Southwell
·
Handicap (Div 1)
Starts in
31h 23min
Tapeta surface
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has yet to win over this distance. It is like asking a sprinter to run a marathon. Distance matters, and this horse has not shown it can win here.
- H. Charlton has a good 17% record here. A trainer who does well at one course is worth noting.
- 6f may not be the right distance. Distance is one of the basics, and this one is a worry.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Facing weaker rivals than last time out. When a horse drops to an easier race, it often finds things easier.
- No wins at this distance yet. We cannot tell if the race is too long, too short or just right.
- R. Spencer has a 0% win rate at this course. It is not their strongest track. Some stables do better at some tracks than others.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has run 1 time at this track with no wins yet. Some horses do not take to some courses.
- With a 10.4% win rate overall, B. Garritty is one of the more dependable riders.
- An 11-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Racing against weaker rivals than last time. Think of a Premier League team playing in the Championship. The drop in level helps.
- D. Muscutt wins 15.3% of their races at this course. Knowing the track is an advantage for any jockey.
- A 0% record at this course for R. Cowell. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- There is £4,972 in prize money in this race. That attracts good horses, and this one looks to belong among them.
- Has won over this distance 1 time. We know the horse can last this far, which removes one big question.
- A 0% record at this course for E. Bethell. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
9
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- J. & Suzi Best wins 25% of their races at this course. Some trainers aim horses at particular tracks, and this one does well here.
- Has won 1 time over this distance. That is a good sign the race length suits the horse.
- Finished 10th last time, which was a disappointing run. A poor last run raises questions about the horse's current form.
9
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- 1 run here without a win. That counts against the horse. The track layout may not suit it.
- Has yet to win over this distance. It is like asking a sprinter to run a marathon. Distance matters, and this horse has not shown it can win here.
- An 11-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- Has raced here 6 times without winning. This course has not suited the horse so far.
- An average finish of 2.7 over the last three races. Finishing near the front this often is a good sign.
- This is an 11-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 19.7% overall win rate for W. Haggas. That suggests a trainer who picks the right races for their horses.
- W. Haggas wins 19.7% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- Facing tougher rivals than last time. It is like moving up to a harder league. The step up is a challenge.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- M. Appleby wins 10.8% of all their races. That is a solid record. Good trainers get horses ready well and pick the right races.
- A 10.9% win rate at this course for K. Stott. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
- M. Appleby wins only 5.7% of the time here. That weak record at this course counts against the horse.
Fair price
TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £1.10 back.
How odds workWhy this score
- A 9.2% win rate at this course for K. O'Neill. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
- K. O'Neill has won 8.3% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
- Stepping up to a harder race today. As with any step up, the question is whether the horse is good enough for this level.