American Bay

Midgley, who has sent out 39 winners from his Westow base this season, admits it has been a process of trial and error to find what suits American Bay. The horse showed promise over six furlongs on his debut at that distance, but it turns out five furlongs is where he really clicks. He broke his career duck at Redcar in September 2024, then won again at Thirsk in June 2025 — and Midgley believes Thirsk over five furlongs is a setup that genuinely suits him. He was just pipped there last week, and the trainer is convinced that with a different race shape — had the winner come to him rather than the other way around — American Bay would have won.

The ground matters enormously with this horse. On fast, dry ground he has won 2 of his 7 races — that is 29%, or nearly 1 in 3 — which is a dramatically different animal from the one who has drawn a blank across 13 races at the level he usually competes at. In wet or normal conditions, those two wins simply haven't come. When the sun is out and the ground is riding fast, he becomes a genuine threat.

David Nolan has ridden him five times without a win, and American Bay has not won in his last six races, with recent finishes of 13th, 2nd, 7th, 5th, 2nd, and 3rd. He raced just yesterday, so he is very much in the thick of his campaign right now.

What makes this profile genuinely interesting is what Midgley says about the future. He believes American Bay is still physically developing — that another winter will strengthen and mature him — and that when that happens, his current rating will look too low. The trainer paid decent money for him and clearly rates him. For a horse still finding himself at five, with a soft spot for a specific track, a specific distance, and fast ground, American Bay looks less like a plodder and more like a puzzle that is close to being solved.