear.
TrackLab Insight
Grey Cuban has momentum with three straight top-3 finishes capped by a Class 2 victory at York just 14 days ago, and he carries the underrated label, suggesting the market price underestimates his chances here. He's well-suited to the 1m3f-1m4f trip with a 43% win rate at that distance, but there's a concrete problem: he has zero wins from three starts on heavy ground, and this race is being run on wet, muddy conditions. Drawing 1 on the low side is neutral at best, and his track record on similar ground simply doesn't support a confident view.
3 straight top-3 finishes
£1 wins £14 · 8 Could surprise
A. Balding wins 11.1% of their races at this course
8
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A. Balding wins 11.1% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- A. Balding wins 14.4% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- The trainer's horses do not always finish their races. That raises questions about fitness and preparation.
TrackLab Insight
Royal Playwright won at Goodwood in September then finished second by just 0.3L at Ascot 21 days ago, showing he can run well in competitive company even if his overall 14% win rate from 14 races is modest. At 14/1, he's one of the more experienced runners here, but he shows a clear weakness on good-to-firm ground (0 wins from 4) and struggles on right-handed galloping tracks (0 wins from 5), which makes Newbury a problematic venue. His recent form suggests he's capable on the day, but the track profile works against him.
Among the more experienced (14 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £23.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 26.2% win rate at this course for C. Appleby. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
- A 26.1% overall win rate for C. Appleby. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- C. Appleby has a 26.2% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
By The Book drops two classes after finishing fourth at Ascot 21 days ago, carrying a 33% win rate from nine races with eight top-3 finishes that suggest genuine consistency. The problem is stark: he has never raced on wet ground, and that's exactly what he'll face here. His recent record shows a pattern of minor placings rather than wins, and stepping into unfamiliar conditions at a class level that should suit him better leaves considerable uncertainty.
Drops 2 classes from usual level
Never raced on wet ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 12.3% overall win rate for C. Johnston. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- With an 11.7% win rate overall, D. Egan is one of the more dependable riders.
- Jumping is a weakness. In jumps racing, poor jumping loses ground and confidence.
TrackLab Insight
Evanesco is just three years old and drops two classes after a near-miss at Newmarket 21 days ago, finishing second by just 0.2L. He won a Class 2 race 64 days ago and carries a 27% win rate from 11 races, so the class drop should help him. However, he has never raced on wet ground, and his form outside that most recent second place tells a muddier story: fifth, first, third, fifth, and seventh reads as inconsistent at best. The unknown factor of how he'll handle wet conditions at an unfamiliar class level is significant.
Drops 2 classes from usual level
Never raced on wet ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £51.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- A 14.8% overall win rate for F. Bramley. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- K. Shoemark has an 8.9% win rate at this course. They have not had much luck here. Knowing the track helps, and that is missing.
TrackLab Insight
Rebel Rocker just broke through 42 days ago with a Class 2 win on the all-weather at Kempton, but before that he had four races without success and finished eighth most recently at Doncaster. At three years old he's the least experienced runner here with just five career races total and a 20% win rate, meaning he has the least evidence of reliable ability. His one win came on artificial surface in dry conditions, making the transition to a turf course with wet ground a significant step into the unknown, and he's saddled with a new jockey-trainer combination that has no history together.
Relatively inexperienced (5 career races)
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.