Boubyan

Distance also matters. Over 1 mile 3 furlongs to 1 mile 4 furlongs, Boubyan has won 1 of his 5 races (20 percent), double his overall rate. When the race is shorter or longer, he struggles to impose himself. Michael Appleby's yard at Oakham has been prolific this season with 71 winners, so Boubyan is part of a well-functioning operation. Jockey Hollie Doyle has ridden him 7 times, winning once (14 percent), which is slightly above his career average and suggests the partnership is working.

His recent form is mixed. In his last 6 races he has placed twice — finishing 5th and 5th again — but he has also run poorly, twice finishing outside the top 4. This is a horse that runs to a narrow brief: bring him to Newcastle over the right distance in a Class 5 race and he is a genuine contender. Take him elsewhere, stretch or shorten the trip, and he becomes a long-odds proposition. For punters, that specificity is useful; for Appleby's team, it means picking his races carefully.