American Bay
American Bay has won just twice in 31 races—a win rate of roughly 1 in every 15 starts—but
Paul Midgley, who trains him at Westow in North Yorkshire, sees genuine potential beneath those modest numbers. The 5-year-old's recent form has been patchy (finishing 13th, 7th, 9th, 7th, 5th, and 13th in his last six races), and he has not found the winner's circle since Thirsk on 17 June 2025, more than a year ago. Yet Midgley is not disheartened. He reckons American Bay will improve significantly once he matures and gains strength through another winter, and that his current rating underestimates what he can achieve.
Based on TrackLab's analysis
📊 Key numbers
Career totals for this horse
🔍 Full analysis
Our model's view, based on this horse's career and recent runs
The trainer believes the horse has shown real promise at Thirsk over 5 furlongs, winning there and running strongly in recent attempts over the same course and distance. Midgley even felt his last run deserved better—had the winner attacked sooner, he thinks American Bay would have closed the gap. The horse clearly thrives on fast, dry ground: he has won 2 of his 8 races on quick surfaces (a 25% win rate), compared to nothing from his other 23 attempts. The catch is that he struggles in Class 4 company, where he has not won in 13 races, suggesting that finding the right level and conditions matters as much as time does.
Midgley paid a decent price for American Bay and likes what he has, even if results have not followed. The yard itself is in form, with 39 winners sent out this season. American Bay was last in action just a day ago and remains actively racing, so his chance to prove his trainer right could come soon—though probably not until the ground firms up and a more suitable race appears.
⚡ Strengths and risks
What helps this horse and what to watch out for
✓ What works in their favour
✔ Excellent record on good_to_firm ground: 2 wins from 8 starts (25%)
⚠ What to watch out for
⚠ Poor record on good ground: 0 wins from 12 starts
⚠ Poor record on standard ground: 0 wins from 7 starts
🎯 Where this horse runs best
Results split by ground, distance, race level and track shape
🌧 Ground
Good to firm (fairly firm)
Loves
Standard to slow (all-weather)
Unknown
Good to soft (some give)
Unknown
Good (a little give)
Avoids
Standard (all-weather)
Avoids
🏅 Race level
Class 2 (high-level)
Avoids
Class 4 (standard)
Avoids
Class 5 (entry-level)
Loves
🏟 Track shape
Left-handed, long straights
Likes
Left-handed, hilly
Unknown
Right-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Right-handed, hilly
Avoids
Right-handed, long straights
Avoids
📅 Recent runs
The last 10 races, most recent first
16 Oct
13th
Haydock Park
5f – 6½f · Heavy · 14 runners
19 Sep
7th
Newcastle
5f – 6½f · Standard · 10 runners
4 Sep
9th
Haydock Park
5f – 6½f · Heavy · 12 runners
13 Aug
7th
Beverley
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Firm · 12 runners
1 Aug
5th
Thirsk
5f – 6½f · Good · 12 runners
11 Jul
13th
York
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Firm · 20 runners
20 Jun
2nd
Redcar
5f – 6½f · Good · 10 runners
31 May
7th
Thirsk
5f – 6½f · Good · 18 runners
2 May
5th
Thirsk
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Firm · 11 runners
24 Mar
2nd
Wolverhampton
5f – 6½f · Standard · 6 runners
🏇 Jockeys
Every jockey who has ridden this horse, most rides first
🏟 Course record
Win rate at each course this horse has visited
| Course | Races | Results | Last run | Win rate |
|---|
| Thirsk Galloping |
5 |
1 win, 1 second, 3 other |
1 Aug |
20% |
| Haydock Park Galloping |
4 |
4 other |
16 Oct |
0% |
| Wolverhampton Galloping |
4 |
1 second, 2 thirds, 1 other |
24 Mar |
0% |
| Newbury Galloping |
3 |
3 other |
29 Aug |
0% |
| Redcar Galloping |
2 |
1 win, 1 second |
20 Jun |
50% |
| York Galloping |
2 |
2 other |
11 Jul |
0% |
| Ascot Galloping |
2 |
1 third, 1 other |
10 May |
0% |
| Southwell Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
23 Sep |
0% |
| Beverley Undulating |
1 |
1 other |
13 Aug |
0% |
| chelmsford |
1 |
1 other |
12 Oct |
0% |
| Pontefract Undulating |
1 |
1 other |
30 Apr |
0% |
| Goodwood Undulating |
1 |
1 other |
21 Jun |
0% |
| Salisbury Undulating |
1 |
1 second |
10 Aug |
0% |
| Kempton Park Galloping |
1 |
1 second |
16 Oct |
0% |
| Ripon Sharp |
1 |
1 other |
17 Apr |
0% |
| Newcastle Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
19 Sep |
0% |