Southwell
·
Handicap Stakes
Starts in
28h 23min
Tapeta surface
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
£1 wins 10p · 9 Could surprise
1 run here without a win. That counts against the horse
9
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 1 run here without a win. That counts against the horse. The track layout may not suit it.
- A 12.5% overall win rate for J. Watson. Good jockeys make better decisions during a race.
- This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
9
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 3 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- Has raced here 3 times without winning. This course has not suited the horse so far.
- 12 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- J. Hart wins 11.9% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- Came home 1st last time out. A good recent run often carries over to the next race.
- W. Muir & Chris Grassick has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 4 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- Has raced here 1 time without winning. This course has not suited the horse so far.
- A 0% career win rate for S. Crisford. That is below the top trainers.
8
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.11 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- With 45 races behind it, this horse knows what to expect. Experienced runners tend to cope better with pressure.
- Racing against weaker rivals than last time. Think of a Premier League team playing in the Championship. The drop in level helps.
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 39 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Facing weaker rivals than last time out. When a horse drops to an easier race, it often finds things easier.
- O. Orr wins 11.1% of all their races. That is a strong record. A jockey who wins often gives a horse a better chance.
- E. Bethell has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.11 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 4 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- Has raced here 1 time without winning. This course has not suited the horse so far.
- Has had 23 days off since its last race. That is a routine gap that should not help or hurt.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.11 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- Has run 1 time at this track with no wins yet. Some horses do not take to some courses.
- This is a 12-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Racing against weaker rivals than last time. Think of a Premier League team playing in the Championship. The drop in level helps.
- H. Morrison wins 12.6% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- A 12-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has yet to win over this distance. It is like asking a sprinter to run a marathon. Distance matters, and this horse has not shown it can win here.
- Has run 2 times at this track with no wins yet. Some horses do not take to some courses.
- Finished 9th last time, which was a disappointing run. A poor last run raises questions about the horse's current form.
8
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced 6 times on this ground with a low win rate. Today's ground may not suit it.
- A prize fund of £3,140 is healthy. When trainers aim at valuable races, they usually have faith in their runner.
- M. Wigham wins only 0% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.11 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- E. Lavelle wins 13.5% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- Only 10th last time out. That is not what we want to see before today's race.