Thirsk

Won at Ascot 30 days ago and has been placed in two of his last three races, so he arrives in decent form and his odds have shortened slightly as a result. His best record comes on fast, dry ground — two wins from six races in those conditions — and today's normal ground is close to that. The step up in class and a big field of 18 are the main tests.

All three of his career wins have come on good ground, giving him a 30% win rate in those conditions — the best ground-specific record for any horse in the field on normal turf. The problem is that today's going is described as normal rather than good, and he has zero wins from nine races on normal ground. The ground classification could make or break his chance.

He has won over this exact course and distance at Thirsk before, and two of his four career wins have come at Class 2 level — the top end of British racing — which suggests he has real ability when things click. He's been running consistently here lately too: 3rd and 6th in his last two races at Thirsk. The negative is a blank record on right-handed sharp tracks like Thirsk over five wins, which is a contradiction worth noting.

A genuinely unusual standout: he has never raced on normal ground in his entire career, making today a complete unknown. His two wins have come on fast, dry ground — a 33% win rate in those conditions — but he has zero wins from six races on normal ground, and zero from nine on good ground. Without evidence he handles today's conditions, it's hard to make a case.

Won at Beverley five weeks ago but followed it up with a 20th-place finish at York last time — beaten 13 lengths — which is hard to brush aside. He's never won on fast ground and today's normal conditions may not be ideal either. At 21s, the market doesn't believe the York run was a blip.

The second-highest rated horse in the field at OR 85, but the market has cooled significantly on him — drifting from 12s out to 19s. He's been placed four times in his last five races without winning, and his record on right-handed sharp tracks like Thirsk is a concern: no wins from seven tries. Hard to get excited at these odds.

Won at Pontefract just nine days ago, so he arrives here on the freshest winning form in the field. Interestingly, his two career wins both came on good-to-soft ground, yet he has no wins from six races in soft or muddy conditions and none in three on fast ground — today's normal ground sits right between those extremes, which is an unknown. He also finished 14th here at Thirsk just 15 days ago, so this track hasn't been kind.

At 12 years old, he is comfortably the oldest horse in the field — most horses his age are long retired — yet he won at Beverley less than a month ago and has finished in the top three in three straight races before that. The concern is he has never won on fast or normal ground in nine attempts, which is a real problem today. A remarkable old character, but the ground is working against him.

The editorial verdict singles him out, and he has won over this exact course and distance before — a genuine positive in an 18-runner field. However, he finished 17th here at Thirsk just 15 days ago, beaten over 16 lengths, and his record on normal ground reads zero wins from 10 races. The odds have shortened from 29s to 21s, so something is attracting interest despite the recent form.

One win from 17 races — roughly 1 in every 17 — and that single victory came back in July 2024, nearly a year ago. His last six results read: 13th, 13th, 10th, 18th, 8th, 11th — there's no obvious form pointer to suggest a turnaround is coming. He also has no wins from eight races on fast ground, and at 51s, the market agrees he faces a very steep task.

The most experienced horse in the field by some distance — 66 career races compared to a field average of 27 — but he hasn't raced in 192 days, the longest absence of anyone here, and that layoff is a significant concern. His record on normal ground is actually solid (five wins from 28 races at 18%), but he has zero wins on good or soft ground, which shows how specific his conditions need to be. At 51s, the market reflects the rust.

A big price at 41s and the lowest-rated horse in the field, carrying a weight 13lbs below the top weight. His last win came at Chester nearly a year ago, and he's finished 9th and 13th in his last two races. There's some appeal on good ground — one win from three — but there's not enough recent evidence to suggest he's about to spring a surprise.

Won at Ripon 23 days ago but followed it with a 13th at Hamilton, beaten nearly 16 lengths — hot and cold form that is difficult to rely on. He has no wins from nine races on good-to-soft ground and none from three on fast ground, with today's normal conditions another unknown for him. The draw in stall 17 on the wide outside also offers little help in an 18-runner field.