Newbury
·
Ebf Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)
Starts in
15h 32min
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 12.3% overall win rate for R. Hannon. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- This is an 8-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- Not rated highly by the official rater. The rating reflects what the horse has done so far, and it is modest.
TrackLab Insight
Making her racecourse debut for Richard Hannon with serious speed bred into her pedigree—Advertise sire and American Pharoah dam suggest this horse has been backed for a reason. Unproven on track but the market's 1/10 odds reflect confidence in the yard's judgment on a horse stepping out for the first time.
Racecourse debut
Market favourite (1/10)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 14.4% overall win rate for A. Balding. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- An 8-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- The official rating suggests this horse has work to do. Lower-rated horses need to improve to win.
TrackLab Insight
Andrew Balding's debut runner carries solid credentials with Study Of Man and Mr Greeley bloodlines, but like most first-time runners here, everything hinges on pedigree rather than track evidence. The jockey-trainer combo has a strong win rate (65 from 368 races), but this horse is a complete unknown on the track.
Racecourse debut
£1 wins 10p · 13 Solid chance
This is an 8-runner race, and the size suits this horse
13
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This is an 8-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- With an 11.4% win rate overall, D. Probert is one of the more dependable riders.
- The official rating suggests this horse has work to do. Lower-rated horses need to improve to win.
TrackLab Insight
Racecourse debut for Jack Channon with a pedigree stacked on both sides—Golden Horn (a Group 1 winner himself) sire and Nathaniel dam suggest this is a horse the yard believes in. No track record to study, so you're betting on breeding and the yard's reputation on a complete unknown.
Racecourse debut
£1 wins 10p · 13 Solid chance
E. Johnson Houghton has won 10.7% of their races in their career
13
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- E. Johnson Houghton has won 10.7% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- This is an 8-runner race, and the size suits this horse. Some horses prefer a small field with less traffic. Others do well in a crowd.
- E. Johnson Houghton has a 7.9% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
TrackLab Insight
One race in the book: a third-place finish at Bath 25 days ago, and now back quickly for Eve Johnson Houghton's yard, which has fired out 42 winners this season. Never tested on wet ground before, and with just one piece of form to go on, there's limited evidence to build a case.
Never raced on wet ground
Lightly raced (1 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- An 8-runner race works well for this horse. The number of runners changes the pace and how much room a horse has.
- W. Haggas wins 19.7% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- The official rating suggests this horse has work to do. Lower-rated horses need to improve to win.
TrackLab Insight
William Haggas (288 wins from 1343 races with his jockey) sends out a debut runner with impeccable breeding—Lope De Vega sire (Group 1 winner, siring multiple winners) and Montjeu dam create a bloodline built for pace. Unproven on track but this is the kind of pedigree Haggas typically runs out with a plan.
Racecourse debut
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- 8 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- R. Beckett wins only 12.1% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
The most seasoned runner in the field with 21 races under her belt, Star Rose has won just once (a 5% win rate) but has picked up three other top-3 finishes—most recently third at Salisbury 23 days ago. The long layoff (234 days away mid-season) and zero wins on good-to-firm ground are concerns, but she's the only runner here with multiple race experiences to assess.
Most experienced (21 runs, field avg 8)
Absent 234 days (longest in field)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 21)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 8 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- O. Cole wins 10.9% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- An 8.9% record at this course for K. Shoemark. Some jockeys just do not do well at some courses.
TrackLab Insight
Two races in and no wins or top-3 finishes yet—the most recent effort saw her finish fifth just 17 days ago after a tenth-place run before that. This is the only runner with actual track experience, but the form is soft and she's never raced on wet ground, which could be a factor today.
Never raced on wet ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 8 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- F. Bramley wins 14.8% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- The official rating suggests this horse has work to do. Lower-rated horses need to improve to win.
TrackLab Insight
Faye Bramley's debut runner has speed and athleticism in the bloodlines through Sergei Prokofiev and Mastercraftsman, but stepping onto the racecourse for the first time with no track record. The jockey-trainer combo has yet to record a win together, offering limited form guide.
Racecourse debut
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.