American Bay

Those two wins have both come on fast, dry ground, and that tells you something important. On that surface he has won 2 of his 6 races, a rate of 33% — one in every three. Take away the wet days and the unsuitable conditions, and suddenly you are looking at a horse with a genuine profile rather than just a horse that turns up. Both victories have come at the shorter distances too, between five and six and a half furlongs, which is where he has run all but a handful of his races. The most recent win came at Thirsk in June 2025, and Midgley has been open about the fact that in the race immediately after, American Bay was only just beaten — the winner, he reckons, got away with it by not racing closer to him.

The current puzzle is that he has not won in his last six outings, and his most regular jockey David Nolan has yet to get him into the winner's enclosure across five rides together. That said, recent form reads 7-5-2-3-3-6, meaning he has been placing consistently without converting — the kind of run that suggests a horse is doing its job rather than falling apart. He raced just yesterday, which tells you Midgley is keeping him busy and active.

What makes the story interesting is what Midgley said on a stable tour in August 2025. He described the whole journey as "trial and error" — figuring out the trip, the conditions, the track — and he believes the horse is still maturing. Another winter, he says, will strengthen American Bay considerably, and when that happens, his current official rating will not reflect what he is truly capable of. For a horse that has earned his two wins the hard way, on quick ground over a sharp sprint trip, that is a compelling thought. The pieces are still being assembled.