Newbury
·
Grundon Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes (Div II)
Starts in
13h 7min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Facing weaker rivals than last time out. When a horse drops to an easier race, it often finds things easier.
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 3 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- G. Baker has a 5% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Seven-year-old with zero wins from nine races and recent form of 12th, 10th, and 14th — this is a horse that has had every opportunity to find a winner but simply hasn't. Being favourite at 1/10 despite that record is a market anomaly, but the reality is Alcaraz is a steady minor-place finisher, not a winning proposition.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Market favourite (1/10)
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 3 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- An experienced horse with 38 career runs. Experienced horses tend to be steadier and less likely to run badly.
- I. Williams has a 7.4% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Six wins from 38 races and one of just two course winners in the field, but wet ground is a concrete weakness: zero wins on soft, zero on standard ground. His 16% win rate was built on good and good-to-firm ground — neither available today — leaving this reliable campaigner severely compromised.
One of few course winners (1 wins here)
£1 wins 10p · 9 Could surprise
Mr L. Murphy has won 19.4% of their races in their career
9
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Mr L. Murphy has won 19.4% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- A low win rate on this ground from 4 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
Nine-year-old with eight wins from thirty races and a 27% win rate — one of the stronger records here — plus a course win at Newbury on record. However, he has zero wins on soft ground from four attempts and comes off an agonising second by 0.5L at Bath sixteen days ago; wet conditions work against his profile.
One of few course winners (1 wins here)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Wins 22% of the time on this type of ground. Some horses run much better on soft or firm ground. This one suits today's ground.
- Has yet to win over this distance. It is like asking a sprinter to run a marathon. Distance matters, and this horse has not shown it can win here.
- A 0% record at this course for D. Cunha. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
This is the one horse in the field with genuine wet-ground credentials: two wins from nine on soft ground (22%), and a recent Class 2 win at Nottingham shows he can show up when needed. At 6 years old with six wins from 41 races, he is equipped for these conditions unlike most rivals here.
Best record on this ground (2 from 9)
8
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- Finishing 3rd last time is encouraging. A horse that finishes well is usually in good shape.
- J. Moore & Josh Moore has a 0% overall win rate, which is on the low side. That may mean the horse is not at its best.
TrackLab Insight
Won twice from twelve races and comes here off a 54-day break with a top-3 finish at Epsom, but this is a six-year-old that abhors the conditions: zero wins on standard ground and zero wins at right-handed galloping tracks, which describes Newbury entirely. The wet turf here plays directly against his two-win profile, which came on faster ground.
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Dropped to an easier race today. It is like being the big fish in a smaller pond. The lower standard should suit.
- Its average finish over the last three runs is 3.3. That is steady. Horses that finish near the front often do so again.
- H. C Knight has a 6.1% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
One win from nine races in eighteen months, but here's the critical flaw: this seven-year-old has never raced on wet ground in his career, and comes here on a surface that doesn't suit his profile. His one success came in March 2025 on better conditions, and recent form shows 6th at Bath just 25 days ago.
Never raced on wet ground
Unfancied in the market despite a high rating
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Miss S. Dorricott wins 50% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- Miss S. Dorricott wins 100% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- A 2.2% record at this course for J. S. Moore. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Best win rate in the field at 30% from twenty races, and she has the distance form (one win from three at 1m4f), but like several rivals here, she has never raced on wet ground and comes off the back of two poor runs at Bath. Breaking her maiden on this surface would be a significant ask.
Never raced on wet ground
Best record at this trip (1 from 3)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 3)
£1 wins 10p · 8 Could surprise
With 57 races behind it, this horse knows what to expect
8
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- With 57 races behind it, this horse knows what to expect. Experienced runners tend to cope better with pressure.
- A. Watson has won 14.9% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- 12 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Eight-year-old with fifty-eight races and nine wins — the most experienced runner here — but he has never won on wet ground in his entire career and has zero wins on standard ground from twelve attempts. At 8, this is a horse that has shown what it can do, and mud simply isn't part of that story.
Never raced on wet ground
Most experienced (58 runs, field avg 23)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Dropped to an easier race today. It is like being the big fish in a smaller pond. The lower standard should suit.
- Mr S. Walker has won 16% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- A 4.9% record at this course for M. Madgwick. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Four-year-old with zero wins from ten races, never having set foot on wet ground. Recent form of 6th, 3rd, and 6th shows she is competitive in her grade, but she remains winless and unproven in moisture — a dangerous combination at 1/10 odds.
Never raced on wet ground
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Came home 1st last time out. A good recent run often carries over to the next race.
- 12 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Just won at Southwell eighteen days ago — his first victory in nearly two years from twenty races — but he comes here as a 5% win-rate horse carrying bottom weight and no proven pattern on wet ground. His sole career win came at Windsor on 14 October 2024; recent form is inconsistent.
Top-3 finishes in 2 of last 3 races
8
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- Mr R. Birkett has a good 27.3% record here. Knowing the course is one of a jockey's biggest strengths.
- A 4.4% record at this course for S. Williams. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Four-year-old with just ten career races and one win, making him the least experienced runner here. He won at Yarmouth eighty days ago but has managed only a 4th at Nottingham and 5th at Kempton since; wet ground at 1m4f is uncharted territory for a horse learning his trade.
Relatively inexperienced (10 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- A prize fund of £5,464 is healthy. When trainers aim at valuable races, they usually have faith in their runner.
- A 5.3% record at this course for B. Llewellyn. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Lowest-rated and lightest-weighted runner, with two wins from twenty-seven races both coming at his spiritual home, Wolverhampton. Recent form shows 2nd at Southwell eighteen days ago, but he has zero wins on good ground and is yet to prove himself on a fast-draining turf track like Newbury — even in the wet.
Lowest rated, 9lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
3 straight top-3 finishes
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.