Indemnity

The numbers tell the story. On normal ground, Indemnity is transformed: he has won five of 11 races (45 percent) in those conditions, compared to the relative struggle elsewhere. Distance matters too. At tracks between a mile and six furlongs and two miles, he has won 2 of 4 races (50 percent), which suggests he knows what to do when he settles into his rhythm. His best performances come in Class 4 races—the meat-and-potatoes level of British racing—where he has three wins from nine attempts (33 percent). His last victory came at Plumpton on 5 April, six months ago, and he has been actively racing since, which speaks to Lavelle's intent to keep him sharp.

Harry Cobden has ridden him twice, winning both times (40 percent), and there is a practical note in how jockeys describe him after races. One praised his jumping and his flat speed; another observed that Indemnity needs a strongish pace up front to operate at his best, where he can pick rivals off late. Lavelle herself says he is bigger and stronger this season than last, and though a recent run at Ascot against stiffer opposition was a decent effort, she suspects his real power lies on faster, sharper tracks like Aintree or Kempton. The picture that emerges is a horse who is improving with maturity, who runs best when he is fresh and when conditions favour a late finishing kick. After just racing yesterday, he is clearly in active use. Expect him to deliver more wins before the season closes.