Bajan Bandit

The real story lies in the detail. In Class 4 races, where Bajan Bandit typically competes, it wins roughly one in every five starts: four victories from 18 races is a genuine strength. More telling still is its preference for fast, dry ground. On those surfaces, it has won 2 of its 9 races, a 22 per cent win rate that stands out sharply against its overall record. This is a horse that needs firm footing and proper-sized fields to show its best. It won as recently as last week at Newcastle, on 19 September, proving it remains sharp and competitive at age six.

The recent form, however, tells a rougher story. In its last six races, Bajan Bandit has finished third, first, twelfth, second, third and second. That twelfth-place run—most recent before the Newcastle win—suggests the horse can struggle when something is not quite right, whether that is ground, opposition, or how it is being ridden. Sam James, its regular partner, has ridden it nine times for just one win, a win rate of 11 per cent that mirrors the overall record without improvement.

Patrick Morris's yard at Prescott, in Merseyside, has sent out 18 winners already this season, so there is competence in the training. For Bajan Bandit, the pattern is clear: watch for it when the ground is dry and fast, the race is Class 4, and the horse is in an upswing. On those days it can win. On others, it tends to fill a place and move on.