Musselburgh
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Lucas Ice Cream Apprentice Handicap Stakes
Awaiting result
Turf track
Detail:
All runners, sorted by TrackLab Score
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40+ Very strong chance
20–39 Strong chance
12–19 Solid chance
6–11 Could surprise
Under 6 Long shot
Scores in a race add up to 100.How scores workModel estimates, not guaranteed. Past performance is no guide.
What these words mean
- Underrated horse
- We think this horse has a better chance than the bookmakers' odds suggest.
- Our top pick
- The horse with the highest TrackLab Score in the race.
- TrackLab Score
- Our model's estimate of a horse's chance of winning, as a number out of 100. The scores in a race add up to 100.
- Ground
- How the going was on the day, from Firm (hard and dry) to Heavy (very wet and muddy). On all-weather tracks it's Standard, Fast or Slow.
- Race level (Class)
- From Class 1 (elite) down to Class 7 (lowest).
- Group, Grade and Listed
- The top races. Group 1 on the Flat and Grade 1 over jumps are the highest level, then 2 and 3. Listed races sit just below.
- Handicap
- The handicapper gives better horses more weight to carry, so in theory they'd all finish together.
- Maiden
- A race for horses that haven't won yet.
- Novice
- A race for horses that are new to this type of race.
- Chase, hurdle and bumper
- Chase: jumps over fences. Hurdle: jumps over low hurdles. Bumper: a flat race for young jump horses.
- Distance (m and f)
- m is a mile and f a furlong, about 200 metres; 8 furlongs make a mile.
- Each way
- A bet that pays out if your horse wins or finishes in the top 3 (how far down it pays varies by race). It is really two bets.
- Weight
- How much the horse carries, including the jockey. 9st 5lb means nine stone five pounds.
- Jockey claim
- An apprentice jockey can claim a weight discount, so the horse carries a little less.
- Headgear
- Blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue tie, hood and eyeshield change what the horse sees or feels.
Our top pick for this race
Strong chance
Why this score
- A 22% win rate on this ground from 9 runs. Just like people, horses have favourite surfaces. This one likes today's ground.
- Has had 51 career runs, so it is an experienced racehorse. Experience helps in a tough race.
- A 6.1% record at this course for P. Morris. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Six career wins from 51 races makes this one of the more experienced horses in the field, and a second-place finish two weeks ago shows it retains some ability. However, it has never won on wet or muddy ground, and today's dry conditions at Musselburgh could test it in a different way — its best form comes over slightly shorter distances than today's 1m 1f. The jockey-trainer combination has yet to win together in 16 attempts, which is a concern.
One of the more successful in the field (6 career wins)
Why this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- J. Goldie has won 9.7% of their races in their career. Trainers at this level know how to get horses ready.
- Last raced 16 days ago. That is a normal gap between runs.
TrackLab Insight
The form horse in this field — won at Ayr just 16 days ago and finished third and fourth in its two previous runs, both here at Musselburgh. It wins roughly 1 in 6 races overall, the best career win rate in this field, and has a strong record on dry ground with 2 wins from 7 attempts on this type of surface. A recent winner who clearly likes this track, it has more going for it here than most of its rivals.
Best career win rate in field (1 in 6)
Why this score
- 9 runners today is a good number for this horse. The number of runners affects how a race is run.
- A prize fund of £3,664 is healthy. When trainers aim at valuable races, they usually have faith in their runner.
- A 6.1% record at this course for P. Morris. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
One win from 33 races is a tough record to look past, and the most striking fact here is that this horse has never raced on dry ground — today will be a completely new experience. It does place regularly and has finished second twice in recent runs, but converting those efforts into a win on an unfamiliar surface looks a big ask. The same jockey-trainer combination as Bajan Bandit, who have yet to win together in 16 races.
Never raced on dry ground
Why this score
- Has only raced on this type of ground once or twice, so it is hard to say if it suits the horse.
- With a 17.6% win rate overall, C. Whiteley is one of the more dependable riders.
- A 0% record at this course for G. Harrison. This is not a track where the trainer has done well.
TrackLab Insight
Zero wins from 18 races, and it ran seventh — beaten over 14 lengths — just two days ago at Redcar, which makes today's appearance extremely soon after a poor effort. Rated 10lbs below the field average, it is the least well-regarded horse in this race on official figures. First-time partnership with its jockey, and there is very little in the data to suggest a turnaround is coming here.
Lowest rated, 10lbs below average
Carries lowest weight in field
Runs again after just 2 days
Why this score
- The trainer has a good record of getting horses to finish races. That is a plus.
- There is little recent data for The jockey. Without enough rides, it is hard to judge their form.
TrackLab Insight
Running for the second time in three days, which is unusually quick, but the form that brings it here is genuinely strong — a win followed by two consecutive second-place finishes, the most recent beaten just a fifth of a length at Musselburgh 21 days ago. It wins roughly 1 in 10 races overall but has a notably better record at today's distance of 1m 1f to 1m 2f, winning nearly 1 in 4 at those trips. The freshness question matters, but this is clearly a horse in the form of its life.
Runs again after just 3 days
Why this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- Has raced here 1 time without winning. This course has not suited the horse so far.
- Not enough recent rides for The jockey to judge their form. That is not good or bad news.
TrackLab Insight
The youngest horse in the race at three years old, and it takes a significant jump up in class today — three levels above what it has been competing in. No wins from seven career races, though a third-place finish at Hamilton 10 days ago was its most encouraging recent effort. Stepping into much deeper water here makes it hard to see this as the day everything clicks.
Steps up 3 classes
Why this score
- Very little experience on today's ground. With so few runs, we cannot say if it suits the horse.
- There is little recent data for The jockey. Without enough rides, it is hard to judge their form.
TrackLab Insight
The standout fact here is that this is the only horse in the field with a win recorded at today's distance of 1m 1f — a record of 1 win from 3 races at the trip, which is far better than anything its rivals can show at this specific distance. It does arrive having not raced for 61 days, which is a long break, and it has never won on dry ground in five attempts — a clear flag given today's conditions. A genuine course-and-distance specialist that needs to prove its fast-ground form.
Only winner at this distance
Best record at this trip (1 from 3)
Why this score
- There is little recent data for The jockey. Without enough rides, it is hard to judge their form.
TrackLab Insight
Ran eighth at Ayr just yesterday, beaten over seven lengths, and is back in the saddle again today — an extremely quick turnaround after a poor display. Its record on dry ground is zero wins from seven attempts, which makes today's fast conditions look unfavourable, and it has also failed to win on left or right-handed galloping tracks across a combined 15 races. Hard to find a reason to be optimistic.
Runs again after just 1 days
Why this score
- There is little recent data for The jockey. Without enough rides, it is hard to judge their form.
TrackLab Insight
Won at Catterick less than a month ago and finished third here at Musselburgh on its previous visit, so there is genuine recent form to point to — and it has the best record on dry ground in this field, winning 1 from 4 on this type of surface. The concern is that its last run, nine days ago at Ayr, resulted in a ninth-place finish beaten almost 11 lengths, which is a sharp reversal. If the Ayr run can be forgiven, this is a horse with a live chance on today's dry ground.
Best record on this ground (1 from 4)