Newbury
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Fitzdares Handicap Stakes (Div I) (gbbplus Race)
Awaiting result
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
Why this score
- This horse runs well on today's ground, with a 33% win rate from 3 runs. The ground makes a big difference in racing.
- A 10.0% win rate at this course for R. Ryan. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
- 30 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Steps up two classes off the back of a 50-day absence and deeply poor form, having won just once in 8 career races at a 12% rate. His recent sequence at Goodwood, Ascot and Newmarket shows he's struggling in mid-field races, making a step up in this bigger handicap an enormous ask.
Steps up 2 classes
Why this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 7 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- Has won over this distance 2 times. We know the horse can last this far, which removes one big question.
- This is a 30-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
On fire with three consecutive victories in the last six weeks including a win at Brighton 25 days ago, and he's built a superb 38% win rate on fast, dry ground over longer trips. The major concern is his complete inability on good ground (0 wins from 7 starts) and struggles on right-handed galloping tracks—both factors that could apply here.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Why this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 6 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- 2 wins at this race length. Distance matters. If it is too short, the horse cannot use its staying power. If it is too long, the horse gets tired.
- A 30-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Has a legitimate record at this distance with 2 wins from 8 starts there, but his recent form reads as deeply underwhelming with an eighth and a fifth in his last two outings. His 17% career win rate is respectable, though he's running in a bit of a trough right now and clearly struggles on sharp right-handed tracks.
Best record at this trip (2 from 8)
Why this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- Has run 1 time at this track with no wins yet. Some horses do not take to some courses.
- This is a 30-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Three straight top-three finishes with two wins from seven starts gives him a 29% win rate that matches the best in the field, and he's been particularly sharp on fast, dry ground with a 67% record there. A second-place at Newbury just 23 days ago on similar ground is a huge positive reference for today.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Why this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- S. Levey wins 10.1% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- This is a 30-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
The longest absence is a real problem: he hasn't raced since an 11th-place finish at Ascot 133 days ago, which is more than four months away. His 23% win rate is decent and he likes this ground, but the layoff is a significant concern in a 30-runner field with so many well-raced rivals.
Among the more experienced (13 career races)
Why this score
- W. Buick has won 19.2% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- A 21.5% overall win rate for J. & Thady Gosden. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- A 30-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Never raced on normal ground before makes this his unknown ground, though his 20% win rate and three straight top-three finishes suggest he's a reliable performer. A breakthrough win at Newcastle just 15 days ago shows he's in the right frame of mind, but this ground is an experiment rather than a strength.
Never raced on normal ground
3 straight top-3 finishes
Why this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 4 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- Recent results are getting better. The horse is finishing higher up. A horse that is improving often keeps improving.
- A 30-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Three top-three finishes in his first three outings bode well, but a shocking 13th-place finish at Goodwood 50 days ago after form reads like a significant dip in confidence. His 23% win rate is solid enough, though the form is too inconsistent and he can't win on good ground, which could be a factor on normal going.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Why this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Its average finish over the last three runs is 4. That is steady. Horses that finish near the front often do so again.
- This is a 30-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Only three career races with one win and one place gives a 33% win rate that's genuinely promising, and the breakthrough victory at Newmarket 63 days ago shows he's figured out how to win. The concern is the most recent sixth at Newbury—the same track, 23 days ago—suggests he may have regressed from that good form.
Lightly raced (3 career races)
Why this score
- Finishing 1st last time is encouraging. A horse that finishes well is usually in good shape.
- An 11.7% overall win rate for F. Marsh. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- 30 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Exceptional 50% win rate from just 4 races is the standout in the field—he's won 2 of 4 starts with 2 places alongside them, suggesting genuine class. However, the last outing was 132 days ago at Haydock, and a fifth at Sandown 97 days ago shows he can be beaten; the layoff is the only query on an otherwise compelling profile.
Placed in 2 of last 3 races
Why this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Has raced here 2 times without winning. This course has not suited the horse so far.
- A 30-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Placed in 2 of his last 3 races including a win at Epsom 64 days ago shows he's capable on his day, though his 10% win rate from 10 starts is modest. The recent 4th at Epsom suggests he's competitive right now, but he needs to convert his minor placings into wins more often.
Placed in 2 of last 3 races
Why this score
- P. Dobbs wins 8.6% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- Finished 1st in the last race, which is a good result. A good last run suggests the horse is in good shape.
- A 30-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Just won at Sandown 76 days ago for his only victory from 5 starts, though the layoff since then is a concern heading into such a competitive race. His 20% win rate suggests he can be competitive at his level, and he likes this trip on firm ground, but he can't win on good ground which may limit options if conditions shift.
Relatively inexperienced (5 career races)
Why this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- B. Ffrench Davis wins 28.6% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- A 30-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Running back after just 2 days from a 6th place at Sandown, but this one has never won or placed from 5 races—he simply doesn't have the form to merit confidence. At age 3 with a 0% record across 5 starts, he's searching for his first breakthrough in a field full of winners.
Runs again after just 2 days
Why this score
- No wins at this distance yet. We cannot tell if the race is too long, too short or just right.
- E. Greatrex wins 12.4% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- 30 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
Placed in 2 of his last 3 races including a win at Chester 47 days ago shows recent momentum, though his 10% win rate from 10 starts is modest overall. He's suited to this trip on good ground, but recent 8th at Beverley is underwhelming and he struggles on left-handed galloping tracks.
Placed in 2 of last 3 races
Why this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 3 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- Has had 52 career runs, so it is an experienced racehorse. Experience helps in a tough race.
- J. S. Moore wins only 2.2% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
TrackLab Insight
The most experienced horse here at 52 career races with 9 wins (17% rate) and carrying the lowest weight in the field—a significant advantage in a handicap. Three straight top-three finishes including a 2nd at Newbury just 35 days ago on the same track is a brilliant reference, though his form only works on firm ground and he struggles on slower surfaces.
Lowest rated, 11lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Most experienced (52 runs, field avg 12)
3 straight top-3 finishes
Why this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Not enough recent rides for The jockey to judge their form. That is not good or bad news.
TrackLab Insight
Best win rate in the field at 29% with two victories in her last six races, and she's particularly sharp on fast, dry ground where she's won half her starts. Just one outing back at Newbury four weeks ago gives her a clear course reference, though that fifth-place finish suggests she needs to bounce back from a below-par effort.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
Why this score
- There is little recent data for The jockey. Without enough rides, it is hard to judge their form.
TrackLab Insight
Turbo-charged form with a win at Doncaster just a week ago and three straight top-three finishes—he's clearly in a purple patch right now despite the short turnaround. The danger is running back within seven days; while he's well-suited to this 1m2f trip, the quick reappearance is a risk some will question.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Runs again after just 7 days
Why this score
- There is little recent data for The jockey. Without enough rides, it is hard to judge their form.
TrackLab Insight
Three top-three finishes in four starts suggests real promise, and he's won on this ground before, but a concerning 12th place at Goodwood 50 days ago shows he can still be beaten by a distance. His win rate of 25% is decent, but the long absence is a red flag going into a 30-runner race.
Best record on this ground (1 from 3)
3 straight top-3 finishes
Why this score
- Not enough recent rides for The jockey to judge their form. That is not good or bad news.
TrackLab Insight
Running again just three days after a seventh-place finish at Yarmouth is a curious decision, and his recent form doesn't justify the faith—he's averaging worse than his career 16% win rate. His single strength is on soft ground, which won't be present today, making this a tough ask on the back of a poor run.
Runs again after just 3 days
Why this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 3 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- Not enough recent rides for The jockey to judge their form. That is not good or bad news.
TrackLab Insight
Back again within 48 hours of a third-place finish, which suggests the yard see something in the form, though he's been placed in 7 of 10 career races without breaking through often. His 10% win rate is among the lowest in the field, and while he's suited to this trip on firm ground, he needs to find a way to convert places into wins.
Runs again after just 2 days
Why this score
- Not enough recent rides for The jockey to judge their form. That is not good or bad news.
TrackLab Insight
No clear edge in a competitive field: his 11% win rate is among the worst, he's inconsistent across his 9 races, and while he can win on good ground, he can't win on firm ground. The recent sixth at Ascot suggests he's not running at his best right now, making him a tough sell.
No clear distinguishing angle in this field
Why this score
- Not enough recent rides for The jockey to judge their form. That is not good or bad news.
TrackLab Insight
Winless from 4 races and running back just three days after a 7th place at Redcar is desperation form—he has yet to prove he belongs at this level. With zero wins in 4 attempts, he's the least experienced of the unproven types and has never shown enough to suggest he'll break through here.
Runs again after just 3 days
Why this score
- The jockey has not had many recent rides, so there is little recent form to go on.
TrackLab Insight
Back-to-back placed finishes in her last two races (2nd and 6th) suggest she's finding her feet at age 3, with a 20% win rate from 5 starts. She showed something at Salisbury with a win 101 days ago, and the recent second at Wolverhampton 17 days ago hints she could be building toward another effort.
Placed in 2 of last 3 races
Why this score
- There is little recent data for The jockey. Without enough rides, it is hard to judge their form.
TrackLab Insight
Winless from 4 races with no places either makes this one of the weakest forms in the field, and a 77-day absence before that wretched run suggests he's struggling to find his level. With zero winning experience, he's a tough proposition even in a handicap.
Relatively inexperienced (4 career races)
Why this score
- The jockey has not had many recent rides, so there is little recent form to go on.
TrackLab Insight
Consistent rather than spectacular: 2 wins from 17 races with 9 places shows she finishes in the money roughly every other race, which is respectable. Recent form includes back-to-back finishes (1st, 3rd) followed by a fifth, and she's placed in 2 of her last 3, suggesting she's reliable if not brilliant.
Placed in 2 of last 3 races
Why this score
- The jockey has not had many recent rides, so there is little recent form to go on.
TrackLab Insight
Returning from a staggering 342-day absence is the elephant in the room: he last raced at Chepstow with a 4th place way back in May, and that 5-month break puts serious question marks over his sharpness. While he has a 25% win rate and loves long trips, the layoff is simply too long to expect a competitive run.
Absent 342 days (longest in field)
Why this score
- Has raced 3 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- There is little recent data for The jockey. Without enough rides, it is hard to judge their form.
TrackLab Insight
Three straight top-three finishes followed by a 13th at Doncaster just 7 days ago shows dramatic inconsistency, and he's running back quickly again. His 20% win rate is OK, and he likes this distance on standard ground (50% record), but the recent collapse in form is a major concern.
3 straight top-3 finishes
Runs again after just 7 days
Why this score
- There is little recent data for The jockey. Without enough rides, it is hard to judge their form.
TrackLab Insight
Seven years old and still winning: his 5 victories from 30 races show he's a durable performer with genuine course form (a win at Newbury), though recent form has been patchy with a 4th at Windsor 36 days ago. At his age and with a 17% win rate, he's a lower-tier prospect now despite the class pedigree.
One of the more successful in the field (5 career wins)
Why this score
- The jockey has not had many recent rides, so there is little recent form to go on.
TrackLab Insight
Only 2 career races with a Class 2 win at Ascot and a place from them gives an exceptional 50% win rate, but he's never raced on normal ground—today is an unknown. The 4th at Newbury 23 days ago when stepping down in class is concerning, and the limited data makes him a pure form guess.
Steps up 2 classes
Never raced on normal ground
Lightly raced (2 career races)
Why this score
- The jockey has not had many recent rides, so there is little recent form to go on.
TrackLab Insight
At 9 years old, he's still competitive with 6 wins from 43 races and a course win at Newbury, though recent form is dire with an 8th at Epsom 18 days ago. His 14% win rate is middle-of-the-field, and while he has good ground form, the recent wretched sequence suggests he's past his best.
One of few course winners (1 wins here)
Why this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- The jockey has not had many recent rides, so there is little recent form to go on.
TrackLab Insight
Finally broke through for her first win at Chelmsford in November after 6 races, suggesting she's taking time to find her level at age 5. Her 14% win rate and recent 4th at Salisbury 15 days ago show she's capable enough, but she's not building momentum and needs to improve on that recent close effort.
No clear distinguishing angle in this field