Plumpton
·
Aine Mellett 40th Birthday Handicap Hurdle
Awaiting result
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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Why this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 3 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- With an 8.4% win rate overall, M. Goldstein is one of the more dependable riders.
- This is a 16-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Second-highest rated in the field alongside two others, but those three course runs recently tell a mixed story — a near-miss in second place last autumn has been followed by a fourth and then a fifth here at Plumpton. Zero wins from 13 career races is the defining fact, and it's hard to see what changes today.
2nd highest rated (OR 98)
Why this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 6 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- Has won over this distance 2 times. We know the horse can last this far, which removes one big question.
- A 16-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
The only horse in the field who has already won over this exact course and distance, which is a concrete advantage in a wide-open race. However, two very poor runs since that win — beaten 25 lengths and then 46 lengths — make it hard to trust, and the horse has never won on normal ground across six attempts. Course form is a real asset; recent form is a real concern.
Only course winner (1 from 3 here)
Has won over this course and distance
Why this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 5 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- Rated 98 by the official rater. That is a strong number based on past results.
- A 16-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Shares the second-highest rating in the field and was beaten just half a length here at Plumpton three weeks ago, which is the freshest and most relevant piece of form in the race. Nine career races without a win, and the jockey-trainer pairing have yet to find the winner's enclosure together in six tries — but that near-miss last time is hard to dismiss.
2nd highest rated (OR 98)
9
Lord Of The Glance
Handles this ground well, with 33% of its races won on it
15
Why this score
- Handles this ground well, with 33% of its races won on it. The ground can change a horse's chances a lot.
- B. Carver has a good 20.8% record here. Knowing the course is one of a jockey's biggest strengths.
- 16 runners today is not the number this horse wants. The number of runners changes how a race is run.
TrackLab Insight
The most remarkable entry on the card — this horse ran at Market Rasen just two days ago and finished second, and now lines up again almost immediately, which is almost unheard of. The data shows zero wins in five runs on the type of ground we expect today, so conditions don't obviously suit. Worth watching in the market to see if the yard are confident, but the rapid turnaround is a real physical question.
Runs again after just 2 days
Why this score
- This type of ground has not suited the horse: 5 runs without much success. Some horses prefer different ground.
- Facing weaker rivals than last time out. When a horse drops to an easier race, it often finds things easier.
- This is a 16-runner race, and the size is not ideal. A big field means more traffic. A small field means nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Stepping up two classes today after a third-place finish at Taunton, and the long-term form is patchy — a pulled-up run two months ago sits alongside that third place in recent outings. Zero wins from five runs on normal ground, and a poor record on right-handed tracks, makes today's conditions look awkward. Hard to make a case for this one.
Steps up 2 classes
Why this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 16 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- A prize fund of £4,040 is healthy. When trainers aim at valuable races, they usually have faith in their runner.
- A 16-runner race works against this horse. Too many runners can mean getting boxed in. Too few can mean nowhere to hide.
TrackLab Insight
Shares the lowest official rating in the field but showed a flash of something at Taunton 18 days ago, finishing second beaten just over 2 lengths — the best run in some time. The problem is a career record of 1 win from 32 races, and this horse has never won here at Plumpton in six attempts. One encouraging run doesn't easily outweigh that history.
Best record at this trip (1 from 15)
Why this score
- The jockey has not had many recent rides, so there is little recent form to go on.
TrackLab Insight
The standout on paper by some distance — rated 7lbs clear of the next-best in the field, and with a career win rate of roughly 1 in 3, this is comfortably the most prolific winner in the race. Normal ground is the one question mark, with zero wins from 7 races on similar conditions. That's a genuine concern, but the class edge over every rival here is hard to ignore.
Top rated by 7lbs
Best record on this ground (2 from 4)
Absent 179 days (longest in field)
Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
Why this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 8 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- The jockey has not had many recent rides, so there is little recent form to go on.
TrackLab Insight
Shares second-highest rating in the field and has been busy lately, with three runs in the past three months keeping her sharp. Six placed finishes from 15 career races show she consistently competes without winning, and her regular jockey has never won with her across eight rides together — a pattern that's hard to overlook.
2nd highest rated (OR 98)
Why this score
- There is little recent data for The jockey. Without enough rides, it is hard to judge their form.
TrackLab Insight
Beaten just a length and a half here at Plumpton last time out, and has now finished second in two of three career runs at this track — yet has never won in five attempts here, which is the nagging worry. The trainer is in decent form with 1 win from 2 in the past fortnight, and this horse is clearly finding its level, but converting those near-misses into a win remains the challenge.
Placed in 2 of last 3 races
Why this score
- The jockey has not had many recent rides, so there is little recent form to go on.
TrackLab Insight
Twenty-four career races and 3 wins, which makes this one of the more experienced horses in the field, but the form has dried up badly — six consecutive runs without a win and the last six finishing positions read 5-4-4-5-3-5. The data also shows this horse has never won on normal ground across four attempts, which doesn't help today.
One of the more successful in the field (3 career wins)
Why this score
- A low win rate on this ground from 5 previous runs. The ground could work against the horse today.
- Not enough recent rides for The jockey to judge their form. That is not good or bad news.
TrackLab Insight
Stepping up two classes today after a promising third here at Plumpton just three weeks ago, beaten less than a length — that run was at a lower level and the jump in class makes life harder. Just 1 win from 12 career races, and the record on normal ground is a blank from five attempts. The class rise is a significant ask.
Steps up 2 classes
Why this score
- There is little recent data for The jockey. Without enough rides, it is hard to judge their form.
TrackLab Insight
By far the most experienced horse in the field with 42 career races — more than double the field average — but that experience has produced just 1 win, and the recent runs have all come in a lower class on artificial surfaces. This horse has never won on normal ground across any number of attempts, and the class and conditions both look wrong today.
Most experienced (42 runs, field avg 16)
Why this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- The jockey has not had many recent rides, so there is little recent form to go on.
TrackLab Insight
Only 3 career races in, so there's genuine unknowing here — lightly raced horses can improve sharply, and the data is simply too thin to write this one off entirely. That said, beaten 30 lengths here at Plumpton three weeks ago and 102 lengths at Fontwell before that suggests the level of improvement needed is significant. The least experienced runner in the field alongside Trooper.
Lightly raced (3 career races)
Why this score
- Not enough recent rides for The jockey to judge their form. That is not good or bad news.
TrackLab Insight
Rated 8lbs below the field average, and the last completed finishing position here at Plumpton was a third beaten just over 2 lengths — respectable form at this track. However, the data shows this horse has never won on normal ground from 7 attempts, and the most recent run at Wetherby is listed without a finishing position, leaving a gap in the form picture.
Among the more experienced (24 career races)
Why this score
- The jockey has not had many recent rides, so there is little recent form to go on.
TrackLab Insight
Three races, three finishes in sixth, sixth, and eighth place — and beaten between 47 and 66 lengths each time, which goes beyond a horse that's simply unlucky. Lightly raced at six years old, which is unusual, but nothing in the form suggests this level is within reach today. The lowest-rated runner in the field alongside Mi Sueno, and the form gives no encouragement.
Lightly raced (3 career races)
Why this score
- There is little recent data for The jockey. Without enough rides, it is hard to judge their form.
TrackLab Insight
Rated 15lbs below the field average and the lowest-weighted horse in the race — that weight allowance theoretically helps, but nothing in the form suggests it'll matter. Six races without a win or a place, finishing as low as ninth, and today is a first run on normal ground with no data on how the horse handles it. This is a horse with a lot still to prove.
Lowest rated, 14lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Never raced on normal ground
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.