Newbury
·
Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3)
Starts in
14h 22min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 5/2
£1 wins £2.50 · 23 Strong chance
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £3.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 12.2% overall win rate for K. R. Burke. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- Finished 1st in the last race, which is a good result. A good last run suggests the horse is in good shape.
- K. R. Burke has an 8.8% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
Golden Souk won on debut at Redcar 31 days ago and is the market favourite at 5/2, but has never raced on wet ground—a significant blank against rivals who have done so. A one-race record tells you almost nothing about what happens when conditions change, so the price reflects hope rather than evidence.
Never raced on wet ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Market favourite (5/2)
23
Underrated horse
We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 19.7% overall win rate for W. Haggas. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- T. Marquand wins 14.7% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- Today's race is over 7f. The distance may not be ideal. If it does not suit, the horse has to fight the race.
TrackLab Insight
Mezzo Forte is labelled underrated and has won 1 of 3 races with two other top-3 finishes, showing concrete racecourse ability. However, the horse has never raced on wet ground and the most recent outing was a 3rd at Newmarket 30 days ago, so form is solid but not recent.
Never raced on wet ground
Lightly raced (3 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.50 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 14.4% overall win rate for A. Balding. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- Came home 1st last time out. A good recent run often carries over to the next race.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
Nakila Sun has won 2 of 4 races and finished in the top 3 in the last three outings, including a recent win at York 15 days ago—one of the most active and successful horses in the field. However, the horse has never raced on wet ground, and that's a meaningful gap in its racing CV for a race run on heavy turf.
Never raced on wet ground
3 straight top-3 finishes
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £8.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- C. Appleby wins 26.2% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- C. Appleby wins 26.1% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
TrackLab Insight
Jassas is top-rated by 9lbs and has won 2 of 3 races with a place finish in the other, showing the kind of consistency that stands out—two wins in three races is genuinely impressive. The most recent run was a 5th at Newmarket 14 days ago, which breaks the pattern and suggests the step up to this company may be testing this colt's limits.
Top rated by 9lbs
Lightly raced (3 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An 8.4% win rate at this course for D. Probert. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
- A 14.4% overall win rate for H. Palmer. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- A 9.5% record at this course for H. Palmer. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Twelve Bars has won 1 of 2 races with a 2nd-place finish in the other, and the win came at Kempton just 17 days ago. The horse is lightly raced with no wet-ground experience, making it a genuine unknown at Newbury on this surface.
Never raced on wet ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
£1 wins £12 · 6 Could surprise
C. Bishop has won 9.9% of their races in their career
6
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £13.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- C. Bishop has won 9.9% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- E. Johnson Houghton has won 10.7% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- A 7.9% record at this course for E. Johnson Houghton. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Flying Pirate has won 2 of 4 races and finished in the money in all outings—a 50% win rate that stands out in this field. The horse won at Haydock just two weeks ago but finished 4th at Newbury 36 days ago, so it knows this track and the wet ground here will be a fresh test of that early promise.
One of the more successful in the field (2 career wins)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £17.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- A 16.1% overall win rate for R. Beckett. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- A prize fund of £42,532 suggests this is not a top race. The prize money tends to reflect the quality of the runners.
TrackLab Insight
Ghost Raider won on debut at Ffos Las 27 days ago but has only raced twice, so there is very limited evidence to assess. The 4th-place finish at York between those two races suggests the debut win may have flattered; wet ground at Newbury is uncharted territory for this colt.
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £15.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 9.8% overall win rate for G. Wood. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- A 9.6% overall win rate for R. Millman. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- R. Millman wins only 7.2% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
Midgham Man has won 2 of 5 races and finished in the top 3 in three of the last five outings, including a win at Newmarket just 14 days ago. The horse has never raced on wet ground and comes from a yard with a modest record, making this a step into the unknown in testing conditions.
Never raced on wet ground
3 straight top-3 finishes
Best career win rate in field (1 in 2)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £17.00 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- H. Eustace has a good 13.5% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- 9 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- A 7f race raises questions. If it is too long or too short for the horse, that hurts its chances.
TrackLab Insight
Green Sovereign has won just 1 of 5 races and has not run in 56 days, making recent form hard to judge. The horse has never raced on wet ground and its last three outings produced a 4th, 7th and 8th, so there is limited encouragement here.
Never raced on wet ground
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.