The race favourite and the editorial nap — yet the official data here shows just one career race, a fourth at York 18 days ago, which tells you this horse carries significant unexplored potential. Described as ex-French, it is lightly raced by any measure and the market has been shortening, moving from 6s into 4.6s. When a horse with almost no form on paper attracts this kind of support, the trainer almost certainly knows more than the record suggests.
Lightly raced (1 career races)Market favourite (4.6)
Wearing visorWon 0 of last 5Loves this ground (33% win rate)
TrackLab Insight
The best career win rate in the field — winning roughly 1 in every 4 races — and the market has been shortening on this one, always a sign worth noting. The concern is the ground: on fast, dry conditions like today's, Pole Star has gone winless in four attempts. Third at Newmarket four weeks ago keeps the form ticking over, but that ground record is a real flag.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 4)
Trainer Quotes
Apr 2026
"I thought he ran like he was a little bit rusty on his comeback. He's got entries in a one-mile-six-furlong handicap at the Guineas meeting and the Chester Cup, but William Buick suggested coming back in trip, so Newmarket is the most likely of his options. I'm sure he'll come on for Friday's run and it wouldn't surprise me to see him land a big one this season. 21-04-26"
Wearing blinkersWon 0 of last 5Loves this ground (33% win rate)
TrackLab Insight
Fitted with blinkers and second last time out by less than a length at Salisbury, Anniversary arrives in decent nick for a horse that's been frustratingly hard to win with — just one win from nine races. The standout data point here is the ground: on normal conditions like today's, this horse has won 1 from 3, the best record on this surface in the field. Rossa Ryan is a strong booking, and this is one of two shortlisted picks in the editorial verdict.
Fresh (128 days off)Won 2 of last 5Loves this ground (25% win rate)Won at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
The standout statistic here is remarkable: on soft, wet ground, this horse wins half the time. Today's normal conditions, however, are where it has never won in four attempts — a stark contrast. It also has the best record at this two-mile trip of any horse that has run over it, and two wins in a row before a 128-day break give it solid recent form to build on.
Best record at this trip (1 from 3)
Trainer Quotes
Jul 2025
"He was progressive last year and I think he'll be the same this season. He ran a great race first time up at Hamilton, where he travelled well from off the pace and looked as if he was going to do some damage but made quite a big move at a tough time and got tired. He's pretty ground dependent, he needs it soft, and is entered in the Old Newton Cup and a £100,000 race at the Newmarket July festival. If it came up soft, the Ebor could be a fun race for him. 02-07-25"
Wearing cheekpiecesWon 0 of last 5Has won on this groundWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
A horse that has drifted from 15s out to nearly 20s on race day, which is the market cooling on its chances — and the data offers a reason why. Almuhit's best form comes on fast, dry ground and medium distances, but today is a two-mile test on normal ground, and it has never won in 12 attempts on right-handed tracks — Thirsk is one of those. Hard to see it reversing that trend here.
Eight career wins from 37 races and a horse that earns its keep — but the real headline is the two-mile record: St Faz wins 46% of its races at this sort of distance, one of the best long-trip records in the field. A win at Musselburgh last month keeps the form current, and this is one of two horses shortlisted by the editorial team. The concern is a historically poor record on right-handed tracks, though Thirsk is left-handed, which helps.
One of the more successful in the field (8 career wins)
A horse with a stunning record at Chelmsford — winning 3 from 4 there — but Thirsk is a very different track, and on good, normal conditions like today's, Mountain Road has failed to win in six attempts. It also has a poor record on left-handed tracks, and Thirsk is one of them. Recent form shows a string of near-misses rather than wins, and today's conditions look against it.
Won 2 of last 5Raced here beforeHas won on this groundWon at this distance 2 times
TrackLab Insight
By far the most experienced horse in the field with 50 races under its belt — the field average is 20 — and it has banked eight wins along the way, mostly on standard ground where it wins at a rate of 1 in every 3.5 races. Today's normal conditions suit it on paper, but the worry is a poor record on anything firmer than that, and it has drifted in the betting from 17s out to 19s.
The numbers at this distance are genuinely eye-catching: New York Minute wins 50% of its races over two miles or further, the joint-best long-distance record in the field. Back-to-back placed efforts — third, then second — show a horse in good form, even if the market has drifted it to 17s. The worry is normal ground, where it has never won in three tries.
Won 0 of last 5Raced here beforeHas won on this groundWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
An eight-year-old that has placed 17 times from 29 races but only converted four of those into wins — this is a horse that competes honestly without quite finding a way to win. Last time out was a heavy defeat at York, and at 51/1 the market has written it off. The ground suits it less well than most alternatives in the field, and it is yet to win at York in six attempts.
Carries the lowest weight in the field — 12lbs less than the top-rated Elysian Flame — which is a genuine advantage in a race like this where every pound matters over two miles. Recent form is the best it has looked all season: a win at Ripon followed by a second at Haydock. The official rating is the lowest here, but the weight allowance and improving trajectory make this one worth a second look.
Lowest rated, 11lbs below averageCarries lowest weight in field
The top-rated horse in the field by 3lbs, which sounds impressive until you factor in that this ten-year-old has only raced four times in its entire career and won just once. That sole win came at Beverley last month, so the form is fresh — but a horse this lightly raced at this age raises more questions than it answers. At 26/1, the market isn't convinced either.
Wearing cheekpiecesFresh (407 days off)Won 0 of last 5
TrackLab Insight
The most straightforward profile in the race: zero wins, zero places from two career races, and now returning from over 400 days off — the longest absence in the entire field by some distance. There is almost no data to work with here, and what little exists offers no encouragement. Difficult to make a case for at 51/1.
Lightly raced (2 career races)Absent 407 days (longest in field)
Won 0 of last 5Raced here beforeHas won on this groundWon at this distance 1 time
TrackLab Insight
Eight wins from 46 races sounds solid, but the last three runs — sixth, fourteenth, sixth — make for grim reading, and the market has drifted this one from 19s out to 29s. On normal ground like today's, Gibside has never won in three attempts. Best form comes on soft, wet ground where it wins 1 in every 2 races, but today's conditions are the wrong side of that divide.
One of the more successful in the field (8 career wins)
How do odds work?The first number is what you win, the second is what you bet. So 5/2 means you win £5 for every £2. 4/1 means you win £4 for every £1. The bigger the first number, the less likely bookmakers think the horse will win — but the more you'd win if it does.