This season tells a more complicated story. Sullivan has managed 25 winners from 417 rides, which works out at roughly 1 in every 17 — a win rate of 6%, down from 8% last year. That dip is worth paying attention to. It is not a collapse, but it does suggest he is going through a period where either the opportunities or the results are not quite clicking the way they were. In a job where momentum matters, small slides in confidence can compound quickly, so how he responds over the coming months will be interesting to watch.
His most important professional relationship is with trainer Ruth Carr, and the numbers there are notably stronger. From 303 rides together, Sullivan has delivered 22 winners — a win rate of 7%, or roughly 1 in every 14. That kind of sustained partnership, built over hundreds of races, is rare. Carr clearly trusts him with her horses regularly, and Sullivan repays that trust often enough to keep the arrangement working. In northern racing, where yards rely on dependable stable jockeys rather than big-name hires, that loyalty is currency.
There are also specific conditions where Sullivan visibly improves. On wet or muddy ground, he has won 1 from just 7 rides — 14%, or roughly 1 in every 7 — which is more than double his overall rate. That is a small sample, but it hints at a rider who reads a race differently when the ground gets testing and horses need more patient handling. Beverley racecourse is another place worth noting: 4 winners from 20 rides there, a 20% win rate, meaning he wins 1 in every 5 races at the track. For a circuit known for its tight turns and unusual camber, that kind of local expertise is genuinely valuable — it is the sort of thing trainers remember when they are deciding who to book.
Sullivan is not yet a household name, and this season's numbers suggest he has some ground to make up. But 145 career winners in four years, a trusted trainer partnership, and a clear ability to perform at specific venues and in specific conditions — the foundations are real.
| Course | Races | Wins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southwell | 68 | 2 | 2.9% |
| Newcastle | 63 | 3 | 4.8% |
| Wolverhampton | 58 | 7 | 12.1% |
| Redcar | 33 | 0 | 0% |
| Beverley | 20 | 4 | 20% |
| Catterick Bridge | 20 | 2 | 10% |
| Pontefract | 19 | 3 | 15.8% |
| Doncaster | 19 | 0 | 0% |
| Ripon | 18 | 0 | 0% |
| Thirsk | 15 | 0 | 0% |
| Hamilton Park | 14 | 1 | 7.1% |
| Ayr | 14 | 1 | 7.1% |
| York | 8 | 0 | 0% |
| Haydock Park | 8 | 0 | 0% |
| Carlisle | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
| Nottingham | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
| chelmsford | 6 | 0 | 0% |
| Musselburgh | 6 | 0 | 0% |
| Chester | 5 | 0 | 0% |
| Epsom Downs | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| Leicester | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| Newmarket | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| Lingfield Park | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Goodwood | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Ascot | 1 | 0 | 0% |