Bearwith

The real insight into Bearwith comes from the surfaces he runs on. He absolutely prefers normal ground conditions, winning 4 of 13 races on it — roughly 31 per cent — which tells you something important about what suits him. Put him on fast, dry ground and his record dips noticeably. The trainer has acknowledged that Bearwith has dealt with wind issues this season, which may have made him trickier to predict, but that hasn't stopped him winning. He claimed victory at Doncaster in June, and most recently at Newcastle on 25 July, five weeks ago, when Bethell described him as down to a favourable mark in what proved to be a winnable race.

Redcar holds particular appeal for Bearwith: he has won 2 of his 5 races there, suggesting the track plays to his strengths. When ridden by Cam Hardie — his most frequent partner — Bearwith wins at a 24 per cent rate, nearly 4 in every 17 rides, which is substantially better than his career average. Most of Bearwith's wins have come in Class 5 races, the everyday level of the sport, where he competes regularly. His recent form has been mixed: two fifth-place finishes sandwiched around some lower placings, though he ran well enough to earn a spot in the race just a day ago. For a horse his age, still racing actively and still capable of winning, Bearwith represents honest, reliable value — the kind that keeps small yards ticking over season after season.