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Newcastle

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Newcastle (AW)
Awaiting result
Flat race · weights set to make it fair Underrated horse: Monty Beau +2 About 1.3 miles Unknown Entry-level race 10 runners
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Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score

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Monty Beau Underrated horse
J. Callan · H. Palmer · 5yo · 9st 9lb · Official rating 75
£1 wins £4 · 22 Strong chance
H. Palmer's horses finish 75% of their races
Headgear Form
22
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Odds 4/1
£1 wins £4 · 22 Strong chance
Underrated horse

We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £5.00 back.

How odds work
✓ Trainer form ✓ Jockey wins at this course ✓ Last run finishing position
Wearing cheekpieces Won 1 of last 5 Raced here before
Why this score
  • H. Palmer's horses finish 75% of their races. That steady record suggests good preparation.
  • A 24.1% win rate at this course for J. Callan. Jockeys who know a track well can pick the best ground and time their run.
  • A 12.2% career win rate for H. Palmer. That is below the top trainers.
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £6.00 back.

How odds work
Won 0 of last 5 Raced here before
Why this score
  • J. Candlish's runners finish 42.9% of their races. Trainers whose horses finish often tend to have them fit and ready.
  • A 16.8% win rate at this course for J. Candlish. Trainers who know a course often send out their horses well suited to it.
  • J. Candlish has a 12.9% overall win rate, which is on the low side. That may mean the horse is not at its best.
Underrated horse

We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.

How odds work
Won 0 of last 5 Raced here before
Why this score
  • D. O'Meara's runners finish 50% of their races. Trainers whose horses finish often tend to have them fit and ready.
  • Has run 4 times at this track with no wins yet. Some horses do not take to some courses.
  • Starting from stall 11 does not help today. The starting position matters more than many people think.
Underrated horse

We think it's more likely to win than the odds suggest, so if it wins, it pays more than it should. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £10.00 back.

How odds work
Trainer in form Won 1 of last 5 Won here 1 time
Why this score
  • I. Jardine's horses finish 61.5% of their races. That steady record suggests good preparation.
  • A. Mullen has ridden 2 winners in their last 4 rides. A jockey on a good run is a plus.
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £17.00 back.

How odds work
Has won at this course and distance Won 1 of last 5 Won here 2 times Won at this distance 6 times
Why this score
  • Good prize money on offer. When trainers aim at valuable races, they usually have faith in their runner.
  • Finished 1st in the last race, which is a good result. A good last run suggests the horse is in good shape.
  • This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £11.00 back.

How odds work
Won 0 of last 5 Raced here before
Why this score
  • B. Ellison's horses finish 50% of their races. That steady record suggests good preparation.
  • The prize money suggests a competitive race that has attracted decent horses, and this one belongs among them.
  • C. Hardie has a 4.6% overall win rate, which is lower than we would like to see. A jockey who wins less often can hold back even a good horse.
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £67.00 back.

How odds work
Has won at this course and distance Wearing blinkers Back quickly after its last run Won 1 of last 5 Won here 5 times
Why this score
  • J. Goldie's horses finish 55.6% of their races. That steady record suggests good preparation.
  • Has won over this distance 2 times. We know the horse can last this far, which removes one big question.
  • Has won here 5 times in 24 visits. That record at this course is a good sign.
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £34.00 back.

How odds work
Wearing cheekpieces Won 0 of last 5 Raced here before
Why this score
  • M. Appleby's horses finish 41.2% of their races. That steady record suggests good preparation.
  • Has raced here 1 time without winning. This course has not suited the horse so far.
  • Carrying 126 lbs today, which is a lot of weight. The extra pounds take their toll as the race goes on.
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £101.00 back.

How odds work
Trainer in form Won 0 of last 5 Raced here before Won at this distance 1 time
Why this score
  • B. Haslam's runners finish 66.7% of their races. Trainers whose horses finish often tend to have them fit and ready.
  • Dropped to an easier race today. It is like being the big fish in a smaller pond. The lower standard should suit.
  • Carrying 130 lbs today, which is a lot of weight. The extra pounds take their toll as the race goes on.
Fair price

TrackLab and the bookies agree on this horse's chances. Bet £1, and if it wins you get £126.00 back.

How odds work
Has won at this course and distance Wearing cheekpieces Back after 82 days off Jockey in form (3 wins in 14 days) Won 0 of last 5
Why this score
  • Good prize money on offer. When trainers aim at valuable races, they usually have faith in their runner.
  • D. Nolan has won 11% of their races in their career. That steady record counts for a lot.
  • This trainer's horses often do not finish their races. That makes them harder to trust.
What the colours mean
40+ Very strong chance 20–39 Strong chance 12–19 Solid chance 6–11 Could surprise Under 6 Long shot Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.

What these words mean

Underrated horse
We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
Our top pick
The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
TrackLab Score
Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
Ground
How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
Race level (Class)
From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
Group, Grade and Listed
The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
Handicap
The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
Maiden
A race for horses that haven't won yet.
Novice
A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
Chase, hurdle and bumper
Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
Distance (m and f)
m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
Each way
A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
Weight
How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
Jockey claim
An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
Headgear
Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
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